Through two weeks, nearly 60% of Eliminator Challenge entries have already been wiped out. The percentage is even higher in several high-stakes tournaments, including at Circa where over 67% of entrants have already been knocked out.
The three biggest favorites so far this season have all lost outright, with both the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions falling, despite being at least 7-point favorites. The most popular Eliminator pick has gone down in both weeks, with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 and the Ravens last week.
Nothing has been easy so far this season. Out of the eight teams that have been favored by at least six points so far this season, none have covered the spread.
On paper, Week 3 looks like the most straightforward week this season. There are several big favorites listed below, all are at home against bad teams, and none of those teams are extremely valuable to save for the future.
As a result, selection percentages should be relatively spread out this week, with no team expected to be over 20% chosen. Strong cases can be made for all of the big favorites this week, with the top pick being the Cleveland Browns.
Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Top Picks
1. Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants
This is the Browns' largest projected favorite role in any game this season according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. The Browns have one of the toughest home schedules in the NFL on paper, and their next-easiest game is a road game at Denver in Week 13. Clay also gives the Browns a 79% chance to win this week, the best chance on the entire board. As is the case with several other big favorites this week, it's unlikely the Browns are overwhelming chalk this week.
ESPN BET odds: Browns -6 (-280 money line)
ESPN Analytics: Browns have 64% chance to win
Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
The Buccaneers are the biggest favorites of the week according to ESPN Analytics, hosting a Broncos team that rates out as one of the worst in the NFL. After this week, the Buccaneers are not projected to be favored again until Week 12. However, they will face the lowly Panthers in two of their final six games, which could come in handy late in the season. That is the main tiebreaker in favor of the Browns over the Buccaneers. The Broncos are 31st in offensive EPA per play and have managed one touchdown all season.
ESPN BET odds: Buccaneers -6.5 (-300 money line)
ESPN Analytics: Buccaneers have 69% chance to win
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
3. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers
The third choice this week comes down to how big your group is. In smaller groups that are unlikely to last all 18 weeks, the Jets and Bengals are slightly more likely to win.
However, in larger groups, the Raiders have the strongest combination of win probability and lack of future value. This is one of only two games all season where Mike Clay gives the Raiders more than a 50% chance to win. They would have been the top choice before the Panthers benched Bryce Young, but the Panthers' move to Andy Dalton actually upgraded their rating in the betting market. Still, Carolina looks like the worst team in the NFL for the second straight season, and fading them on the road against any team with a pulse should be a profitable Eliminator strategy.
ESPN BET odds: Raiders -5.5 (-240 money line)
ESPN Analytics: Raiders have 62% chance to win
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
Other options
4. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Washington Commanders on Monday)
5. New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots on Thursday)
6. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Miami Dolphins)