Here's a troubling thought: For all the agonizing we do about whom to pick in the first round of fantasy drafts, two-thirds of the time, we are going to be wrong.
It's true. A scan of first-round Average Draft Position rankings (ADPs) over the past 12 years shows that our success rate in picking the players who return top-15 earnings is about 34 percent. In fact, that percentage has been declining in recent years.
Let's look at 2015, which was as representative as any other year (ADPs from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship):