The championship hopes of the Baltimore Orioles took a significant hit over the weekend, with the news that closer Felix Bautista, who departed Friday's game early, has an injury to the UCL in his elbow. That, for those of you unfamiliar, is the ligament traditionally repaired in a Tommy John surgery, not that the Orioles have yet determined or announced that as the probable outcome.
In most cases, a pitcher nursing an UCL injury requires an extensive (read: lengthier than the 15-day minimum IL stay for a pitcher) rest period, so there's a better-than-even chance that we've seen the last of meaningful fantasy contributions from him this season (read: perhaps he returns to ramp up for an Orioles postseason run, but beyond the point of relevance for us).
That opens up a meaningful opportunity at the back end of the team's bullpen, arguably one of the best ones for saves seekers. The Orioles, after all, have played a MLB-best seven games better than their Pythagorean win-loss record indicates, have a third-best .607 winning percentage in one-run games, and rank eighth in runs per game on offense (4.92). They're also fifth in relief ERA (3.52) but only 15th in starters' ERA (4.37). All of those numbers point to this being a team that has relied heavily upon its excellent bullpen -- and the team should be expected to continue to play in closely contested games.
Yennier Cano might have absorbed the loss in the Orioles' Sunday disappointment against the Colorado Rockies, but that doesn't change his status as the week's by-far best fantasy baseball pickup. Cano is the No. 20 relief pitcher in terms of fantasy points -- and bear in mind that three of those names ahead of him are starting pitchers who retained relief eligibility -- but No. 1 among pitchers who have spent more time in a setup role rather than a closing capacity. He began his breakthrough 2023 with 17 consecutive scoreless frames but has maintained his excellent performance throughout, with an ERA of 1.77 over 22 appearances since the All-Star break.
Cano might not be the same style finisher as Bautista, relying more on an elite sinker -- Statcast has it with a Run Value of 18, making it the majors' third-best sinker and ninth-best individual pitch this season -- than any filthy swing-and-miss stuff, but he's plenty capable of delivering saves at a similar pace. The risk, of course, is situations like Sunday's game, when a Gunnar Henderson throwing error allowed Colorado's Hunter Goodman to reach second base to begin the ninth inning and a pair of subsequent ground outs brought home the rookie with the eventual winning run.
Cano's outs will be more of that ground-ball variety than Bautista's were, so brace for more volatility in tighter games. Nevertheless, the full package is still that of a "near, if not top-10" fantasy relief pitcher, and Cano remains out there in 60.5% of ESPN leagues.
Beyond Cano, many of the premium pickups in fantasy leagues at this advanced stage of the season are schedule-driven picks. With the possible exception of leagues with tight add/drop caps, you should be cycling through your players depending upon matchups as much as possible.
Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners: The two-start pitcher to get for this week, Woo first draws a dreamy Oakland Athletics matchup and then a plenty-favorable road assignment against the New York Mets. While the Mariners will aim to keep their young starters' seasonal workloads in check (with Woo joining fellow rookie Bryce Miller in that regard), the team has moved ahead of the Texas Rangers into the AL West lead. This forces the Mariners to demand as much as it can from these pitchers.
Woo threw only 65 pitches in his first start back from the IL this past Tuesday, so he might be capped in the 80-85 pitch range for both of this week's assignments, but both are still fantasy-friendly enough to warrant adding him. Considering he also has thrown just 103 total innings between the majors and minors this year (a "decent, but not outrageous" bump from the 57 he amassed in 2022), Woo could also deliver value beyond simply fantasy's Week 21.
Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros: Acknowledging that his bat is too valuable to keep him in a little-used backup role, the Astros are squeezing a decent amount of value out of the catcher-eligible Diaz, especially of late. In the team's 41 games since the All-Star break, he has started 26 times, 13 of them at catcher, nine at DH and four at first base, while adding eight additional mid-game appearances. During that time, Diaz has hit .316/.344/.607 with nine home runs and 27 RBI, resulting in 100 fantasy points (fifth-best among catcher-eligibles).
That's not a stat line you should expect to continue all year, considering he's a notorious free-swinger with 1st-percentile walk and 2nd-percentile chase rates for the season, while his Statcast Barrel and hard-hit rates place in the 82nd and 64th percentiles. However, that is still solid power from a catcher -- and it's enough to make him a potential top-10 candidate at position the rest of the way, especially with the Astros finding creative ways to sneak him in the lineup.
Griffin Canning, SP, Los Angeles Angels: The biggest benefactor of Shohei Ohtani being shelved as a pitcher for the remainder of 2023, Canning delivered an absolute gem against the aforementioned Mets in his first start back in the Angels rotation on Sunday. Canning managed nine strikeouts and 17 swinging strikes in his seven innings of work, giving him 31.0% strikeout and 5.4% walk rates over his last 12 appearances (10 of them starts). Now he'll face the Athletics in their pitching-friendly home ballpark and, if the Angels stick to a six-man rotation, Canning will next face the Cleveland Guardians at home.