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          The Six Points: Worrying stats for the Lions; the Dogs just aren't that good

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          Rocket: 'You could feel the passion' for Tasmania launch (1:22)

          Proud Tasmanian Rodney Eade says the "interest and passion" in the launch of the Tamsania Devils earlier this week was electric, after the club surged past 125,000 foundation members on Wednesday. (1:22)

          • Jake Michaels, Senior WriterMar 19, 2024, 08:50 PM
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula One, basketball to boxing, and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.
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          Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

          This week's Six Points feature the spluttering Lions and Bulldogs, Carlton's history-making run, the shock early Coleman Medal favourite, and why James Sicily continues to fail the Hawks.

          1. There's reason to be concerned about Brisbane ... but time is on their side

          Alarm bells should be ringing, and ringing loudly, at Brisbane after a pair of relatively lacklustre performances to open season 2024.

          In Opening Round, Carlton stormed from 46 points down to cause the boilover, while this past weekend they failed to get the better of Fremantle, a side that finished 14th last season. Not great.

          There was a familiar theme in both contests with the Lions twice allowing unanswered eight-goal opposition runs and both times there was very little resistance shown from a defensive standpoint. For context, through the entirety of 2023, Brisbane conceded an unanswered eight-goal run just once.

          "It's something new to have those drop offs in the middle of the game," said Lions coach Chris Fagan after the loss to the Dockers. "I don't have an early theory, I must admit. I haven't seen them coming, both times that they've occurred. You don't want teams to score a lot of goals in a row, and that's happened twice in a row now."

          The Lions have always been a low disposal team under Fagan, but they've been able to hang their hat on scoring from turnover, and, more recently, scoring from clearance. It's early, but there's real concern in both areas. Brisbane finished last season +13 points per game in points from turnover differential, this year they are -7. Meanwhile, scores from clearance has dropped from +7 in 2023 to -5 thus far this campaign.

          The good news? Time is on their side. It's 0-2, not 0-6. The rare, early bye has come at an opportune time and it should allow Brisbane a chance to reset before facing Collingwood in what's shaping as a season-defining Grand Final rematch at the Gabba in Round 4.

          2. Everyone needs to lower the expectations around the Bulldogs

          The Western Bulldogs just aren't that good. It's that simple. But they aren't terribly bad, either.

          In fact, since their 2021 Grand Final loss to Melbourne, the Bulldogs rank a middle-of-the-road ninth for points for and a middle-of-the-road ninth for points against. If that doesn't signal bang average team, I'm not sure what does.

          Despite this, each year the expectation surrounding the club seems to be inflated. A top four finish is always on the cards, while anything short of a finals berth feels like a seismic failure -- at least that's what everyone tells me. It's time the expectation is lowered.

          The Bulldogs don't have trouble winning the ball, ranking third-best for ground ball differential and second-best for time in forward half since the start of 2022. But they continually fail to take advantage, ranking bottom six each year for scores per inside 50.

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          Some of the blame falls on the forward six, but a large portion also has to fall on Luke Beveridge. The game style of refusing to use the corridor and attack with speed (the Bulldogs rank 18th for corridor use since the start of 2022) offers the opposition defensive time to set up and find its structure behind the ball.

          Beveridge also has some explaining to do regarding the decisions to name Caleb Daniel as the substitute in Round 1 and leave Jack Macrae -- who has managed to play practice games unscathed -- out of the team entirely. Daniel simply has to be starting, as he proved after he was injected into the game, while Macrae, even with a dip in production in 2023, remains a no-doubt best 23 player.

          So what should they do?

          It might be time for something drastic. Aaron Naughton was recruited as a key back and has spent the vast majority of his young career attempting to play at the other end of the ground. Is it worth swinging him back, giving the forward line keys to Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and bringing Sam Darcy into the team? If not now, when?

          3. Putting 'cardiac Carlton' into perspective

          Four points. Four points. Six points. Two points. One point. And, now, five points.

          Blues supporters have had plenty to celebrate in recent times, but boy have they had to bite fingernails and deal with raised blood pressure in the process!

          These last six wins, dating to Round 22 last season, have a cumulative margin of 22 points and an average winning margin of just 3.67 points. And that is history-making!

          Another interesting Carlton tidbit is that despite a 17-1-10 record since the beginning of last season, the Blues have only led 48% of game time. A curious footy club, indeed...

          4. Suspension or not, James Sicily is failing the Hawks

          It's no secret that James Sicily is one of my favourite footballers. In my mind, he's the best all-around defender in the game, and heading into the season I ranked him as the 10th best player in the league.

          And while all of that can be true, so too can this: Sicily is failing his teammates and letting his side down far too often.

          For the third time since the beginning of last season, Sicily was handed a suspension -- this time for kicking Essendon's Andrew McGrath. And while the penalty has since been downgraded to a fine, the act simply isn't good enough for the captain of a football club.

          FACT: The Hawks were 0-4 without Sicily last year and lost those four games by an average margin of 49 points.

          I can't believe I'm saying this, but Sicily needs to take a leaf out of the Toby Greene playbook. We're talking about two players who were stars of their respective positions, albeit a little unhinged at times. Both were handed club captaincy last year, and while Greene has managed to rein in the emotions, Sicily still seems to struggle with it.

          He needs to control that white line fever and be better. Don't give the MRO a reason to suspend you; it's as simple as that.

          5. If Jesse Hogan stays fit, there's no reason he can't win the Coleman Medal

          Jesse Hogan has never kicked 50 goals in a season. Crazy, huh? It's also worth noting he's never managed to play a full season.

          The former Demon and Docker could not have asked for a better start to 2024. Hogan backed up his four goals in Opening Round against the Magpies with a haul of six last weekend against North Melbourne. Through two games, he has contributed 87 points to his team (scores and score assists), 37 points more than second-ranked Harry McKay.

          "The last 18 months have been pretty fun. It's probably the most fun period I've had playing footy," Hogan said on Monday. "My body's been pretty good to me."

          Relax, I'm not saying he's on track for 100 goals -- Jeremy Cameron burned me on that last year -- but what I will say is, given the Giants' dominance, Hogan's a serious chance of winning the Coleman Medal. And that's something many would have scoffed at only a year or two ago.

          Since the start of last year, Hogan ranks first for marks, third for marks inside 50, and third for ground ball gets among key forwards.

          He has kicked 35 goals since Round 17, 2023, and only back-to-back Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow has kicked more in that time. Hogan's also bagged at least four goals on five occasions in that span, more than anyone else. Keep your eyes on him.

          6. The AFL is taking the mickey with this fixturing quirk

          Pop quiz: how long do AFL quarter time and three-quarter time breaks last?

          Answer: it depends.

          You've probably never noticed -- or cared enough -- but something bizarre has been going on with these game breaks. In Round 1, five of the nine games had the more traditional six minute stoppage, while the other four had six minute and 30 seconds of break time.

          It's the same in Round 2:

          The inconsistent breaks between quarters wasn't the only fixturing quirk to catch my eye this past weekend. The AFL has had its early rounds locked away for months, yet for some reason the posted start times of several games were never the times the league intended to actually start. Again, only for some, just to make things a little more confusing.

          There were four games last week that started two minutes later than the AFL had listed. This week, four more have that treatment. Watch for St Kilda-Collingwood, Sydney-Essendon, Western Bulldogs-Gold Coast, and Richmond-Port Adelaide all to start exactly two minutes later than they should.