Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 12, 2023, 03:26 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

A pair of Monday rainouts will be made up as part of double-headers today, beginning at 1:35 PM ET with the opener of a day-night affair in Fenway Park between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. The Chicago White Sox host the Kansas City Royals for a single-admission doubleheader, with the first game slated for 4:40 PM ET. Yesterday's scheduled starters were moved to today for all of the involved teams.

By Derek Carty

The top pitching streamer on Tuesday's slate is definitely Bryan Woo (10% rostered in ESPN leagues). He is projected by THE BAT X to be one of the top options of the day, ahead of aces like Zack Wheeler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer. However, perhaps because this is just his fourth start since coming off the IL, he is still so widely available. The matchup is fantastic against an ramshackle Los Angeles Angels offense, with a cool 64-degree temperature at home in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
If Woo isn't available, or you're simply looking for an extra arm -- especially if you feel like your ratios are safe and you want to chase some wins or strikeout volume -- take a look at Hyun Jin Ryu (24%). The opposing Texas Rangers are in free fall and he has a strong offense to back him up for the win.
Alex Faedo (1%) is also interesting if he's allowed to pitch deep enough. He had a short leash in his last start after coming out of the bullpen, but his matchup is fantastic facing a below-average and strikeout-friendly Cincinnati Reds offense that takes a big park hit going from Great American to Comerica.
If you're looking for the best game environment to stream from, look no further than Coors Field. Two weak pitchers are squaring off (Chris Flexen vs. Javier Assad) and, because we're dealing with two mediocre offenses, plenty of their players are likely to be available. Seiya Suzuki (61%), Charlie Blackmon (21%), Ian Happ (66%), Ryan McMahon (26%), Ezequiel Tovar (11%), Yan Gomes (4%), Nolan Jones (17%), Elias Diaz (32%), Jeimer Candelario (35%), and Mike Tauchman (4%), as well as several others are going to be strong streaming choices today.
Don't overlook the Baltimore Orioles, though, who project just as well as the Coors teams. They face Adam Wainwright, who is getting by on name value alone at this point. If the St. Louis Cardinals were competing for a playoff spot, it's unlikely Waino would be making starts for them at this point in the season. That's good news for us, though, and we can look to take advantage with Ryan Mountcastle (61%), Ryan O'Hearn (5%), Austin Hays (27%), and Ramon Urias (1%).
If you're looking for speed, the Boston Red Sox have the best matchup of the day. Carlos Rodon has not been the same pitcher this year (clearly worse post-injury) and he's one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal on. Trevor Story (10%) is a strong option, as would be Ceddanne Rafaela (2%) and Wilyer Abreu (1%), if they happen to crack the lineup.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.8	Justin Verlander	R	OAK	98.9%	-320	8.5	61%	6.0	2.1	6.2
13.7	Dylan Cease	R	KC, Gm. 1	88.9%	-130	8.5	61%	5.9	2.3	7.1
13.5	Zack Wheeler	R	ATL	99.4%	105	8.5	50%	6.1	2.4	6.7
13.3	Max Scherzer	R	@TOR	99.3%	-120	8.5	55%	6.0	2.4	6.5
12.9	Max Fried	L	@PHI	97.3%	-125	8.5	50%	6.0	2.3	6.2
12.5	Freddy Peralta	R	MIA	92.1%	-170	8	59%	5.4	2.0	6.2
12.3	Patrick Sandoval	L	@SEA	28.7%	175	7.5	50%	5.9	2.1	5.8
12.1	Bryan Woo	R	LAA	14.4%	-210	7.5	50%	5.3	1.7	5.3
11.8	Jose Butto	R	ARI	0.4%	-110	10	56%	5.9	2.3	5.1
11.3	Lance Lynn	R	SD	72.7%	-160	9	55%	5.9	2.7	6.1
10.9	Touki Toussaint	R	KC, Gm. 2	3.5%	--	--	60%	5.4	2.1	5.5
10.5	Joe Ryan	R	TB	91.1%	-135	8.5	52%	5.4	2.7	6.3
9.6	Carlos Rodon	L	@BOS, Gm. 2	70.1%	115	9.5	55%	5.1	2.6	6.1
9.4	Sean Manaea	L	CLE	15.3%	-155	8.5	48%	5.3	2.3	4.9
9.4	Michael Wacha	R	@LAD	56.4%	135	9	45%	5.4	2.4	5.0
9.4	Brady Singer	R	@CWS, Gm. 1	53.6%	110	8.5	39%	5.8	2.8	5.2
8.8	Cal Quantrill	R	@SF	10.6%	130	8.5	52%	5.5	2.4	4.2
8.7	Edward Cabrera*	R	@MIL	8.4%	143	8	41%	4.6	2.1	5.4
8.6	Jordan Lyles	R	@CWS, Gm. 2	1.5%	--	--	40%	5.9	3.0	4.7
8.5	Bailey Falter	L	WSH	0.9%	-145	9	54%	4.9	2.2	4.0
8.3	Ryne Nelson	R	@NYM	2.2%	-110	10	44%	5.4	2.5	4.2
8.0	JP Sears	L	@HOU	5.7%	250	8.5	39%	5.2	2.7	4.9
7.0	Nick Pivetta	R	NYY, Gm. 1	13.0%	-145	10	48%	5.2	3.3	5.6
6.9	Hyun Jin Ryu	L	TEX	27.2%	100	8.5	45%	4.6	2.3	4.0
6.7	Kutter Crawford	R	NYY, Gm. 2	5.2%	-135	9.5	45%	4.6	2.7	4.7
6.6	Brandon Williamson	L	@DET	7.9%	-120	9	51%	4.7	2.5	4.3
6.6	Joey Wentz	L	CIN	0.2%	100	9	49%	4.8	2.6	4.2
6.4	Joan Adon	R	@PIT	0.6%	122	9	46%	5.0	2.7	4.3
6.1	Zack Littell	R	@MIN	5.2%	115	8.5	48%	4.7	2.8	4.2
6.0	John Means	L	STL	8.0%	-195	10	57%	4.5	2.7	4.0
5.8	Randy Vasquez	R	@BOS, Gm. 1	0.5%	122	10	52%	4.3	2.5	4.0
5.0	Adam Wainwright	R	@BAL	5.3%	162	10	43%	5.6	3.7	4.0
3.1	Javier Assad	R	@COL	26.4%	-190	12	57%	4.9	4.1	4.2
0.3	Chris Flexen	R	CHC	0.6%	158	12	43%	4.7	4.7	3.9

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

The San Diego Padres rallied for four runs in the top of the ninth, breaking a 7-7 tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Josh Hader was summoned to secure the win, but was noticeably off his game, perhaps because he hadn't appeared in over a week. The Dodgers scored once and had the bases loaded with two outs, but Hader retired Chris Taylor to end it. Not only was he not credited with a save after coming in with a four-run lead, but Hader threw 43 pitches, so he's likely on the shelf for at least one game. Scott Barlow is well rested and has pitched well since being acquired by the Padres, so he's the prime option to fill in as closer.
Camilo Doval recorded four outs, preserving a 3-3 tie before the Giants walked off the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 in 10 innings. Doval's 19-pitch effort came a day after tossing a dozen on Sunday. However, Doval cannot be ruled out from appearing on three straight days after doing it in late July, with the third outing taking place after throwing 45 pitches in the prior two.
Paul Sewald was a bit shaky, but he held on for his 33rd save in the Arizona Diamondbacks' 4-3 win over the New York Mets. Sewald put the winning runs on with a pair of walks, but he escaped without allowing a run. His wildness ran his pitch count to 23, which comes on top of nine pitches on Saturday. However, Sewald has pitched in back-to-back games with a higher previous workload, so he should be able to answer the call today.
Raisel Iglesias couldn't hold a two run-lead in the ninth inning of yesterday's opener, allowing the Philadelphia Phillies to send the game into extra innings. The Atlanta Braves scored twice in the top of the 10th, then Kirby Yates locked it down with Iglesias capturing the vulture win. Iglesias tossed 15 pitches after throwing seven on Sunday. He's already appeared on three straight days twice since the break, so he'll probably do it again today if needed.
Two twinbills put four bullpens in the Tuesday spotlight. In Boston, Chris Martin, John Schreiber, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski are all in play for the Red Sox to help bridge to Kenley Jansen. Martin is the chief target. On the other side, Clay Holmes (43.1% rostered) leads the Yankees with 18 saves, with Wandy Peralta, Jonathan Loaisiga and Tommy Kahnle all posting multiple holds over the past two weeks. In the southside of Chicago, Bryan Shaw, Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos are all in play for the White Sox. Carlos Hernandez has struggled lately, but he's still the best bet to serve as the Royals closer.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	9/11	P3	Strk
Josh Hader	SD	95.9%	43	43	1
Camilo Doval	SF	89.9%	19	31	2
Paul Sewald	ARI	64.4%	23	34	1
Raisel Iglesias	ATL	78.7%	15	22	2

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF -- 46%) at Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford
Trevor Story (BOS, 2B -- 10%) vs. Randy Vasquez and Carlos Rodon
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF -- 15%) vs. Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 43%) vs. Vasquez and Rodon
Edward Olivares (KC, RF -- 2%) at Dylan Cease and Touki Toussaint
Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B -- 5%) vs. Singer and Lyles
Gavin Sheets (CHW, RF -- 0%) vs. Singer and Lyles
DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B -- 43%) at Pivetta and Crawford
Tim Anderson (CHW, SS -- 31%) vs. Singer and Lyles
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 37%) at Pivetta and Crawford

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B -- 59%) vs. Max Scherzer
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 53%) at Sean Manaea
Bryson Stott (PHI, SS -- 73%) vs. Max Fried
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 87%) vs. Fried
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 83%) at Joey Wentz
Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B -- 73%) at Joe Ryan
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF -- 88%) at Zack Wheeler
Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 73%) at Hyun Jin Ryu
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 63%) vs. Patrick Sandoval
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF -- 76%) at Wheeler

Prop of the Day

Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks, 3.5 strikeouts (-165/+125)

PROJECTION

THE BAT X sees Nelson putting up 3.4 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.9% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $28.45.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

The Mets have four bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K%.
Because of his large reverse platoon split, Nelson will hold the advantage facing six batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in this outing.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

When estimating his strikeout talent, THE BAT X forecasts Nelson in the 9th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
THE BAT X projects Nelson to throw 85 pitches in today's game (13th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
This game is predicted to have the 14th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
The wind projects to be blowing out to center at 8.1 mph in this game, the third-best of the day for bats.