Every Wednesday of the 2022 season, ESPN will combine with Champion Data to provide an in-depth analysis on a particular hot topic in the AFL.
It's no surprise that athletes across the globe, regardless of sport, will hit their prime at different stages of their lives. But it's a general belief that if you're in your late 20s, you're in your peak, or at least best placed to make your biggest impact.
So, ESPN decided to put this to the test by measuring the output of every AFL player that has played at least 100 games since 2001 to see how they performed at each age.
To do this, we're using Champion Data and their Rating Points system to accurately measure one's influence on an AFL match.
Rating points are accrued or debited based on an algorithm which looks at equity ratings of an AFL game. It looks at the stat being performed by a player, the location on the ground and what happens next to determine the value of a player's contribution to the likelihood of a team scoring.
For example, kicking a goal after a handball receive in the goal square will receive fewer points than a player taking a contested mark 50 metres out and kicking to an uncontested teammate in the goal square.
Below is a line graph portraying the average rating points over the last 21 years by age and position (up to Round 10, 2022):
The majority of footy players will actually hit their peak at 24 (10.58 Rating Points) and tend to hold that level of performance until they're 27 (10.51).
But the 'drop off' from there isn't drastic. In fact, the average rating points of all players from all positions is highest when they're 37 (11.56) - granted this age has only been seen in a team line up 76 times since 2001, compared to the most common age of 27 (7,499 games).
To explain those numbers, there haven't been 7,499 27-year-olds compete, but rather that amount of times a player of that age has featured at AFL level. Basically, if Player X plays 15 games while he's 27, his stats would contribute to 15 of the 7,499 games calculated.
The 30+ cohort still has a very real place in the game, with 35-year-olds (10.41) still having more impact than 28-year-olds (10.28). The average of the 14,462 games rated for those beyond the age of 30 is actually a very strong 10.22, while, clearly, players tend to struggle at the other end of the spectrum, as teenagers (19-20-year-olds average 8.42).
It makes sense as coaches are more likely to name a fit and healthy (and experienced) 31-33 year-old than blooding a raw, untried teenager in their matchday squad, depending on the team's ambition, of course. But for reasons such as retirements or performance declines leading to delistings, there is an evident drop in the volume of players 32 and over, despite their always-dependable statistical output.
This could also explain the benefits of teams having experienced, durable players and therefore extra cool heads on the field, as the older you get the less likely you are to be on a list, but those who are still around are producing some of the highest averages. It's little wonder the likes of David Mundy, Scott Pendlebury, Joel Selwood and Lance Franklin can still single-handedly win games for their respective clubs, and all via different traits.
AFL players make their quantum leap of improvement (+0.8) at the age of 22 after four AFL preseasons, with players like Carlton's Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh, Bulldogs gun Bailey Smith, Saints spearhead Max King and Fremantle ball magnet Andrew Brayshaw filling this cohort in 2022.
The trends do differ by specific position, however.
General defenders hit their peak at 24 years (9.5 Rating Points) and hold it for two seasons, but a 31-34-year-old general defender (2,051 games) averages 9.6.
General forwards will reach prime performance sooner and hold it for longer, averaging 9.93 Rating Points between the ages of 22-27. This includes an early-career peak of 10.32 as a 22-year-old, and not again reaching those heights until more than a decade later, where eventually 36-year-olds average 14.7 - the highest of any other age and position, or in other words, the most influential AFL players since 2001.
In a complete contrast, the case study suggests key forwards don't peak until 31, while it is true that ruckmen also take a little bit longer to develop, peaking at 28.
Age really is just a number, even in footy terms.
Here's a breakdown, by position, of when AFL players reach their peak:
General defenders
Optimal range: 24-25 (average rating points: 9.43)
Peak year: 34 (10.31)
General forwards
Optimal range: 22-27 (average rating points: 9.93)
Peak year: 34 (14.71)
Key defenders
Optimal range: 24-28 (average rating points: 9.33)
Peak year: 35 (10.94)
Key forwards
Optimal range: 25-31 (average rating points: 10.21)
Peak year: 31 (11.21)
Midfielders
Optimal range: 23-29 (average rating points: 12.63)
Peak year: 26 (13.07)
Mid-forwards
Optimal range: 26-27 (average rating points: 11.32)
Peak year: 35 (13.4)
Ruckmen
Optimal range: 27-30 (11.64)
Peak year: 36 (12.98)
Wingmen
Optimal range: 22-24 (average rating points: 10.46)
Peak year: 22 (10.63)
Overall
Optimal range: 24-27 (average rating points: 10.56)
Peak year: 37 (11.56)