When a college football team lands its No. 1 recruiting target at quarterback, coaches would love to have the best-case scenario play out with the prospect.
That quarterback will start from day one. He'll stabilize the whole offense. And after three years of lighting up opposing defenses, he'll be a top NFL draft pick.
The problem, more often than not, is that scenario doesn't play out. And the numbers prove that.
Of the 20 ESPN 300 quarterbacks in the 2015 class, 14 transferred or were dismissed. Of the 21 ESPN 300 quarterbacks in the 2016 class, 17 transferred. Among the 24 quarterbacks in the ESPN 300 from the 2017 class, there were 12 transfers and one who switched to tight end. In total, 43 of the 65 ESPN 300 quarterbacks -- 66% -- left the team they signed with out of high school.
This isn't to say that top-tier quarterbacks aren't worth pursuing, but not every team can land a Trevor Lawrence. There is more nuance when it comes to quarterback recruiting. It's more than signing a quarterback, plugging him into the system and watching him flourish.