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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Ronel Blanco of the Houston Astros makes his first start since throwing a no-hitter. Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyApr 7, 2024, 03:42 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          That was nice, can he do it again?

          Sunday's 14-game slate begins with four games at 1:35 PM ET. (The matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins has been postponed.) The ESPN Sunday night affair is a rematch of last season's ALCS with the Texas Rangers hosting the Houston Astros. The schedule sets up nicely for those needing a last-minute push in head-to-head leagues. There are two starters with a rostership exceeding 90%, while three of the top four are all available in at least 75% of ESPN leagues. But first, here is a look at a couple of arms coming off outstanding 2024 debuts.

          Ronel Blanco will be on the hill for the Astros. This is his first start since dealing a no-hitter earlier in the week against the Toronto Blue Jays. Blanco fanned a respectable seven in his masterpiece, but more importantly, he yielded just four hard hit balls. According to Statcast, he was expected to surrender 2.8 hits, so while he was a little lucky, Blanco was also very effective. That said, he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his earlier effort against a potent Rangers lineup.

          Shota Imanaga didn't debut with a no-hitter, but he did throw six shutout frames at home against the Colorado Rockies, striking out nine while allowing just two hits, both in the sixth inning. The Cubs recognized the perceived rise in Imanaga's four-seam fastball, but they wanted him to throw it up in the zone more than he did in Japan. In the spring, they devised an apparatus to help train Imanaga to throw more high fastballs. So far, so good, but it's one game against a team that historically struggles on the road facing left-handed pitching. Imanaga's new approach will be tested on Sunday with the Los Angeles Dodgers wrapping up a series in Wrigley Field. Sunday marks the last day of the head-to-head scoring week, so trusting Imanaga (74.2% rostered in ESPN leagues) is more about team needs than analytics, but it's noteworthy that the lefty is ranked seventh on today's probable pitching chart, one spot behind Blanco.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • Spencer Strider underwent an MRI on Saturday which revealed damage to his UCL. A visit with Dr. Keith Meister is on tap. Dr. Meister specializes in the internal brace procedure which requires less or a recovery time than Tommy John surgery. Strider is facing a lengthy absence, with one possible scenario being a small sprain, requiring around two months to heal. The surgeries would cost Strider the season, but the internal brace procedure could allow for an earlier return next season.

          • The news is similarly vague on Trevor Story's shoulder injury. He's been diagnosed with a dislocated shoulder and has been placed on the IL. There is hope Story is not lost for the season, but he will be out for a long stretch. The Boston Red Sox return home from a season-opening road trip on Monday, on which Story will undergo a more compete examination. This will hopefully establish a clearer timeline for his return.

          • Kevin Gausman had a rough second start. After having his 2024 debut delayed after experiencing shoulder soreness in the spring, he threw 4 1/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in his first start, striking out six with no walks. Yesterday, Gausman managed only 1 1/3 frames against the New York Yankees, surrendering five earned runs. The most concerning aspect is his velocity was significantly down on Saturday. His four-seam fastball averaged 94.5 mph with a max of 97.6 mph in his debut but dipped to just 91.4 mph with a high of 94.6 mph yesterday. There have been no reports of injury, but this loss of velocity is worrisome.

          • Max Fried was hit hard again, though his velocity is on par with career levels. Even so, the southpaw opened the season with 10 earned runs allowed over five innings, punching out six with four free passes. He lines up for a home game against the Mets next week, which is a favorable matchup to get back on track.

          • On Friday, it appeared James McArthur usurped the Kansas City Royals closing duties from Will Smith. On Saturday, manager Matt Quatraro said not so fast, opting for Chris Stratton to nail down the 3-0 win over the Chicago White Sox. McArthur threw only two pitches the previous day, so he should have been available. Further clouding the scenario is Nick Anderson was used as the eighth inning setup man after starter Michael Wacha dazzled with seven scoreless stanzas. Perhaps the only takeaway from the Royals bullpen is Smith has fallen out of favor, with McArthur, Stratton and Anderson all in the late-inning mix.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Continuing the theme of pitchers coming off stellar debuts, Tanner Houck (23.8%) wraps up a season opening 10-game road trip for the Boston Red Sox. He'll take the hill for the finale of a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels. Houck fanned 10 with no walks in his first start against the Oakland Athletics. Asking for a repeat is aggressive, but Houck merits a spot start facing a lineup striking out at the seventh highest clip to begin the season.

          • Andrew Abbott (18.8%) is not only the day's top-ranked streaming option, but he's also the top overall pitcher with the Cincinnati Reds hosting the New York Mets. Abbott held his own on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies in his first start, allowing two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings with four strikeouts and two walks. The Great American Ballpark is a home run haven, and Abbott has experienced issues at home so there is some risk. The Mets only have six homers through Friday's action, with Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez their chief power sources.

          • Cristopher Sanchez (13.0%) is the second highest ranked hurler on the card. He'll toe the rubber on the road against the Washington Nationals. Sanchez was a favorite for those drafting in deeper leagues. He didn't disappoint in his inaugural effort, punching out eight Reds with just one walk in five stanzas. The Nationals offense is slow out of the gate as they're averaging the seventh fewest runs per game so far this season.

          • There are two places to look for stolen bases for those needing a boost in categorical leagues. The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are both in the top-five in stolen bases while they each face a team ranked in the top-five yielding steals. The Brewers are home against Emerson Hancock and the Seattle Mariners. Brice Turang (22.0%) already has six swipes with Sal Frelick (7.9%) and Jackson Chourio (43.3%) also candidates to run. The Rays finish a rare series in Coors Field with Dakota Hudson starting for the Colorado Rockies. Jose Siri (6.0%) and Jose Caballero (6.3%) both have four steals and won't let the altitude stop them from padding their totals.

          • There is more bad news on the Injury front with the Cleveland Guardians announcing that Shane Bieber needs Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of the season and a chunk of next year as well. Bieber was off to a fabulous start, and the news was unexpected. Bieber will be a free agent after the season.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The Chicago White Sox visit the Kansas City Royals today. The temperature will be in the mid-60s with the wind blowing out. These are favorable hitting conditions which no doubt contribute to an over/under of 9.5 runs. However, Garrett Crochet is taking the mound for the White Sox and he's posted a 1.38 ERA over his first two starts, fanning 16 with just one walk. The opponents were the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves, the latter of which leads the league in scoring. Royals starter Alec Marsh stifled the potent Baltimore Orioles in his first start, surrendering just one run in seven frames. The White Sox are averaging the fewest runs per game in the league and will be without Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. The risk is neither bullpen is solid, but I am still trusting the starting pitching to keep this game under 9.5 (-125).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Finish your draft before the first pitch of Sunday night's game and all stats will retroactively count for Week 1. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday