A quarterback controversy hasn't arrived yet in Buffalo, but how long will it take for the Bills to consider making a change?
As the Bills prepare for Sunday's regular-season opener against the New York Jets, the official stance of first-year coach Sean McDermott is Tyrod Taylor is the starter. McDermott used those words after Thursday's preseason finale, learning his lesson after his vague comments earlier in the preseason were interpreted as Taylor's job was in jeopardy.
While McDermott's faith in Taylor is evident, the reality is the coach can change his mind at any point. Just because McDermott had "all the confidence in the world" in Taylor in August does not mean that same feeling will exist in October, November or December.
In fact, public opinion about Taylor -- which is already wavering -- could further erode as soon as Sunday, in two distinct ways.
The first scenario is Taylor missing the opener because of a concussion suffered in an Aug. 26 preseason loss to Baltimore. We will know later Monday morning, when McDermott holds his first news conference since Thursday, whether Taylor remains in the NFL's concussion protocol or has been cleared to practice.
If Taylor has not been cleared and cannot return in time for Sunday's game, rookie Nathan Peterman is expected to start. The fifth-round draft selection from Pittsburgh has drawn some fan support for the starting job. He had a somewhat promising performance in the preseason -- a 54 percent completion rate, 5.7 yards per attempt and a 75.6 quarterback rating. Plus, if Buffalo is unlikely to make the playoffs this season, some think the Bills ought to see what they have in Peterman before deciding on their direction at quarterback in 2018.
If Peterman starts in place of Taylor and wins the opener -- even over the lowly Jets -- the outside calls for the rookie to start will only grow louder.
Likewise, another scenario would elicit fan reaction in favor of Peterman. If Taylor is cleared to play in Week 1 but performs poorly and loses to the Jets -- yes, those Jets who have a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs -- then Taylor will be standing on shaky ground, at least in the eyes of the Bills' fan base.
Would McDermott consider a quarterback change so early in the season? Who knows. However, the sample size on which Taylor would be evaluated is larger than the opener. Taylor played parts of three preseason games, producing a cringe-worthy stat line -- a 48 percent completion rate, 3.4 yards per attempt, two interceptions and a 27.9 quarterback rating.
It sure seemed Taylor took a step back this preseason, although his struggles can't be attributed to him alone. The offensive line was playing without injured left tackle Cordy Glenn and had moving parts at right guard and right tackle. Taylor also had to make do with one of the NFL's most volatile receiving depth charts, rocked by the trade of Sammy Watkins, an injury to Jordan Matthews and the retirement of Anquan Boldin.
"That's been topsy-turvy," general manager Brandon Beane told the Bills' official radio program last week. "That's not the way you would have laid it out from a continuity standpoint. Unfortunately, the first time we'll probably be able to get this whole [receiver] crew together is Week 1 against the Jets.
"In fairness to Tyrod and Nathan and T.J. [Yates], that's not the way you draw it up. Part of that is on me and the front office with the move with Sammy and what we got there. And then the unfortunate part was the medical part with Jordan. He can't help that. And then we didn't see what happened with Anquan. We didn't anticipate that."
There is also the issue of the scheme run by offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. In general terms, his West Coast-based system requires quarterbacks to progress through reads from the pocket and make accurate throws on short timing patterns.
Taylor's exceptional skills as a rusher are not necessarily emphasized in Dennison's system. Under former Bills offensive coordinators Greg Roman and Anthony Lynn in 2015 and 2016, the Bills ran the NFL's fourth-most snaps from the zone-read option (176), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Over those two years as Denver's offensive coordinator, Dennison ran a total of four snaps out of the zone-read.
Taylor ran for 480 yards last season, the most among quarterbacks. Of those 480 yards, 168 came on zone-read runs, also the most in the NFL. If Dennison does not use the zone-read option, it will diminish part of Taylor's value as a quarterback.
The decision on whether Taylor remains the starter as the season progresses is ultimately McDermott's. But there are signs Beane is high on Peterman and favors a pocket passer at quarterback.
"We thought well of [Peterman] scouting him in Carolina," Beane said. "When I got here [in May], he is better than I expected. The one thing you try to investigate -- and we only did so much research there, so I didn't know all the intangibles -- this guy has the moxie, the pocket presence, the leadership.
"Arm strength is important. I'm not gonna deny it. Does Nathan have one of the top arms in the league? No. But he's got a good enough arm. What you want to see is, to make up for arm strength, does he anticipate well? Get the ball out early? He does. That's how he overcomes not having a John Elway-, Dan Marino-type arm. But he does a lot of things. You don't see him flush out of that pocket. You see him move around. He's got a nice feel. I think that's an instinctive thing. You either got it or you don't, and Nathan looks to have that."