When the NFL released its schedule in April, it was immediately obvious that the Detroit Lions had a tough stretch at the beginning and end of the season.
That effects of that schedule haven’t changed in my revised 2015 predictions. This should be a talented team this season, and one that will be competing for a playoff berth, but the first and last months of the year are brutal, which is why I’ve only bumped the Lions up by one game from my initial prediction -- I now think they will finish 9-7. That should put them in the playoff conversation.
I wrestled with myself over whether their record would be 9-7 or 10-6 -- that’s the difference between likely landing a playoff berth and maybe missing the cut. The road games and the order they're played in combine to make the schedule just a bit too tough, so I stuck with 9-7.
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at San Diego, 4:05 p.m. Fox
These teams are fairly similar, and the Lions get San Diego without Antonio Gates, which will be a help. But the running game is still a question, with Joique Bell not getting preseason work, and the defense remains a question since Haloti Ngata hasn’t played yet. It’s a close one, but good teams find a way to win at home, and San Diego is good enough. Chargers 21, Lions 17. Record: 0-1.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 20 at Minnesota, 1 p.m. Fox
The Vikings should be improved offensively and defensively from last season, and the combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson in the backfield could give the Lions fits as they figure out the defense. Add in that this is Peterson’s first game at home since his suspension and the situation doesn't look good for Detroit. Vikings 28, Lions 23. Record: 0-2.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Denver, 8:30 p.m. NBC
Jim Caldwell might know Peyton Manning as well as anyone in the NFL, and while that hardly guarantees a win, it does mean the team will be well aware of how Manning ticks. This is a game Detroit has to have if it is going to be competitive, and that urgency will permeate Ford Field. Lions 34, Broncos 31. Record: 1-2
Week 4: Monday, Oct. 5 at Seattle, 8:30 p.m. ESPN
When Detroit safety Glover Quin broke down the team’s schedule during the offseason, even he admitted this would be a difficult game to win. That hasn’t changed. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson against the Legion of Boom will be fun to watch, but the defending NFC champs will have too much at home in a raucous Monday Night atmosphere that turns into a defensive battle. Seahawks 20, Lions 13. Record: 1-3
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 11 vs. Arizona, 4:05 p.m. Fox
This is one of the games I considered flipping from my initial prediction. The Lions are probably a better team than Arizona, but coming back from the West Coast on a short week against one of the most physical teams in the NFL is not easy. Consider, too, that opponents last season were 3-11 the week after playing Seattle. All of that leads to a close loss for Detroit. Cardinals 23, Lions 17. Record 1-4.
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 vs. Chicago, 1 p.m. Fox
The Bears are going to be the worst team in the division. Detroit has won four straight in the rivalry for the first time since the 1970s, and the Bears are already dealing with injuries and other questions. Lions 31, Bears 14. Record: 2-4
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 25 vs. Minnesota, 1 p.m. Fox
Minnesota and Detroit are close enough in talent this season that will probably split their two games. Since the Week 2 matchup, the Lions should have gotten a better handle on their defense and learned what Ngata can do. Lions 28, Vikings 20. Record: 3-4
Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Kansas City in London, 9:30 a.m., Fox
Having played a game in London last season -- and so having experience with the time change, the locker room, the field, and so on -- should give Detroit some familiarity. Plus, there’s a chance that despite it being a road game, fans who were watching last season might favor Detroit, making London a neutral site or even effectively a home game. Lions 27, Chiefs 21. Record: 4-4.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at Green Bay, 1 p.m., Fox
The Lions haven’t beaten the Packers in Wisconsin in over two decades. Despite fielding one of the better teams in their history, the Lions wilted in a de facto NFC North title game last season. This Detroit team is good, but as long as Aaron Rodgers is quarterbacking the Packers, the Lions winless streak continues. Packers 29, Lions 20. Record: 4-5
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Oakland, 1 p.m. CBS
The Lions have more talent and more experience than the Raiders. They are also hitting the stretch where they have to win to stay alive in the playoff race. Too much depth for Oakland, especially in Michigan. Lions 31, Raiders 14. Record 5-5.
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Philadelphia, 12:30 p.m., Fox
After years of struggling on Thanksgiving, the Lions have now won two in a row. Chip Kelly’s offense will push the Lions’ rotations, but Detroit’s offense should be able to match the Eagles. This is a coin-flip game that the Lions win because they are at home. Lions 30, Eagles 27. Record: 6-5.
Week 13: Thursday, Dec. 3 vs. Green Bay, 8:25 p.m. CBS/NFLN
This game will be the loudest Ford Field has seen in years, especially at the beginning. Expect that to energize the Lions, with a defensive score being the difference as the Lions and Packers split their games for another season. Lions 24, Packers 17. Record: 7-5.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 13 at St. Louis, 1 p.m., Fox
Coming off two straight high-energy games and traveling to face another team fighting for a wild-card berth makes this a difficult game to win for Detroit. The St. Louis defensive line is one of the few capable of getting to Matthew Stafford often, and that makes a difference. Rams 24, Lions 17. Record: 7-6.
Week 15: Monday, Dec. 21 at New Orleans, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Like the Rams game, if this were in Detroit, I’d likely pick the Lions. But the Superdome has been a difficult place to play in the Drew Brees era, and this game has the potential to be a shootout, just like the Lions' 2011 playoff loss. It should be a little closer than that, but a late Brees score proves the difference. Saints 35, Lions 28. Record: 7-7.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 27 vs. San Francisco, 1 p.m. Fox
The Lions are in win-or-out mode the rest of the way here and they face San Francisco, a team that will struggle to figure everything out this season. Coming off two straight road losses, the Lions take out their frustration on a Niners team playing for the future. Lions 35, 49ers 17. Record: 8-7.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, 2016 at Chicago, 1 p.m., Fox
This is the one game on the schedule I flipped from April. The Bears have the least talent in the division and will be well out of the playoff hunt by now. While weird things can happen at Soldier Field, the Lions know they need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. And they do. Lions 27, Bears 17. Record: 9-7.