There are certain things that are unique to each daily fantasy sport and certain things that are constant. Knowing how to play DFS makes it much easier to break into a new sport. I assume that most people getting ready to dive into NBA DFS have played NFL and/or MLB, CFB, PGA or some other game previously. That helps.
I'll be perfectly honest: Pro basketball is my favorite DFS sport. I started out playing the NFL sporadically in the fall of 2011, when the NBA was in a lockout. When football ended and the NBA started in January 2012, I switched over to trying some NBA DFS contests ... even though I really didn't follow professional basketball. That's when I fell in love with daily fantasy for real. Being a scientist, I think I'm drawn to the more predictive nature of basketball. And through DFS, I've come to genuinely love the game of basketball.
That isn't to say that I get it right every single time, but we can at least be confident that a player on the court for 35 minutes will score more fantasy points than a player getting 15 minutes. That correlation simply isn't there in baseball, or even football. One snap, one target for a wide receiver can result in a 70-yard touchdown while 45 snaps and 10 targets can result in three catches for 22 yards. In baseball, one pinch-hit home run by someone you've never heard of can blow away five Mike Trout at-bats.
The biggest bogeyman in NBA DFS is the late scratch. Starting lineups are often released only right before game time, and there's often no rhyme or reason to a coach's decisions to rest certain players certain nights (See: Popovich, Gregg). Before you commit to entering a DFS contest, commit to being online and alert for late-breaking lineup news. Twitter is the single best source for this information. The half hour before NBA lineups lock is frantic, some nights more than others. If you can't be attentive during that time, it can be very risky to even play. Of course there are in-game injuries and bad shooting nights in basketball that we can't control, but if we're alert leading up to tipoff, we at least put ourselves in a good position to make the most of our lineups.
In this article, we'll continue getting you ready for NBA DFS with a wide-angle analysis of the factors that can help you zero in on the teams and situations to target each night. I approach every DFS slate in two ways: First, I take this broad overview approach, then I zoom in on individual players and salaries. Joe Kaiser also touches on some of these things in his "How to build a winning lineup in NBA DFS" article.
Let's get to it.
How to use sportsbook lines
The first thing to do when approaching the NBA slate you're playing is to check in with what Vegas is predicting about each game that day. The Vegas lines take into account many of the factors we recommend looking at to identify players in good situations, so it's a prime shortcut or starting point. We actually can run into overconfidence issues if we weigh information that Vegas already accounts for separately and in addition to how we weigh the Vegas lines in our assessments. Obviously, the higher the over/under, or point total, Vegas puts on a game, the more scoring potential players in the game have. These can be the most fruitful games to target.
The reason for looking at all of the games in the slate and not just picking out those with 200-plus totals is to see the distribution of point totals. Is there only one high projected game? Several? None? This can give you a feel for how the rest of the field will approach the slate and get you in a "game theory" mindset. If there is only one high-scoring game, it's likely that everyone will be interested in using players from that game. In cash contests, you'll want exposure to these players, too, but in tournaments, it may make sense to fade them. When there are several high-scoring games on the schedule, ownership should be more distributed.
Look for possible blowouts
The other thing you see in the Vegas lines is the potential for a blowout. When one team is significantly favored over another, we have to beware. Is it a good idea to target the guys on the favored team because they're likely to score a lot of fantasy points en route to the big lead? Or is it smarter to fade them because the starters are likely to rest in the fourth quarter with such a lead? Part of the answer depends on the roster and the coach's tendencies. However, a study I did a couple of seasons ago suggests that the caliber of player matters quite a bit to this decision.
Stud players -- those in the top tier of salary -- rarely meet value in an actual blowout game. That goes for both the favorite and the underdog. What we often refer to as "scrubs," however, those midtier to minimum-priced guys who play off the bench, can be great values in blowouts. This class of player is more likely to exceed their value threshold thanks to their low salaries and expanded playing time in the blowout, and the trend I found was stronger for the scrubs on the underdog team. Midpriced players -- starters who aren't dominant at their positions -- fall somewhere in between ... they aren't markedly worse in blowouts, but neither are they markedly better.
The take-home strategy from this little study is to generally avoid the studs in a blowout, but consider using the low-priced bench players -- especially on the underdog team. Make sure the guy you're choosing has a clear path to extra minutes should the starter be rested, and that he's shown capability given an expanded role; this doesn't apply to every bench player. One final thought on this: The study I did was based on games that actually ended up blowouts. Vegas doesn't always get it right, though more often than not, it is darn close.
Be wary of pace
Pace is a statistic that you should be aware of for DFS purposes, but it isn't the be-all-end-all stat that it can be made out to be. It refers to the number of possessions a team uses per game. Thus, higher-paced teams have more opportunities to score fantasy points, assuming that offensive possessions yield more opportunities than defensive (points, assists and offensive rebounds vs. steals, blocks and defensive rebounds). Why be cautious with pace, then? First, pace is definitely already factored into the Vegas line. Second, pace correlates with fantasy performance in a significant way only for point guards and power forwards. There is a trend toward correlation for centers, and no relationship at all for shooting guards and small forwards. The highest-paced teams from 2014-15 were the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers.
Offensive and defensive efficiency are key
One thing I do like to look at is offensive and defensive efficiency. It's like a measurement of how well teams are using their possessions in terms of scoring (which, to be fair, isn't the only way to score fantasy points). Golden State led the league in offensive efficiency with 109.7 points per 100 possessions, while Philadelphia, despite being a high-paced team, was the worst with 93.0 points per 100 possessions. Use defensive efficiency as a warning sign -- the highest-ranking teams (Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks, San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies) allow only around 98 points per 100 possessions to their opponents. Just like you might use a potent offense facing a weak defense in NFL DFS, you can use these team efficiency stats to pluck out the most -- and least -- favorable matchups each night. It's a good way to find unique opportunities that come from lower-point-total games.
Team record doesn't matter
How good a basketball team is, in terms of its actual record, has little to no bearing on whether its players are good DFS options on any given night. There is no correlation between team record and fantasy scoring in basketball like there is in baseball. (In the NFL, only quarterback fantasy points are correlated with team record.) It makes sense if you consider fantasy scoring for the two sports. All fantasy scoring in baseball is predicated on getting on base and scoring runs -- hits, RBIs, home runs and walks all lead to teams scoring runs and thus winning games. In basketball, points and assists are the only scoring-based stats. Rebounds, steals and blocks all count for fantasy but don't necessarily lead to the team scoring or winning. Therefore, we can target players on teams who don't win many games, and such players are frequently less expensive than their winning counterparts.
Using these factors to get a feel for the landscape of the particular slate you're playing and identify the matchups that could lead to enhanced performance is the first step to constructing a sound DFS lineup. Once you have the situational advantages down, you can start thinking about which specific players/positions are most likely to benefit from those situations. The final step should be to negotiate the salary puzzle. Starting with player stats or salaries is going to pigeonhole you into making price-based decisions from the beginning. I never want to roster a player just because his salary matches the amount of cap I have left. In my next piece, I'll continue my thoughts on how to construct a lineup that balances elements of safety, value and upside as we put it all together for opening night, Oct. 27!