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          Fantasy baseball advice for Tuesday: Is Jared Jones a safe play?

          Jared Jones returns from the IL looking to get back on track. Justin Berl/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 27, 2024, 03:08 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Keeping up with Jones

          Before Pittsburgh Pirates SP Paul Skenes was the talk of the town, fellow rookie and teammate SP Jared Jones was the biggest story of the early season. Jones earned a spot in the Pirates' opening day rotation, then began the season with a 2.68 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his first seven outings, fanning 52 while issuing just five walks in those 41 frames.

          Jones leveled off to a 4.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over his ensuing nine efforts, punching out only 46 in 50 innings while walking 22. Jones then was placed on the 15-day IL with a Grade 2 strain to his right lat. After being shut down for a couple of weeks, Jones began a steady ramp up, culminating in three rehab appearances for Triple-A Indianapolis. Jones struck out 16 with just one walk in 11 rehab innings. After ringing up 10 hitters in five frames on Aug. 20, Jones is set to be reinstated from the IL to face the Cubs at home on Tuesday night.

          With Jones back, there are two fantasy-relevant questions. How well, and how much will Jones pitch? Addressing the latter, the Pirates stated the plan this season was to limit Jones workload, but the injury has ostensibly done it for them. Last year, Jones threw a combined 126⅓ innings in Double-A and Triple-A. Including his rehab assignment, Jones is at 102 innings. If he pitches with at least five days of rest, which is likely, Jones lines up for six more starts, including his Tuesday return. This equates to 30 to 35 innings, or around 135 for the season.

          This is the neighborhood planned to keep their prized 23-year-old right-hander. As far as quality goes, Jones' command and control slipped after his splendid beginning to his career. While it's encouraging that Jones pitched well on rehab, averaging over 97 mph on his fastball, he needs to keep walks and homers in check.

          On Tuesday, Jones (44% rostered in ESPN leagues) has a home date with the Chicago Cubs. Away from Wrigley Field, the Cubs tote a slightly above average offense versus right-handers, with a below average strikeout rate. In formats with innings or games started maximums, keeping Jones on reserve is defensible. In season-long formats, there's no reason not to activate Jones for his return. The Pirates-Cubs tilt is one of six games to start in the 6:40 p.m. ET block. The remaining nine contests are staggered from 7:10 p.m. to 10:10 p.m. ET.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          • The Miami Marlins have indeed placed SS Xavier Edwards on the 10-day IL due to mild back soreness. He underwent an MRI on Sunday, but despite the results coming back negative, the club is taking the safe route with their breakout shortstop. Vidal Brujan is expected to be his primary replacement, and is fantasy relevant with the Marlins still having three games remaining in their series at Coors Field.

          • Speaking of that series, the Colorado Rockies were missing two of their best players in the opener. Ezequiel Tovar was held out of the lineup thanks to a sports hernia. The club is hopeful that he'll be back at shortstop for tonight's affair. On the other hand, OF Brenton Doyle was scratched last night because of a leg issue, with the likelihood that he misses one or two more games. Sam Hilliard and Jordan Beck are fill-in candidates.

          • Baltimore Orioles 1B Ryan Mountcastle has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a left wrist sprain. He's missed the last three games, so the stint can be backdated in favor of a potential September 2 return, although the club hasn't officially announced a timetable. Ryan O'Hearn is expected to shift from DH to first base, with Eloy Jimenez garnering more playing time as the designated hitter.

          • Kansas City Royals SP Cole Ragans was removed in the fifth inning of the opener of yesterday's doubleheader with the Cleveland Guardians due to left leg cramping. He had not been sharp, yielding four walks in his four-plus frames, but it isn't clear whether or not he was affected in the first four stanzas. The club expects Ragans to make his next start, currently slated for this weekend in Houston.

          • Pirates skipper Derek Shelton announced that Oneil Cruz will transition away from shortstop, with the goal of making him the everyday center fielder. All of Cruz's defensive metrics have been below-average. He's 6-foot-7 and, while there have been successful tall shortstops, Cruz is the tallest to ever play the position. Cruz will serve as the team's DH while he takes reps in the outfield. Throwing won't be a problem as Cruz has one of the strongest arms in the league, but he will need to learn the nuances of throwing from the outfield.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Tuesday's top-ranked streamer is Atlanta Braves RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (46.6% rostered). The Braves' offense has been injury-plagued all season. The pitching has incurred its share of health woes too, so the job Schwellenbach has done as a rookie is a key reason the club remains in the postseason picture. His record is just 5-6, and the Braves have won just six of his 14 starts, but Schwellenbach has averaged a tick under six stanzas per outings, helping save the bullpen. Not to mention, Schwellenbach deserves a couple more victories with a 3.94 ERA (3.12 xFIP and SIERA). Schwellenbach faces a tough Twins lineup in the Target Center. Like Jared Jones, Schwellenbach warrants a start in season long leads, but there may be better options over the course of the week in leagues with games started or innings limits.

          • He may not be ranked as high as the others, but by virtue of his opponent, Texas Rangers LHP Andrew Heaney (11.5% rostered) is in play in leagues with games started or innings limits. Heaney will take the hill in Guaranteed Rate Park against the lowly Chicago White Sox. Since the All-Star break, the White Sox have recorded an anemic .233 wOBA versus left-handers while fanning 27.3% of the time.

          • Lastly, as much as Schwellenbach has rescued the Braves, RHP Tobias Myers (18.2% rostered) has followed suit for the Milwaukee Brewers. The first-place Brewers entertain the San Francisco Giants. Streaming in American Family Field can be risky, but Myers has handled his home digs as well as he has fared on the road. To wit, Myers sports a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home. Since the break, the Giants have recorded the ninth lowest wOBA and seventh highest strikeout rate facing righties.

          • Betting tip of the day: New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge has posted a .408/.551/.883 line since the All-Star break. His batting average is just six points below the league's average slugging percentage over that span. Tonight, Judge will step into the box against Washington Nationals LHP Patrick Corbin. Not that Judge needs any other help, but the gametime temperature is expected to be around 90 degrees. I'll back Judge for over 3.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+125).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday