The Green Bay Packers opened as 5.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks before the line dropped to -3 on Tuesday.
The opening line reflected oddsmakers' belief that Aaron Rodgers returning for the Packers was more likely than Russell Wilson starting for the Seahawks. That changed early in the week, after Wilson returned to practice and Rodgers on Tuesday indicated that obstacles remained before he could get back under center after missing last week due to a positive COVID-19 test.
"When this line opened, we probably thought there was more chance that Rodgers would play than Wilson," Jay Croucher, head of trading for sportsbook PointsBet, said. "Now, we think there's more chance that Wilson will play than Rodgers, though we expect that both of them will play."
Croucher added that if both Rodgers and Wilson return, he would expect the line tick up slightly, "maybe to -4."
"The thing is with the Seahawks is that once they have Wilson back, we don't view them as that much worse than the Packers," Croucher said. "We still see them, when healthy, as a playoff-level team."
Rodgers remains on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and the earliest he could be cleared is Saturday. He said Tuesday on "The Pat McAfee Show" that he needs to overcome a "health hurdle" if he's going play Sunday.
Wilson returned to practice one month after having finger surgery to repair an injury that kept him out the last three games. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said on Monday that Wilson remained day-to-day, "but the intention is that if he's OK, he plays."
Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said Wilson's upgraded status coincided with a $100,000 money-line bet on the Seahawks +185 that his shop received Monday.
NFL market watch
Here is our weekly look at how the NFL and college football betting markets are shaping up leading into the weekend.
For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. The betting percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered in advance of the previous week's games. Most numbers were reopened Sunday night.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (Thursday)
Last week's look-ahead line: Ravens -6.5, 48
Sunday: Ravens -7, 47.5
Wednesday: Ravens -7.5, 46.5
Spread action: 82% of the bets and 63% of the money wagered is on the Ravens.
Total action: 61% of the bets and 56% of the money wagered is on the over.
Note: The Ravens are 9-0 against the spread against the Dolphins under coach John Harbaugh. That is the most games any coach has coached a single team in the Super Bowl era while covering the spread every time.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Last week's look-ahead line: Packers -5, 49.5
Sunday: Packers -5.5, 49.5
Wednesday: Packers -3, 49.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 73% of the money wagered is on the Packers.
Total action: 70% of the bets are on the under, but 88% of the money wagered is on the over.
Note: Green Bay has covered the spread in eight straight games, tied with the 2020 Bills for the longest such streak in the last three seasons.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Last week's look-ahead line: Titans -2.5, 44.5
Sunday: Titans -2.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Titans -3 (even), 44.5
Spread action: 75% of the bets and 62% of the money wagered is on the Titans.
Total action: 68% of the bets are on the over, but 75% of the money wagered is on the under.
Note: The Saints are 49-26 against the spread after a loss under coach Sean Payton. BetMGM reported taking a $20,000 bet on the Titans to win the Super Bowl at 14-1 last week.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week's look-ahead line: Steelers -9, 44
Sunday: Steelers -9, 44
Wednesday: -9, 42.5
Spread action: 51% of the bets are on the Steelers, but 66% of the money wagered is on the Lions.
Total action: 58% of the bets are on the over, but 53% of the money wagered is on the under.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Last week's look-ahead line: Patriots -3, 44.5
Sunday: Patriots -2.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Patriots -1.5, 45.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 81% of the money wagered is on the Browns.
Total action: 55% of the bets are on the over, but 73% of the money wagered is on the under.
Note: BetMGM reported taking a $10,000 bet on the Browns to win the Super Bowl at 30-1 odds last week.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Last week's look-ahead line: Bills -13.5, 48.5
Sunday: Bills -13, 48
Wednesday: Bills -13, 47.5
Spread action: 69% of the bets and 73% of the money wagered is on the Bills.
Total action: 51% of the bets and 61% of the money wagered is on the over.
Note: Mike White is expected to start at quarterback for the Jets.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Last week's look-ahead line: Cowboys -9.5, 51
Sunday: Cowboys -9, 52
Wednesday: Cowboys -9.5, 54.5
Spread action: 57% of the bets and 81% of the money wagered is on the Cowboys.
Total action: 55% of the bets and 83% of the money is on the over.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Last week's look-ahead line: Colts -10.5, 48
Sunday: Colts -10.5, 47.5
Wednesday: Colts -10.5, 47.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 56% of the money wagered is on the Colts.
Total action: 63% of the bets and 92% of the money is on the under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Last week's look-ahead line: Buccaneers -7.5, 51
Sunday: Buccaneers -9.5, 51.5
Wednesday: Buccaneers -9.5, 51.5
Spread action: 84% of the bets and 85% of the money wagered is on the Buccaneers.
Total action: 58% of the bets and 67% of the money wagered is on the under.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Last week's look-ahead line: None due to QB questions.
Sunday: Cardinals -10, 45.5
Wednesday: Cardinals -10, 44.5
Spread action: 74% of the bets and 86% of the money wagered is on the Cardinals.
Total action:: 78% of the bets and 77% of the money wagered is on the Over.
Note: P.J. Walker will replace the injured Sam Darnold at quarterback for the Panthers, it was announced Tuesday. The betting market had little to no reaction, with the Cardinals remaining 10-point favorites.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Last week's look-ahead line: Chargers -3, 50.5
Sunday: Chargers -2.5, 52
Wednesday: Chargers -3, 53
Spread action: 62% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the Chargers.
Total action: 75% of the bets and 7% of the money wagered is on the over.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $520,000 bet on the Chargers -2.5 (-110) early in the week. The Vikings have five players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including starting center Garrett Bradbury and starting safety Harrison Smith. Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer said Wednesday that around 29 members of the team, including himself, were getting tested because of close contact protocols.
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
Last week's look-ahead line: Broncos -1.5, 44.5
Sunday: Broncos -2.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Broncos -3 (even), 44.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 68% of the money wagered is on the Broncos.
Total action: 63% of the bets and 58% of the money wagered is on the over.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Last week's look-ahead line: Chiefs -3, 53.5
Sunday: Chiefs -2.5, 51
Wednesday: Chiefs -2.5, 52.5
Spread action: 55% of the bets are on the Chiefs, but 80% of the money wagered is on the Raiders.
Total action: 61% of the bets are on the over, but 79% of the money wagered is on the over.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Monday)
Last week's look-ahead line: Rams -3, 47
Sunday: Rams -4.5, 47
Wednesday: Rams -3.5, 49
Spread action: 93% of the bets are on the Rams, but 96% of the money is on the 49ers.
Total action: 64% of the bets and 77% of the money wagered is on the over.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported taking $520,000 on the 49ers +4 early in the week, leading the skewed early betting splits.