The trade deadline is in our rearview mirror. For most of us, that means in fantasy and reality. Save for the waiver wire, most of our rosters are effectively locked.
We're nearing the final stages of the fantasy regular season. If you're in a roto league, you're more than two-thirds of the way through the campaign. And if you're in a head-to-head league, you've got less than three weeks before the playoffs.
Should you be worried?
Worried about what to do when fantasy basketball wraps up in about seven weeks? Absolutely. Worried about your teams? Always. Worried about your stars and superstars? Maybe.
Because now that we're in the stretch run, our imaginary teams begin to fight a real, tangible factor.
One of basketball's great yearly in-season conundrums revolves around rest. Specifically? Resting high-mileage stars who are leading their teams toward extended playoff runs.
It's a fantasy paradox. The more valuable the player, the more time said player spends on the court. The more minutes a player averages and the shorter his team's rotation, the more his fantasy production expands.
But as the season progresses, the high volume of minutes that helps make an elite fantasy producer so valuable begins to take a toll.
Advanced statistics tell us that the less rest a player receives, the greater his chance of injury. Age compounds the risk, but the risk isn't limited to older players. 21-year-old Zach LaVine was averaging 37.2 minutes when he went down for the season with a torn ACL.
But I'm not here to scare you about torn ACLs. The truth is that catastrophic season-altering/ending injuries are relatively rare. The tangible threat comes from fatigue. Everyday wear and tear. The real threats are smaller, nagging injuries that pile up over the grind of an 82-game season. An elite player is more liable to play through these injuries for the simple fact that his team needs him.
For most players, heavy miles depress value. Travel, lack of rest, repetitive stress on the body, off-kilter sleep schedules ... for most players, all of these factors combine to sap statistical efficiency. It's why in betting circles we're wary of teams playing the second half of a back-to-back.
Let's take a look at two of this season's highest-mileage players ... and whether you should be concerned.
Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors
Minutes per game: 37.7 (first in NBA)
By almost every reasonable metric, Lowry is having a career-best statistical season. It's an unlikely feat, given that by age 30, most fantasy point guards have already begun to decline.
Having your injury-prone 30-year-old point guard lead the NBA in minutes would seem like a prescription for trouble. But by missing only one game to date (on forced rest), Lowry has defied his historical tendency to miss 5-10 games per season.
Despite Lowry's heavy usage, advancing age, historical injury concerns ... plus the ascendance of DeMar DeRozan? Lowry has thrived. He's gone numerically ballistic.
Lowry is posting career highs in points (22.8 PPG) and 3-pointers (3.3 3PPG). But it's not just plus-volume. Lowry's efficiency is peaking as well, evidenced by his career-high 3-point percentage (41.7 3FG%) and PER (23.00).
But despite all the red flags, Lowry's peaking was easily predictable, given one factor: Lowry is in a contract push.
Lowry can opt out this summer. All reports have him opting out. Remember what Timofey Mozgov got last summer? Lowry would be certifiable to not test the market. The contract-year status was why I made Lowry one of my most-rostered players.
So, Lowry should keep rolling right through the fantasy playoffs. Contract push plus career-best efficiency plus deep playoff aspirations equal no discernible dip ... right?
Not so fast.
Lowry is averaging 38.6 minutes per game in February. His minutes are going up. And if you look at Lowry's last stretch of games leading into All-Star weekend, the signs of wear took a bite out Lowry's production.
Over Lowry's two weeks (seven games played) before the break, Lowry dipped to 19.3 points per game on 38 percent shooting. His steals dipped to less than one per game.
Historically speaking, Lowry is a streaky shooter. He'll have hot weeks and cold weeks. But he does have a tendency to hit cold stretches in the latter stages of a campaign. He closed out 2015-16 shooting only 40 percent from the floor (combined in March and April).
Lowry is trending down. When you track his Player Rater production, it's an unavoidable conclusion. For 2017, Lowry is at 14.01 points. Over his past 30: 10.51. Past 15: 7.11. Past 7: 5.36.
Lowry is in a contract push. The struggling Raptors just made a big move for Serge Ibaka as part of a playoff push. I don't anticipate Lowry sitting for more than a game here and there.
Lowry's minutes and touches will be there. But Lowry's historical late-season drop in overall fantasy production has already arrived. I anticipate Lowry will be more a top-20 player for the duration.
LeBron James SF/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Minutes per game: 37.5 (second in NBA)
James is in his 14th season. His age 32 season. When you factor in playoff miles, LeBron is pushing the 50,000-minute barrier. And despite all that, LeBron is barely behind Lowry for the league lead in minutes per game.
The heavy minutes seemed to take a toll before All-Star weekend. LeBron and the Cavaliers posted a sub-par January. The Cavs went 7-8. They slogged through a six-game road trip that culminated in a Golden State holiday shellacking on national television.
LeBron's play dipped. The clearest statistical bellwether was his 3-point production. LeBron was abysmal, shooting only 27 percent from beyond the 3-point line.
And as we all witnessed, he didn't shy away from airing his grievances publicly. By January 31st, LeBron reverberated with midseason exhaustion.
And fantasy-wise, given his age and amount of years in the league, one could assume that LeBron is nudging ever so slightly downward in a year-to-year decline. His days of challenging for No. 1 on the Player Rater are gone -- long gone. The question going into this season was whether LeBron would stay in the fantasy top 10. (Not that the masses paid any attention: LeBron's ADP was an over-inflated 5.1.)
And don't forget that Kevin Love is out for another month. LeBron's tendency toward hero ball is going to be temporarily enabled. He's going to have lots of reasons to push back against rest.
NBA history shows us that most stars who fight to log heavier minutes tend to suffer statistically. The bump in volume is negated by a drop in efficiency.
Given all the stories, signs, trends and long-term history, LeBron is primed for a second-half dip -- because the Cavaliers aren't worried about January and February.
They're not worried about the fantasy playoffs. They're worried about May. June. That's why we've heard all the chatter about some Popovich-style enforced rest for LeBron. Every responsible basketball consideration screams "manage LeBron's minutes."
So should you be worried? Terrified, even?
Not in the slightest.
LeBron is having one of those freakish out-of-body megastar seasons, when at times of expected low-altitude ... he's elevating.
LeBron is shooting 63 percent in February. He's 20-for-33 from beyond the 3-point line. His true shooting percentage for the month is an otherworldly 71.2 percent. After asking for playmaking help, LeBron has been providing his own, averaging 10.6 assists over the same span.
Two divots: turnovers and free throws. The additional focus on playmaking has equaled a boost in LeBron's turnovers (4.3 turnovers per game for the year, 36 over his past 8 games).
The free throws have been a problem all year. Fatigue can hit players in weird metrical areas. For LeBron, it's free throw percentage. He's hitting a career low 69 percent of his attempts.
Big picture? I don't think LeBron is going to sit. Without Love, he has to play heavy minutes to hang on to the No. 1 seed. Despite all the age-related concerns ... LeBron is getting better. Over his past 15 games, LeBron has been knocking on the door of top-five fantasy production.
Come fantasy playoff time ... I can't think of many other players I'd rather ride into geeky, imaginary battle with.
Other high-mileage players
Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (37.2 MPG)
As I mentioned in my midseason comments, I'm extremely bullish on Wiggins for the stretch run. He's starting to provide stats beyond points per game. All of the elements are coming together to drive Wiggins into the top 30 from here on out.
Level of stretch run concern: Low
Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls (36.6 MPG)
Butler's team is a mess. He is shooting 39 percent over his past ten games. He's mired in trade rumors. He's injury prone.
Level of stretch run concern: High
John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (36.6 MPG)
His team is rolling. But Wall is below 40 percent shooting over his past ten games. His points per game is dropping, and his turnovers are spiking. Given Wall's history of knee issues, the Wizards can and should manage his minutes.
Level of stretch run concern: Reasonably high
James Harden, PG/SG, Houston Rockets (36.6 MPG)
Harden's shooting has dipped a notch this month, but the volume is still there. As long as you're not worried about turnovers? Move on to other areas of worry in your life.
Level of stretch run concern: Low
Players who concern me a little for the stretch run
Damian Lillard, PG/SG Portland Trail Blazers
Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks
Myles Turner, C, Indiana Pacers
Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics
Jeff Teague, PG, Indiana Pacers