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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Matt Waldron has added increased velocity to his knuckleball. John Adams/Icon Sportswire
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 3, 2024, 03:07 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Knuckling Up?

          It has been a while since MLB has had a knuckleball specialist in its starting pitcher inventory. This season San Diego Padres SP Matt Waldron broke camp in the rotation, but he's not really a knuckleball specialist since he also throws a four-seamer, two-seamer, sweeper and occasional cutter.

          Up until his last outing, Waldron's knuckler was his most-used pitch as he floated it 37.7% of the time, with a high of 45.1% and a low of 30.6%. Last Tuesday, Waldron's knuckleball usage was 55.3% when he tossed seven scoreless frames while scattering six hits at home against the Miami Marlins. Waldron fanned eight and issued no free passes.

          For the season, Waldon has a 4.26 ERA but a high 1.37 WHIP, emanating from a bloated .327 BABIP. He has a solid 24.2% strikeout rate with a palatable 7.7% walk rate. However, over his past four outings, he has rung up hitters at a 33.7% clip while walking them at a lower 6.5% rate.

          There is no indication that Waldron will continue to use his knuckleball more than half of the time. As just indicated, he has been on a roll, during which he threw it at a 33.3%, 43.9% and 34.1% rate. Perhaps it's a matter of getting a feel for what's working, or perhaps driven by matchups. It will be intriguing to learn how he approaches lineups the second and third time he faces them this season.

          From a fantasy baseball perspective, Waldron has seemingly figured out how to best integrate knuckleballs into his repertoire. He's now cemented in the streaming bucket, especially for home affairs.

          On Monday, Waldron (6.2% rostered in ESPN leagues) is my favorite streaming option, even though he's ranked the third-lowest starting pitcher on an abbreviated eight-game slate. Waldron has a road date with the offensively challenged Los Angeles Angels. He'll face a lineup with the ninth-lowest wOBA and ninth-highest strikeout rate facing right-handers.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Philadelphia Phillies OF Brandon Marsh injured his hamstring in the bottom of the eighth inning during last night's 5-4 extra-inning loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. He left the game with OF Cristian Pache coming in as a pinch-runner and taking over in left field. If Marsh is out for an extended period, Marsh and 2B/OF Whit Merrifield would be the likely replacements.

          • San Francisco Giants SP Blake Snell was lifted from Sunday's contest after throwing 99 pitches, spanning 4 2/3 innings. The bases were loaded, but a groin injury deprived Snell of the opportunity to get out of the jam and have a chance at a win (since the Giants were leading 3-1 at the time). The New York Yankees subsequently tied the game on a two-run double by OF Alex Verdugo off RP Erik Miller. Following the game, it was reported that Snell was slated for an MRI today, with the likelihood of another visit to the IL. The Giants will likely continue to deploy Spencer Howard as a primary pitcher with SP Keaton Winn also in the mix. Winn is currently on a rehab assignment for a forearm injury, but could be brought back early to help fortify the big league rotation.

          • Boston Red Sox OF Wilyer Abreu hurt his ankle in the dugout yesterday. He was removed for pinch-hitter Jamie Westbrook in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was the first-ever plate appearance for the 29-year-old, and it came with two outs in a tie game with runners on first and second. Westbrook coaxed a walk, but C Connor Wong flew out with the bases loaded, sending the tilt to extra frames. The Detroit Tigers scored four in the 10th to win 8-4. The Red Sox are off today, so Abreu's status probably won't be clarified until tomorrow. Meanwhile, with regular 2B Vaughn Grissom on the IL, Westbrook is expected to serve as the right-handed part of a keystone platoon.

          • In a freak accident, Baltimore Orioles 2B Jorge Mateo was hit in the back of the helmet by OF Cedric Mullins as both were in the on-deck circle. Mateo was bending down to pick up a bat weight when he was struck. It wasn't even a swing as Mullins was just lowering his bat. Even so, Mateo has entered the league's concussion protocol. The Orioles head north for a three-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays, beginning this evening. Mateo's status should be revealed later today. If Mateo isn't cleared to play, IF Ramon Urias is the likely substitute.

          • Sunday marked the third straight game in which 1B Andrew Vaughn sat due to a strained left finger. The Chicago White Sox hope he can return when they next take the field tomorrow. If not, IF/OF Gavin Sheets will continue to man first base.

          • Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams was sidelined for the second straight game due to a sore shoulder. Abrams had jammed his shoulder diving for a ball and is considered to be day-to-day. If Abrams remains on the shelf, INF Ildemaro Vargas will probably continue to cover shortstop.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          All eight of Monday's games are under the lights. Action commences at 6:40 p.m. ET.

          • As is often the case with abbreviated slates, two of the better fantasy spot starters pair off. On Monday, The New York Mets open a series in the nation's capital. The Washington Nationals will give SP MacKenzie Gore (24.5% rostered) the nod, to be opposed by Tylor Megill (4.4% rostered). Gore is ranked one spot higher, despite the Mets' offense having a slightly higher wOBA than the Nationals. That said, Gore has spun four straight quality starts, recording a 2.19 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in that span. More importantly, in those 24⅔ innings, Gore punched out 30 while walking just six.

          • Megill is also coming off a strong effort. Last time out at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Megill fanned nine while issuing just one walk in seven scoreless stanzas. He made that start after seven days of rest. Monday's outing will be following five days of rest. Even so, the Nationals rank 22nd in wOBA facing righties.

          • In today's landscape, a lot of teams deploy the opener-primary pitcher tandem, but it's mostly out of desperation. The Tampa Bay Rays were the first to use it and have done so successfully. Last season, the San Francisco Giants utilized the approach a lot, with favorable results. They continue to do so, with RP Spencer Howard (0.0% rostered) debuting in primary pitcher capacity last week. The former Phillies and Rangers prospect threw four shutout stanzas against one of his former teams fanning five Phillies with no walks. On Monday, Howard is slated to serve as the Giants' bulk reliever in the desert against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks sport the seventh-poorest wOBA with a righty on the fill, putting Howard in play.

          • The supply of streamers on an eight-game slate is already limited. When one of the matchups is in Coors field, it is further thinned. On the other hand, fantasy hitting lineups will have holes, with available batters from the visiting Cincinnati Reds and host Colorado Rockies front and center. For the Reds, only Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer are rostered in more than 28% of ESPN leagues. Everyone else is worth checking out, led by TJ Friedl (27.4% rostered), Jeimer Candelario (12.3% rostered), Jake Fraley (2.4% rostered) and Tyler Stephenson (5.4% rostered). The Rockies will send the slate's bottom-ranked pitcher, Ryan Feltner, to the hill.

          • The Reds will counter with lefty Andrew Abbott. Abbott is ranked just one spot higher, but he's the better hurler. Even so, righty-swinging Ezequiel Tovar (23.8% rostered), Brendan Rodgers (2.1% rostered), Elias Diaz (12.7% rostered), Kris Bryant (4.4% rostered) and Elehuris Montero (.5% rostered) are hitting options.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Angels have fanned at the ninth-highest clip in the league. Tonight, as previously noted, they face Matt Waldron. He has punched out 25 hitters over his prior 17 2/3 innings. Look for that dominance to continue and take the Waldron for over 5.5 strikeouts (+190).

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday