The best time of the year has arrived ... well, almost.
I prefer the madness of the NCAA tournament where everything is on the line every time out. But Champ Week has so many great matchups, more than 12 hours per day, and hardware is on the line -- also phenomenal.
Picking winners here is not easy. Going chalk across the board is not smart money. So let's rip through the big six leagues and find some of my favorite spots to cash a few winners.
Odds courtesy of ESPN BET
ACC favorite: Duke Blue Devils +180
Bubble teams abound in the ACC with Virginia, Wake Forest, Pitt and maybe even Syracuse battling for their tournament lives. There aren't many Quad 1 wins to improve your résumé in this league, and I think despite the desperation, Duke and North Carolina +190 are clearly the class of the league. Despite beating Duke twice this season and winning the title outright, the Tar Heels are second choice to the Blue Devils. The old adage of beating a team three times in a season will be in play here, but I don't subscribe to that theory. The Heels are the more veteran, tough and physical team. Duke has yet to prove it can play through and succeed in a physical game. Give me the Heels.
Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels +190
Big East favorite: UConn Huskies -150
Well, about not taking the favorites ... there are exceptions. There is no team I believe is more complete than UConn. It can beat you in so many ways in so many different types of games. The Huskies have finally been healthy for a stretch and are just getting better. There's no value here, so I'm laying up on this league. That said, Creighton +300 would be the play otherwise. As the No. 2 seed, I like its path with a likely matchup against Providence in the quarters. In the semis, Marquette may still be without All-America point guard Tyler Kolek, who has missed the past few weeks with an oblique injury. I think the Bluejays arrive in the final against UConn, whom they beat by 19 last time out (albeit at home). Not a big flier, but if you don't want the favorite, the Bluejays are the play.
Pick: Creighton Bluejays +300
Big Ten favorite: Purdue Boilermakers +100
I was surprised the Boilers are even money. They are built to play and win in the Big Ten. I'm not a believer in their tournament title hopes playing against more athletic guards and some teams with stretch-5s that can make soon-to-be two-time Player of the Year Zach Edey guard on the perimeter.
Pick: As much as I love the Illinois Fighting Illini +825 as a Final Four pick, Purdue at even money is the move here
Big 12 favorite: Houston Cougars -150
Houston is no doubt the team to beat in this league despite the Big 12 being the most challenging conference in the country. But every team has seen that Houston defense, and the shock and awe you can sometimes experience in the first meeting will be gone. And it's not like the Cougars ran the table; they lost three games and won two overtime games to turn in a 15-3 record in their inaugural Big 12 season. One of those OT wins was at Baylor. The Bears have a great path to the tile with #6 seed Kansas likely their quarterfinal matchup. The Jayhawks have massive injury issues to two All-Americans in Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., who Bill Self already announced will not play in this tournament. The semifinal opponent won't be easy, but with their truly elite offense and shot-making, I like them to make the final. And with a good price of +675, I'll roll the dice with Scott Drew and the Bears cutting down nets in Kansas City.
Pick: Baylor Bears +675
Pac-12 favorite: Arizona Wildcats -155
There is no team in any league that at its best is so significantly better than the rest of the teams in the league. The problem is Arizona has a tendency to not play to its potential or with the urgency to beat teams it is better than. Simply said, the Wildcats can take their foot off the gas and coast. They need to be up for games to perform. They mauled Colorado twice this season, both times by more than 20 points. The Buffs have high-level talent, were banged up and underachieved all year but have hit their stride, winning six straight. I think Colorado can look like the team we all thought it was as the Cats think they're coasting to a title.
Pick: Colorado Buffaloes +475
SEC favorite: Tennessee Volunteers +160
The SEC is by far the most entertaining league in the country. And even this jaded sportscaster would buy a ticket to see this tourney live. So many teams play up-tempo, with high-level athletes and playmakers. It's also the hardest of the major conference tournaments to predict. While Tennessee may have the best chance to get to a Final Four, I think the winner is coming out of the bottom of the bracket. Kentucky +350 just beat the Vols on the road in the season finale. No one in the country can score like the Cats, and when they defend even a little, they could be the best team in the nation. That said, the real value here is Florida +1800. They would have to win four games in four days as they don't have a double bye, but I'm all-in on Todd Golden's team. Their bigs have developed all season, protect the rim on D and can score in various ways on the other end. Their guards, specifically Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton Jr., are so dynamic. They've beaten three of the top four seeds and will have no fear here. With that price, let's do it.
Pick: Florida Gators +1800
Ivy League favorite: Princeton Tigers +100
Only four of the eight Ivy League teams make the tourney, and three could win it. This tournament started in 2017 (regular season champ received tourney bid prior) and this is by far the most wide open. I think Princeton, Yale +185 or Cornell +350 could replicate what Princeton did last year in getting to the Sweet 16. So this two-day, three-game tourney is going to be outstanding. Yale has won this tournament multiple times, as has Princeton, but the value play is Cornell. It beat both Princeton and Yale at home. It controlled the majority of the game against Yale in New Haven but fell apart late, and Princeton won by three in New Jersey. The Big Red press, play fast and run deep into their bench, where everyone takes and makes 3s. It's a unique style that's hard to deal with in league, and I think could be even harder if they get to dance.
Pick: Cornell Big Red+350
Atlantic 10 favorite: Dayton Flyers +150
I covered the A-10 all year, calling the Friday night package. Despite being the No. 3 seed, Dayton is the best team in the league without question. There are issues, though. Point guard Javon Bennett has an injured hand and may not play. Dayton is bottom 20 in the nation in bench minutes played and has no depth to truly replace Bennett; that was exploited in a loss at Loyola Chicago earlier this month. Lastly, Dayton knows it is going to the tournament. Every other team in the A-10 is playing for its tourney lives. Loyola Chicago +550 and Richmond +450 could win this, but the value is on VCU +900. VCU had key guys in and out of the lineup all year. It is fully healthy, and despite not getting a double bye, the Rams would play two games, the tourney has off day Friday, then resume play Saturday. So many A-10 coaches told me that the off day benefits the lower seeds, as they get to rest and essentially even the playing field. VCU is elite defensively and can score in varied ways. We're rolling with the Rams.
Pick: VCU Rams +900
Mountain West favorite: San Diego State Aztecs +250
There is no tournament more wide open in the country than the Mountain West, and the odds reflect that, as favorite San Diego State is the No. 5 seed. Seven teams could win this tourney. I think the play here is Boise State +525. It is on the opposite side of the bracket from regular-season champion Utah State +400 and SDSU. More importantly, in league play, it is first in offensive efficiency, second in defensive efficiency and top 50 in both nationally. It has big road and home wins, is extremely well coached by Leon Rice and can score in different ways. Let's go Broncos.
