The race for the playoffs is heating up.
In the Eastern Conference, four to five playoff slots are still up for grabs. And despite being more top-heavy, the Western Conference playoff bracket is equally unsettled beyond the four seed. (Remember, the NBA threw out divisional title protection for playoff seeding.)
Yawn. For fantasy enthusiasts, this means something bigger is afoot.
Tanking Season!
Tanking Season: that marvelous final third of the NBA calendar. It annually arrives just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Tanking Season is where once-proud franchises trip over themselves in a mad scramble to rock bottom in the name of accruing more Ping-Pong balls. It's a sad, nihilistic roundball version of musical chairs.
Some teams were in full-bore tank mode opening night.
Philadelphia (8-58) got so good at tanking that the league had to intervene in order to level out the tanking playing field. Minnesota (19-41) has proved almost as adept at bottoming out...while also managing to offer hope via its grooming of a young, upside-ridden stable of future superstars. Phoenix (15-44) went from scrappy playoff contender to scrappy lottery team in the course of a season. Like Minnesota, they have some promising pieces and multiple first-rounders in the bank.
Then you have the Lakers.
They dabbled in tanking last season. But with their 2016 first rounder only top-3 protected, they've put their foot on the gas. At 11-49 (losers of eight straight), the only Laker drama is whether or not they pass the Sixers in their quest for league-leading futility...and locking down that top-3 pick.
Over the next couple of weeks, middle-of-the-road teams destined to land in the lottery will also begin to tank. These teams will likely shake out to include the Magic (26-32), Bucks (25-35), Kings (24-34), Pelicans (23-35) and Nuggets (23-37).
As postseason aspirations dissipate, these teams will publicly begin to "look towards next season." Which is code for "let's try to get a top-10 pick out of this dumpster fire of a campaign." Which means expanding the roles of whatever young upside happens to reside on said team's roster.
You might have noticed I've left two lottery teams out of this discussion: the Knicks (25-36) and Nets (17-43).
They're not on the list because neither team controls their first-round pick. So while they've been displaying signs of tanking behavior (buyouts), the Knicks and Nets are not part of this column.
Sorry. Don't blame me, New Yorkers. Blame your former cable provider and the closest Oligarch.
Let's take a quick trip through latest projected tankers from the somewhat mediocre to the truly futile.
Swapping Tobias Harris for Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova raised the white flag to half-mast. It's had fantasy ramifications up and down Orlando's roster. A misshapen, poorly aligned roster. But it does not lack for fantasy upside.
Jennings' arrival temporarily kneecapped whatever momentum Elfrid Payton had begun to build. But for now, Payton still appears to be the future at point guard. Payton (33 minutes on Sunday versus Philadelphia) seems to have pushed this battle beyond a timeshare.
Harris' departure boosted fantasy numbers in other areas. It's opened up a lot of touches on offense. Both Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic's numbers have raised post-Harris.
But I'm the most excited about Aaron Gordon.
Now healthy, the second-year has the potential to be a multicategorical force. The steals, blocks and rebounds are already there. All that's lacking is a reliable 3-point shot. His numbers since All-Star weekend - 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.0 3s, solid percentages, plus a solid 2.5 assists - point towards real late-season momentum.
Milwaukee should have a lot of buzz headed into next season. They're in an ideal tanking spot. They're able to give copious minutes to their talented young core. They can build for the future while driving down their ability to win at present.
The big emerging story is the Jabari Parker renaissance. In 2014, I pegged Parker as a likely fantasy/reality Rookie of the Year. Injuries delayed Parker's full arrival...by a season and a half. He may not have won Rookie of the Year, but Parker is making a staggering late push for Most Improved Player.
Parker's numbers since Valentine's Day: 22.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 3.0 assists. He's shooting 53.8 percent from the floor, and 81.5 percent from the line. Even without making a dent in 3-point production, he's posting a 58.1 true shooting percentage. Best of all, Parker is averaging a Lillard-esque 40.1 minutes per game.
Year-in, year-out, Darren Collison (14.2 points, 4.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.2 3-pointers) remains one of the most underrated guards in fantasy. But as Sacramento continues to slide, I'm hoping the Kings' front-office dysfunctionality forces more playing time upon Willie Cauley-Stein.
Cauley-Stein's numbers since the break have dipped (8.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.0 blocks). Right now, he's currently coming off the bench behind Quincy Acy. But Cauley-Stein is a solid bet for a late season boost, and should help blocks-hungry fantasy teams during the playoffs.
The Pelicans don't have a ton of depth. They lack for young upside beyond their current stars. So look for Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson to tear it up in the name of statistical padding. When healthy, Eric Gordon could join in on New Orleans' offensive uprising.
Danilo Gallinari reportedly has two torn ligaments in his ankle. If the Nuggets are smart, they'll shut him down for the duration. This should help Will Barton, Gary Harris and Kenneth Faried. It could make Darrell Arthur worthy of deep league consideration.
But the upside down the stretch could shift to two players: Emmanuel Mudiay and Nikola Jokic. Mudiay still can't shoot (30.6 from the floor since All-Star weekend), but he continues to pull down starter's minutes (29.5 MPG).
Jock is only averaging 18.4 minutes per game over the same stretch, but he's packing in more efficient production (9.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.5 3-pointers, 1.0 steals). Jokic isn't blocking shots, but he's delivering in atypical areas for a center (assists, 3s, steals).
Since they didn't trade Ricky Rubio, nothing's really changed in Minnesota. The rest of the season will be about the steady development of Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine. Gorgui Dieng's recent production (12.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks) has resembled my expectations coming into the season.
If you're looking for a less obvious name, Shabazz Muhammad (14.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.3 3-pointers) is continuing to trend up. He lacks the buzz of the rest of Minnesota's young core, but he could provide owners some waiver-wire upside going into the playoffs.
A coaching change and a trade have made Phoenix one of the most exciting tanking teams to watch.
If you can take away one thing from Super Tuesday, Mirza Teletovic and Alex Len are fantasy factors. The evidence is indisputable. Post Markieff Morris-trade, Teletovic has led the Suns with 20.0 points per game, while chipping in 7.2 rebounds and an elite 3.6 3-pointers per game.
Len has been almost as good, averaging 18.0 points and 10.8 rebounds. Why "almost?" Len lacks a solid third category (some blocks would be nice).
The rest of the Lakers' campaign will be defined by Kobe's retirement tour. But D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle have quietly and steadily been building momentum for 2016-17.
Randle (13.2 points, 11.0 rebounds since All-Star weekend) is becoming a dependable double-double player. But Russell (15.2 points, 4.8 assists) is flashing real star power. His improved 3-point production since the break (2.0 3-pointers per game at a 55.6 percent clip) is proof that Russell is beginning to tap into his full potential. (Hopefully, he'll improve his steals rate next).
The rest of Philadelphia's season is largely about seeing if Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor can produce together. But look for Robert Covington (12.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.3 3-pointers, 1.3 steals since All-Star weekend)) and Ish Smith (13.3 points, 5.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.9 3-pointers) to be underrated playoff contributors.