BAKU, Azerbaijan -- The Azerbaijan Grand Prix will be a one-stop race in normal circumstances, but the main question will be whether it is quicker to start on the ultra-soft or the super-soft. The top five will all start on the super-soft, which suggests that is the quickest way to the flag, and it also comes with the added benefit of running longer into the race, therefore keeping strategy options open in the event of a Safety Car.
The main issue with starting on the ultra-soft is degradation during the opening stint. Although lots of drivers reported graining on the front right during Friday practice, it is the rear degradation caused by the acceleration out of the 90-degree corners in the first sector that is the main weakness of the ultra-soft. Cooler temperatures might help that on race day and the purple-striped tyre is also significantly quicker than the super-soft -- to the tune of 0.8s-0.9s over a single lap.
Kimi Raikkkonen, who starts on the ultra-soft after a mistake in Q2, will therefore need to make the most of the opening laps of the race before degradation sets in. The performance advantage of the ultra-soft may also result in drivers attempting a similar strategy to Red Bull's race-winning soft tyre gamble in China if a late Safety Car interrupts the flow of the race.
For those starting on ultra-softs, expect to see the first pit stop around lap 10 whereas those starting on super-softs should be able to run as far as lap 20 before pitting.