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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Blake Snell of the San Francisco Giants will make his season debut. Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
          • Todd Zola, FantasyApr 8, 2024, 03:27 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Will Snell eclipse last season's stats?

          It's a busy slate for a Monday with 13 games, but at least the west coasters don't have to set their alarms to make lineup lock with the first game commencing at 5:10 p.m. ET with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Chicago White Sox. The last of the baker's dozen contests is at 9:45 p.m. ET with the San Francisco Giants hosting the Washington Nationals. Blake Snell is slated to make his debut for the home team.

          Snell took home the NL Cy Young Award last season. He also earned the AL version in 2018. Last season's award was controversial in that Snell's expected ERA metrics were well above his actual mark of 2.25. Plus, his 13.3% walk rate was much higher than what is usually associated with the best pitcher in the league. "He was lucky," is a viable claim, with evidence such as a .256 BABIP and 86.7% left on base mark.

          However, there is next level analysis, courtesy of Nick Pollack from Pitcher List demonstrating Snell did a remarkable job inducing weak contact by continually locating his pitches in areas prone to weak contact. Granted, this seems contradictory; how can someone with a 13.3% walk rate consistently work in an area generating weak contact? Some is the narrative suggesting a few of Snell's free passes were not classified as intentional, but he was pitching around the batter. Even so, as a numbers guy, I have trouble processing the apparent disconnect.

          The good news is Snell landed in another pitcher's park, so any impending regression could be softened. That said, Snell has always had a favorable home venue. He began his career with the Tampa Bay Rays in Tropicana Field before spending the last three seasons with the San Diego Padres in Petco Park. Snell's strikeout rate has been north of 30% each of the last six seasons and strikeouts are key to all fantasy formats. Just be ready for an ERA at least a run higher than last season's level.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • In his first outing since his no-hitter at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, Ronel Blanco tossed 5 2/3 more hitless frames before Adolis Garcia broke through for the Texas Rangers. Blanco then retired Evan Carter, ending his night with six innings of shutout ball. Keeping the Rangers offense in check, especially in Arlington is impressive. However, Blanco recorded only four strikeouts while issuing four free passes, bringing his season total to a pedestrian 11 strikeouts with six walks in 15 stanzas. Blanco has increased the use of his changeup while throwing fewer sliders, so there could be a reason behind his success, but a .029 BABIP and 100% LOB mark are due for a steep correction. I'm willing to admit Blanco is better than initially projected, but he is still due for a return to reality, perhaps as soon as his next outing -- a rematch with the Rangers, albeit at home.

          • The Miami Marlins finally got off the schneid with their first victory coming courtesy of Max Meyer. It was Meyer's first career win as he threw six innings with just one run allowed in a road date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Meyer should get at least one more start before Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett return, likely next week. Both are on rehab assignments after experiencing the same issue in the spring, a shoulder impingement.

          • Garrett Crochet continued his strong start to the season with five strikeouts and no walks over five frames. He allowed two earned runs, but still left the game with the White Sox holding a 3-2 lead over the Kansas City Royals. Crochet's 18 innings and 21 strikeouts leads the league, while his 29.9 K-BB% is an impressive eighth best among qualified pitchers.

          • Unfortunately for Crochet, the Royals rallied for three runs in the seventh inning, providing the winning margin in their 5-3 victory. On Saturday, it was Nick Anderson working the eighth for the hold with Chris Stratton handling the ninth for the save. Yesterday, John Schreiber collected the win with a scoreless seventh inning, followed by Will Smith for the hold and James McArthur for his second save of the season. The takeaway is that McArthur has wrested the primary closing gig from Smith, but he may not collect all the saves with Stratton in the mix.

          • Those playing in weekly leagues may have difficult decisions with CJ Abrams and Willson Contreras both missing multiple games over the weekend. Abrams has a bone bruise on his left pinky fingers, keeping him on the bench both Saturday and Sunday. Compounding the conundrum is that the Nationals don't play until 9:45 PM ET, so the lineup will come out well after many leagues lock moves for the week. Abrams has two homers and three steals to begin the season.

          • Contreras hasn't appeared since being hit on the hand by a pitch last Wednesday. The Cardinals are optimistic that Contreras will return early this week which is why he hasn't been placed on the IL. Ivan Herrera has been handling the catching duties, and batting cleanup with Pedro Pages called up to serve as the backup. The safe move is to keep Contreras on your bench in weekly leagues, especially those requiring just one catcher in the active lineup.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Ten of Monday's probable starters are rostered in more than 80% of ESPN leagues, but there are still some enticing streaming options, beginning with Nestor Cortes (28.5% rostered in ESPN leagues). The New York Yankees entertain the Miami Marlins with a 6:05 PM first pitch. The weather is still brisk in the northeast, favoring pitching. Through Saturday's action, the Marlins are averaging the sixth fewest runs per game. Cortes sports a high 6.30 ERA after two starts, but they were road affairs against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros. Look for a turnaround from Cortes in his first outing in the Bronx.

          • Guardians starter Triston McKenzie (33.7%) is ranked a few spots lower than Cortes, but his home date with the White Sox is just as good of a matchup, perhaps better. McKenzie struggled in his season opener, surrendering four earned runs on the road to the Seattle Mariners in just 3 1/3 innings. His first home effort comes against the lineup averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB, and will be without Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez, two of the White Sox best hitters. McKenzie is in a great spot to get back on track.

          • Sometimes knowing who not to start, especially early in the fantasy week, is just as important as identifying solid spot starters. Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks open a road series against the Colorado Rockies. Very few pitchers warrant a road start in Coors Field, but Gallen is on the short list. However, despite a low .82 ERA over two games, Gallen's velocity has been down. With a second start this week over the weekend at home against the Cardinals, Gallen should be used in weekly leagues. However, leaving him on the bench in daily leagues is defensible, if not recommended.

          • Mitch Keller's fantasy managers also have a difficult decision. The Pittsburgh Pirates will open a home interleague set with the Detroit Tigers. Keller is sporting a 6.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP after two games, both road affairs. Keller fanned eight in his first 11 innings, a level well below his norm. With no indication he's hurt, and his first start at pitching-friendly PNC Park, it's safe to trust Keller to turn things around.

          • Betting tip of the day: Blake Snell has been stretching out in extended spring training. He reportedly looks sharp but will be limited to around 70 pitches for his Giants debut this evening. Last year, Snell recorded a strikeout every 13.5 pitches, which equated to 5.2 K's in 70 pitches. Tonight's opponent, the Nationals, have fanned at the 10th-lowest pace to open the season. Putting this together, I'm taking under 5.5 strikeouts (+145).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday