Members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will tell you repeatedly they rank teams -- not conferences.
If the 13-member group were to meet today, though, it would be clear the SEC is leading the playoff race. Remember, the committee doesn't rank teams the old-fashioned way -- moving them up a spot or two with a win, down a spot or two with a loss. It's a far more detailed conversation and evaluation, which is why Tennessee's win at Oklahoma on Saturday could catapult the Volunteers more seriously into the playoff conversation than the latest Associated Press poll might indicate.
Just how high can they climb? There would be selection committee members who would reward Tennessee for a better combination of résumé and eye test than Ohio State. They would put Tennessee and Ohio State side-by-side on their giant flat-screen computers for a statistical comparison -- and they would see two very similar teams. The biggest difference is the Vols' win at OU.
Here's how Saturday's results might affect the committee's top 12, if it were released today, based on each contender's résumé to date. Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it's a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
So here's our fourth prediction of the season for how the committee would rank -- not seed -- the top 12 teams.
1. Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Why they could be here: Texas has the best combination of metrics, game film and schedule strength -- all factors the selection committee prioritizes. The Longhorns entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in the country in game control, No. 2 in total efficiency (96.8), and No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Instead of being an obstacle, the oblique injury to starting quarterback Quinn Ewers only illustrated how good the Longhorns' quarterback room is with backup Arch Manning in the starting lineup.
Why they could be lower: It's hard to imagine Texas dropping from the top spot after a win -- especially when Georgia had a bye week. Unless there is movement above a team, the committee doesn't typically change rankings if teams don't play. That's why it's unusual to see much movement on Selection Day beyond the teams that played in their conference title games.
Need to know: The Longhorns' win at Michigan looks even better after the Wolverines beat USC on Saturday and showed significant improvement up front in the process. It's also part of the committee's protocol to consider injuries to key players. The group will be aware of how Texas played with and without Ewers. As long as Texas continues to look like a top team with Manning in the lineup -- which it has -- the committee will treat it as such.