We're three weeks from college football's final playoff rankings, and we have no idea who the best team in the country is.
OK, it's probably Ohio State. The Buckeyes have opened up at least a slight lead in this week's SP+ ratings. But who's No. 2? The teams ranked second through fifth in SP+ this week are separated by only 0.8 points. The top seven teams are separated by only 5.0 -- basically a single funky bounce in a neutral-site game. We head toward the first genuine tournament in FBS history, the freshly expanded 12-team CFP that will start in about a month, and at least half the field of 12 will have a puncher's chance at the title.
Hot damn, this is fun.
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.