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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

          Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners. AP Photo/Abbie Parr
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Aug 30, 2023, 03:04 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • The final Wednesday in August features nine afternoon affairs with six more evening contests. Action gets underway at 1:05 PM with a pair of games so be sure to have your free agent pickups done in time. This is the last week before playoffs begin in ESPN head-to-head leagues and there are only four Thursday games, so you can't afford to be playing short on Wednesday.

          • Heading the list of pitchers to pick up for a spot start is Bryce Miller (38.4% rostered). He has been a key cog in the Seattle Mariners ascent to first place in the AL West with the club winning six of his eight starts since the All-Star break. Miller has posted a 3.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in that span, with 40 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings. He has a great chance to end the month on a high note with a favorable home matchup against the Oakland Athletics and the league's worst wOBA facing right-handers. The Athletics also fan at a 25.1% pace, the third most in MLB with a righty on the hill.

          • Next up is Cristopher Sanchez (12.8%) who takes the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park against the Los Angeles Angels. The Phillies have been victorious in all four of Sanchez's August starts. The 26-year-old southpaw has done his part with quality starts in his last three outings. Sanchez has a solid chance for a fourth start quality outing facing an Angels lineup with the second worst wOBA versus left-handers over the last month. They've struck out at a generous 25.9% clip over this span.

          • Dane Dunning (35.8%) has never been considered a dominant hurler; he's more of an innings eater with fantasy appeal in the most favorable matchups. While that's still the case, it is intriguing to note Dunning has posted a pair of double-digit strikeout games this month. Adding a third will be a challenge facing a New York Mets lineup with a below average strikeout rate versus righties, but they've fanned more after the break so there is a chance. When the Mets make contact, their production is league average, putting Dunning in play as a streamer for his Wednesday effort in pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

          • Kyle Gibson (27.5%) is another pitcher not known for missing bats. Since 2018, his strikeout rates have ranged between 19.3% and 22.7%. This season, it sits at 20.1%, but since July 9 it has spiked to 24.5%. The veteran righty has a chance to keep his elevated strikeout pace facing a struggling Chicago White Sox offense at home. The visitors tote the second lowest wOBA and an above average strikeout rate into Camden Yards.

          • All batting eyes will again be on Coors Field, but there are only so many Atlanta Braves to go around. An underappreciated hitter, especially for those looking for power from the catcher position is Seattle Mariners backstop Cal Raleigh (37.3%). Raleigh's 25 homers lead catcher-eligible players. He checks in as the seventh highest ranked catcher on the ESPN Player Rater. On Wednesday, Raleigh faces Athletics righty Zach Neal who has yielded seven homers in only 17 frames. The switch-hitting Raleigh has clubbed 22 of his long balls off right-handed pitching.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • The San Diego Padres brought in Josh Hader to pitch the bottom of the 10th in a 5-5 tie. The St. Louis Cardinals plated the ghost runner to walk it off and hand Hader his second loss of the season. The run is scored as unearned, so the last time Hader yielded an earned run remains May 31. Hader only threw five pitches last night, but he was appearing for the second straight day. Even so, the lefty worked on three straight days after tossing 42 pitches on the first two earlier in the season, so it's not clear cut to reserve him for today with just 23 pitches hurled since Monday. Scott Barlow is the likeliest reliever to step in if Hader is given the day off. Barlow doubles as an early pickup for tomorrow when the Padres are one of only eight teams in action. If Hader were to appear today, he would certainly be off tomorrow.

          • Emmanuel Clase collected his 35th save on Tuesday, tying him with Camilo Doval for the most in MLB. The Cleveland Guardians closer surrendered a homer to Michael Taylor, but that just brought the Minnesota Twins to a 4-2 deficit, which is where the game ended. Clase tossed 13 pitches, which comes after 27 on Sunday. The combined 40 jeopardizes his availability for today's matinee, especially with the early 1:10 PM ET first pitch. Trevor Stephan and Enyel De Los Santos are most apt to move up the bullpen chain if Clase is unavailable.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Kyle Freeland O/U15.5 pitching outs (-110/-133)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Freeland putting up 12.9 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 19.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $53.80.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, considering that THE BAT X believes they are the sixth-luckiest offense in the game this year.

          • Kyle Freeland's fastball velocity over his past three games started (89.4 mph) has been a considerable increase over his seasonal rate (88.2 mph).

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The second-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.

          • THE BAT profiles Coors Field as the best ballpark in Major League Baseball for batting average.

          • As far as temperature and humidity go, the most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

          • Kyle Freeland's fastball velocity has fallen 1.6 mph this year (88.2 mph) below where it was last season (89.8 mph).