OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- Before the season, if someone would've said the Baltimore Ravens had a better than 50% chance of reaching the playoffs without Lamar Jackson, it would’ve resulted in laughter 100% of the time.
But this is where the Ravens stand with four weeks remaining in the regular season: a favorable shot at making the postseason even with the uncertain status of Jackson, who sprained his right ankle in Sunday’s 24-22 loss in Cleveland.
“We’ll see where it goes this week,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Monday.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens have a 72% chance of reaching the playoffs if Jackson misses one game because of an ankle injury. Baltimore’s postseason chances are 58% if Jackson is sidelined the rest of the season.
How is this possible for a depleted roster like Baltimore’s? The combination of promising backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, a stingy defense, the most accurate kicker in NFL history and the mediocrity of the AFC North all make the Ravens the favorite to win their third division title in four seasons.
The Ravens (8-5), who lead the AFC North by one game, certainly have their flaws. The pass protection on the edges is struggling (an NFL-worst 47 sacks allowed). Turnovers continue to hurt this team (whether it’s a fumble in the red zone or a strip sack for a touchdown). Penalties, whether they’re questionable or not, have proven costly (37 in the past four games).
Baltimore, however, has overachieved, considering it has placed 23 players on injured reserve at some point this season. The Ravens have lost their top two running backs (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards), an All-Pro left tackle (Ronnie Stanley), two Pro Bowl cornerbacks (Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters), a starting safety (DeShon Elliott) and a starting defensive end (Derek Wolfe) for the entire season.
Now, Baltimore is dealing with the possibility of Jackson being sidelined. After nearly rallying from 21 points down Sunday against the Cleveland Browns before falling 24-22, the Ravens don’t believe they’ll flinch in making a run to the playoffs with or without Jackson.
“I think right now, we’re just used to the next guy stepping in,” Ravens safety Chuck Clark said. "Whoever is out there, we expect the standard out of everybody that’s on this team.”
Trust in Huntley
When asked about their confidence in Huntley, Harbaugh and the players say just look at what he has done on the field. On Nov. 21, Huntley led a winning, fourth-quarter drive in his first start in Chicago after Jackson was too ill to play. On Sunday, he was a couple of passes away from recording the largest comeback in Ravens history.
Huntley’s poise in pressure situations has been just as remarkable as his moves in the open field, which bodes well if he has to start during this important stretch. He totaled 315 yards (270 yards passing and 45 yards rushing) in Cleveland, which were the most by a Ravens quarterback in five games. Huntley made quite the impression in how he handled the blitz and made plays by scrambling.
Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney said Huntley is “a little quicker” than Jackson.
"He made the whole defense miss. He juked us all,” Clowney said. "I said on the sideline that I think we need Lamar back out here.”
Behind this offensive line, it might be a risk for the Ravens to play a less-than-full-strength Jackson over Huntley, especially with critical AFC North games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh looming.
Stingy defense
The Ravens are going to be in games no matter who the quarterback is, as long as their defense continues to slow down teams.
Sunday’s loss in Cleveland marked the fifth straight game in which the Baltimore defense held an offense below 20 points. Take away the Browns’ last touchdown -- which was a strip sack and score by Myles Garrett -- and the Ravens' defense shut out the Browns for the game’s final 38 minutes, 15 seconds.
Under defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale, Baltimore once again held strong despite challenging circumstances. This was the first game since cornerback Humphrey, the team’s best defender, suffered a season-ending pectoral muscle injury. To make matters worse, Calais Campbell, the team’s top defensive lineman, played only six snaps because he injured his thigh.
“I just think it shows how resilient we are,” linebacker Josh Bynes said. "We’ve shown that through our games this year, all season, practically. Just showing that regardless of what’s been put in front of us, whatever happens during the game, we know how to try to pull it together.”
It doesn’t get any easier for the Ravens' defense, which now faces Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford in the next three weeks.
Best kicker in the game
The Ravens believe they always have the upper hand -- or leg, to be more precise -- in close games.
Justin Tucker is the most accurate kicker in NFL history, as well as this season. He has converted 93.3% of his field goals this season (28-of-30), while the rest of the NFL’s kickers have made 83.3% of their attempts (620-of-744). Tucker has also connected on 56 straight field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime.
On Sunday, Tucker nearly won the game with two field goals from 50 yards or longer, and the Ravens’ first successful onside kick in two decades.
"The fact we have him to get points is a difference-maker,” Harbaugh said. "He’s worth his weight in gold.”
Division for the taking
The Ravens have to believe they can still win the AFC North because everyone has struggled to unseat them. Baltimore has remained in first place even though it has lost three of its past five games.
The AFC North has been sputtering for the past month. Since Week 10, teams have combined for a 7-10-1 mark (.417), and no team has a winning record during that stretch.
With a one-game lead, the Ravens should be able to capture the division if they can win at least two of their last four games: home against the Green Bay Packers, at the Cincinnati Bengals and home against the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers. Baltimore just has to avoid any ties due to a 1-3 record in the division.
"Each one of those four games represents an opportunity for us to get where we want to go,” Harbaugh said. "I’m excited for that opportunity. We have tough, high-character people. It’s the NFL, we’re in a fight. We’re in a fight to get what we want, and we’ll be fighting."