Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.
This week's Six Points features sound reasoning why Max Gawn shouldn't be All-Australian in 2024, the rare air in which Patrick Cripps finds himself, and why it would be negligent for the Tigers to win against the Suns.
1. Patrick Cripps just won his second Brownlow Medal ... and he's only getting better
If you believe my ESPN Brownlow Medal predictor, Patrick Cripps' epic performance against West Coast last weekend just won him a second Brownlow Medal.
For the record, with one round to play, I have Cripps on 32.5 votes, leading Nick Daicos (29.5) and the ineligible Isaac Heeney (27.5). At worst, Cripps will tie for 'Charlie', meaning he will win the AFL's most prestigious individual award for the second time in three years. But this season has been otherworldly from the Carlton captain, significantly better than his 2022 campaign. Here's proof:
Everything is up across the board, except goals. In 2022, Cripps booted 20 majors, this year, he's currently sitting on 16. But he's been more accurate and amassed a greater tally of goal assists in 2024, so maybe that evens it out.
Of course, the predictor is just that: a predictor. But if he does win it, Cripps will join Adam Goodes, Gary Ablett Jr., Chris Judd, Nat Fyfe, and Lachie Neale as the only two-time winners this century. Fair company. And all of the above numbers suggest he wouldn't look out of place amongst those modern day titans. Cripps has put the Blues on his back for the better part of a decade, improving not only his on field production but also his leadership skills to now firmly be one of the AFL's premier modern day captains.
2. Rowan Marshall should be an All-Australian lock in 2024
The footy public fawning over Melbourne ruck Max Gawn is nothing new. It's also something that no longer surprises me. But I can honestly say I'm stunned he has seemingly been grandfathered in to another All-Australian team at the expense of St Kilda's Rowan Marshall.
By just about any metric, Marshall has had a better season than Gawn. He simply must be the No. 1 ruck in this year's All-Australian team.
Who wins more ball? Marshall. Who wins more clearances? Marshall. Who takes more marks? Marshall. Who kicks more goals? Marshall.
Gawn hasn't had a poor season, far from it. In fact, he's been fantastic. But Marshall has clearly been the better of the two and deserves his first All-Australian blazer. His ability to follow up, tackle, and take a combination of intercept, contested, and uncontested marks has made him the greater asset around the ground; something that has long been Gawn's calling card. He hits the scoreboard at a higher rate and gains significantly more territory, yet, amazingly, most people still have Gawn and even North Melbourne's Tristan Xerri ahead of him.
Now it's true Gawn has the slight edge in ruck work, but if we're picking the All-Australian ruck purely on the tap element, Champion Data's numbers will tell you Jarrod Witts should be getting the nod.
The question is not who has had a greater career or even who is the superior player, it's who has had the better season? I urge everyone to park all of the prior knowledge of these two players and focus solely on 2024. Do that, and Marshall's name will come out on top.
3. I told you time and again Essendon was wildly overrated
People love keeping receipts from those in football media, but it's funny how they only ever seem to resurface when it's a failed call.
Three months ago I shouted from the rooftops Essendon was not winning the premiership. I told you they weren't playing finals. And I told you that, in terms of list quality, they were closer to the bottom-four than a genuine contender. I was mocked mercilessly for it, but now I'm having the last laugh.
Once again, the Bombers have capitulated. The 8-1-2 record they amassed in the first half of the year now reads 11-1-10. Finals are off the table and everyone is wondering what happened to this team. But as I continually pointed out, the warning signs were obvious.
Even when Essendon sat second on the ladder, they never ranked top six in any of the eight offensive or defensive metrics in Champion Data's premiership report. After 11 games, they also had the the lowest percentage of any top-two side in AFL history.
Red Time's Jake Michaels and Jarryd Barca discuss Essendon's pros and cons ahead of the new season.
With one game to play, the Bombers have fallen to 11th, having won the same amount of games as they did in last year's failed season. They also have the fourth-worst percentage in the league. Despite what much of the media wanted to sell and the hype fans were desperate to believe, this team was never remotely legitimate in 2024.
You all might not have kept this receipt, but I certainly have!
4. Richmond must ensure they lose against Gold Coast
Twelve months ago, North Melbourne sprung the ultimate surprise by knocking off Gold Coast in the final round of the season, jumping from last place to 17th and giving up the opportunity to draft Harley Reid with the first selection of the national draft.
There's a real sense of déjà vu as we approach the final round of this season.
The 18th-placed Tigers face those very same Suns this weekend and a win would likely lift them out of the wooden spoon position they've occupied for much of the season. And while there is no ultra consensus, can't-miss top pick as there was 12 months ago with Reid, winning this game would be borderline club malpractice for Richmond. Obviously, there's no condoning of tanking, but they simply cannot walk away from the MCG with the four premiership points.
Season 2024 has been disastrous for the Tigers. They've won just two games, waved goodbye to club icon Dustin Martin, and have given fans very little to get excited about for 2025. There's nothing positive to be gained by winning this game. Instead, take another loss, secure the top selection in this year's draft and take the first step to rebuilding the club.
5. Why Nick Daicos' second quarter against Brisbane wasn't that good ... apparently
A 30-minute second quarter burst from Nick Daicos flipped last weekend's Collingwood-Brisbane game on its head and was the catalyst for the Magpies' at-the-time season-saving one-point win.
In the second term, Daicos racked up 14 disposals, nine kicks, four score involvements, and booted two incredible goals. He also took three marks and laid two tackles. One of the great quarters of footy, right? Well, not if you ask Champion Data. According to their patented Rating Points metric, he scored just 7.9 which ranked it as the 867th-best quarter played in 2024!
Champion Data also believes it to be the 44th-best quarter played in Round 23 and the 48th-best quarter produced by a Collingwood player this season. They also have nine recorded Daicos quarters this season that are supposedly better.
So why is that? Despite the two goals, Daicos only used the ball at 43% efficiency in that second quarter. Given nine of his 13 possessions were uncontested, I'm happy to concede that's a relatively poor return. But the 867th-best quarter of the year!? Come on. I'm still not buying that for a second.
6. The AFL has finally nailed the fixture
Some may say better late than never, but why do we have to wait until the final round of the season to get a Sunday slate that makes sense and one fans actually want?
The AFL has opted to stagger the final three games of the home and away season, offering each its own airtime in a bid to drag out the late season drama. This week, games begin at 12:30pm, 3:20pm, and 6:10pm (all AEST), while, usually, Sundays feature 1:10pm, 3:20pm, and 4:40pm bounces. The former is exactly how the Sunday schedule should look every single week, as it means clear air and no overlapping games.
The only real impediment I can see is whether or not east coast footy fans can handle a 9pm Sunday evening finish, as the late game cannot consistently be played in Western Australia. If the answer to that question is 'yes', then surely this is a no-brainer.