The party is thinning out quickly. Just two weeks ago, 15 teams remained unbeaten at the FBS level, and now we're down to only six.
Every college football season takes on its own personality in terms of how many powers avoid early upsets, how many upstarts make runs (and how long they last) and how many mid-majors threaten to run the table. Over the past 10 full seasons -- from 2011 to 2021, minus the forever exception of 2020 -- there are typically 8.5 unbeaten teams eight weeks into the season, 6.5 from power conferences and 2.0 from non-powers. We're running below average this season, primarily because of the lack of viable teams from the Group of 5. The last G5 members left the unbeaten party a week ago.
This week could thin the ranks further. Based on SP+ win projections, we should expect to lose an average of 2.1 of the six unbeatens, and there's only a 28% chance that all five active teams (Clemson is idle) survive the weekend unscathed.
Let's figure out who's most likely to go down and ask one big question about each team. More importantly, let's rank the unbeatens!
6. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 15th, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.6% (last week: 3.7%)
What they did in Week 8: Defeated Kansas State 38-28. Things almost went awry for the Horned Frogs as K-State's backup quarterback Will Howard, in for the injured Adrian Martinez, led the Wildcats to four consecutive touchdowns and a 28-10 lead midway through the second quarter. But Max Duggan threw for two touchdowns, Kendre Miller rushed for two more and the TCU defense held the Wildcats scoreless, with two turnovers and two missed field goals, over the final 38 minutes. Howard began the game 8-for-10 for 185 yards and two touchdowns plus a rushing score, but he went just 5-for-10 for 40 yards and an interception from there.