Betting tips for Monday Night Football: Jaguars-Bills, Commanders-Bengals

Bills -5.0. The Bills are 2-0 straight up to start this season, while the Jaguars have gone 2-6 against the spread since last year. Trevor Lawrence has lost seven straight games, and Jacksonville's offensive struggles are a big part of their 0-2 start, ranking near the bottom of the league in total yards and points per game. The Jaguars' defense hasn't been much better. Meanwhile, the Bills are clicking on both sides of the ball, with only the Cardinals and Saints scoring more points per game entering Week 3. Buffalo is at home on extra rest (they last played 11 days ago) and are 5-1 straight up in their past six home games. This is a great spot for the Bills to cover.

Keon Coleman over 34.5 receiving yards. Coleman had just one target and zero yards against the Dolphins in Week 2, but there's plenty of reason for optimism Monday night. He led all Bills receivers in snaps and routes run in Week 2, even though Josh Allen threw only 19 passes in a blowout win over the Dolphins. Buffalo faces a Jaguars secondary that has allowed the third-most passing yards (524) in the league and has struggled against outside receivers. With Allen playing well, Coleman is in an excellent spot to hit this over.

Christian Kirk over 39.5 receiving yards. Although Kirk has only seven targets and 29 yards through two games, he should be more involved Monday night against the Bills. With Evan Engram and Bills slot corner Taron Johnson sidelined, Kirk should get plenty of targets. He has averaged 76.4 receiving yards over his three years in Jacksonville when he has seen six or more targets. Expect Kirk to get back on track this week.

Brian Thomas Jr. over 39.5 receiving yards. Thomas may be third in snaps and routes run for the Jaguars, behind Gabe Davis and Kirk, but he's making the most of his chances. Thomas leads the team with 3.2 yards of separation on his targets, and his athleticism was on full display against the Browns last week. He had two of the Jaguars' longest gains, a 66-yard catch late in the third quarter and a 28-yard reception late in the fourth. It's that explosiveness that makes him a solid bet to clear the 39.5-yard mark on Monday night even if he doesn't exceed the four targets he received in each of the Jaguars' first two games.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Research

Jaguars vs. Bills

• The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

• The Jaguars are 13-21-1 ATS in prime-time games since 2000.

• The Bills are 2-6 ATS in prime time over the last two seasons.

• The Bills are 2-6 ATS when laying at least four points at home over the past two seasons (1-6 ATS in last seven games), excluding playoffs.

• Prime-time unders are 161-111-4 since 2019 (.592).

Commanders vs. Bengals

• Joe Burrow is 2-7 ATS when at least a 7-point favorite including playoffs (5-4 outright), including a Week 1 home loss to the Patriots as a 7.5-point favorite.

• Since 2008, the Commanders are 13-30-2 ATS in prime-time games (5-15 ATS on Monday Night Football in span).

• Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career after a loss (1-0 ATS this season).

• Joe Burrow is 4-0 outright and 3-1 ATS on Monday Night Football. All four games went under the total.

• The Commanders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs (0-3 ATS last three, 0-1 ATS this season).

• Underdogs of at least six points are 8-0 ATS this season. Underdogs of at least seven points are 3-0 outright.

• Prime-time unders are 161-111-4 since 2019 (.592).