Canelo Alvarez faces junior middleweight titlist Liam Smith on Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Alvarez, who comes into this bout after vacating the middleweight title, will be fighting in front of his fans and is a heavy favorite to take the 154-pound belt from Smith. However, this is no easy task for Canelo. His opponent is unbeaten and aggressive, with great defense and respected punching power.
To win the battle, Alvarez has to stick to the following key factors:
Use your power, experience
Alvarez is facing an unbeaten opponent, but one who is less experienced and apparently packs less of a punch. Given this scenario, Canelo's early offensive plan should focus on power shots. If Smith feels Canelo's punches early, he will be on his back foot, which will make the fight more comfortable for Alvarez. In that case, his experience will help him find gaps to exploit and claim victory inside the distance.
Prepare to change
If Alvarez fails to establish his punching power and has trouble finding the best way to connect, he will have to dig deeper into his repertoire. In order to do so, Alvarez will need to surrender the initiative to Smith, dodge punches to disrupt his opponent's range and use the counterattack.
All about the body
It is difficult to land punches on Smith's upper body; he protects himself behind a tight guard very well. Any straight shots that Alvarez decides to throw down the middle will be absorbed by Smith's guard, neutralizing the attack. He should throw hooks and straight punches to the body and under the guard, both from the outside and the middle. Besides hurting Smith, these blows will force the Englishman to open his guard for Alvarez to connect his power punches.
Look for the right hand
Throughout his career, Alvarez has proven to be a fighter with a good chin who can really take a punch. It is difficult to rattle him, but there is a first time for everything. Smith is a big opponent who has decent punching power, especially with his right hand. Canelo should take precautions and protect himself, especially since it is unclear whether his pre-fight efforts to make the weight limit will affect his stamina, as was the case prior to his fight against Floyd Mayweather.
In the corner we trust
Tactical plans will prevail in this bout. Smith will employ his no-risk strategy and stick to a strict game plan. Alvarez's corner will have to read Smith's movements and make sure Canelo doesn't get too eager to finish the fight and leave himself be vulnerable chasing Smith.