Whether you're rhyming or running your fantasy squads, there's nothing worse than just using clichés and played-out ideas instead of keeping it fresh. This season, in particular, shapes up as one where utilizing the same stale, old strategies will lead to nothing but lost battles and unsatisfying games. So far, the NBA has fundamentally changed this season, on a level that even the decision-makers of the league likely didn't suspect. So, as we approach the 30-game mark, it's high time that we, as fantasy basketball managers, make a few adjustments to our strategies to optimize our teams in this new world.
"This ol' sucka MC stepped up to me
Challenged Andre' to a battle and I stood there patiently
As he tripped and stumbled over clichés,
So-called free-styling..." -Outkast, Two Dope Boys
During the last few seasons leading up to this one, the NBA kept upping and re-upping the ceiling as far as points scored and scoring efficiency were concerned. Teams had finally figured out how to optimize their production in the face of the 2005 rule change that emphasized no hand-checking on the perimeter. After 15 years, the Seven Seconds or Less Suns, the dynasty Splash Brothers Warriors, the perfect storm of Daryl Morey's analytics, Mike D'Antoni's wide-open offense and James Harden's unique skillset with the Rockets, the NBA had evolved. The league was full of perimeter creators off the dribble that were deadly from 3-point range, excellent at driving into the paint and creating contact, proficient at the step-back and Euro-steps that may have been called for traveling in generations past, and essentially unguardable without fouling within the framework of the NBA as-was.
Then, this past offseason, the NBA made a "small" rule change that offensive players would no longer be rewarded for contorting their bodies into unnatural shooting motions in order to draw contact, particularly behind the 3-point line. It was styled as a way to minimize the spate of 4-point plays that were becoming more prevalent in the league, and to make the game more aesthetically pleasing after the complaints that some players (**cough***Harden***cough) were making the game less fun to watch.
Most players didn't expect to be affected too much by this rule. Damian Lillard articulated this sentiment last month, "I felt like coming in, the rule change wouldn't affect me, because I don't the trick the referees, I don't do the trick plays, and it's just unacceptable."
But, thus far, Lillard has proven to be wrong in his assumption. The rule change has obliterated the offensive production of the ball-dominant, shooter-scorer volume creator-off-the-dribble type players that were the most productive offensive players in the NBA as recently as the end of last season. How much has the change affected perimeter players (read: guards) vs forwards and bigs? Well, let's compare with some back-of-the-envelope analysis.