As I type this, we are finding out what our partnerships are truly made of.
All of us.
Look at it this way. If you're part of a duo at present and you're still in it a year from now? You're probably winning.
We know when we are in a partnership that works. There's an innate synergy. A dynamic give and take. And an understanding that both sides have to make certain sacrifices to optimize said collaboration.
Entering this fantasy campaign, I was highly interested in several relatively new fantasy basketball partnerships. Because the notion of both combinations produced myriad fantasy questions.
All involve All-Star caliber players. Players with unique skills. Unique statistical upside.
The question: are they partnerships that produce more benefits than sacrifices? More pluses than minuses?
Let's take a look at one of these new partnerships: Devin Booker and Chris Paul.
Paul's 2019-20 bounceback campaign (17.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.1 assists) nudged him into Tim Duncan/Dirk Nowitzki status.
Yes, the megaelite seasons were likely over. But the yearly predictions of his fantasy downfall were moot. Paul had proven that given the right playing conditions, he could still statistically flourish at a relatively advanced age.
So, like with Duncan, like with Nowitzki, I am done playing the annual "inevitable steep decline" game with Paul. Until the wheels fall off, I am going to assume a reasonably ambulatory Chris Paul delivers reasonably powerful production.
Going into this season, we were presented with the fascinating notion of installing Paul into Phoenix's upside-laden lineup. But most importantly, with the notion of him forming a cross-generational partnership with fantasy wunderkind Devin Booker.
This caught my eye for one reason. In recent seasons, I had relentlessly rostered both players. Pitched them as criminally underrated in this space. Ridden their low ADPs to fantasy glory. But putting together two Alphas with overlapping fantasy strengths?
I needed to know how this would turn out. And then I compounded this need with my fresh Points-league emphasis.
Well, we're about a third of the way into the games. That's enough of a sample size to develop a fully baked hot take.
If you're in a points league? Chris Paul is just about what you thought he'd be: 16.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 1.3 3s, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, and a 57.6 TS%.
You bestowed him with a 47.1 ADP. And in points leagues, that's about the level of value managers are getting in return.
But Paul, predictably, is overdelivering in roto. Paul's efficient, percentage-tactic box scores will always give him an edge in roto leagues.
That's proven out on the roto-friendly Player Rater, where he currently ranks 26th with 10.38 Player Rater points. Meaning that, again he's giving savvy roto managers almost two full rounds of surplus production.
So, if you drafted Paul in a points league? You're content. In a roto league? You're crafty.
Now let's look at Booker... and his 27.9 ADP.
Within this duo, for me, Booker was more of the preseason mystery. After a couple of seasons of championing Booker? This preseason, I backed off.
I was unsure he'd overdeliver yet again. I was worried his secret superpower - his assist production - was going to be semi-siphoned off by Paul. And I wasn't so much worried about Booker declining in usage, so much as I worried about him not progressing in usage.
That basically, Booker would level off in a rough comp with his 2019-20 numbers but take an appreciable hit in assists.
And to date, that was a rosy prediction. Here's the current reality: 23.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.0 3s, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks and a 58.5 TS%.
Meaning about a 10% drop in points per game. And about a 50% drop in assists.
Because the real danger with Booker is that he would trend towards what I expect out of most high-scoring players. That he would trend towards empty point production. I'm not saying Booker is suddenly the Pacific Standard Time version of Lauri Markkanen. More just that his high point-per-game potential makes him susceptible to being overrated.
And I was worried that Booker would be overrated in points leagues because of the additional value our points system places on assists, and that's the exact area where Booker is getting dinged. Booker needs his assists to be top-25 in points leagues, because he's barely mediocre in the defensive counting stats.
This partnership to date? Just fine for Chris Paul. And a subtle "not good" for Devin Booker.
On the surface, Booker's numbers are perfectly acceptable. In points leagues, you're almost getting the production you counted on. He's about half a round under his ADP.
But it's not so acceptable when you factor in Booker is at the career stage where his fantasy production should be ascending year-in, year-out. Instead, it's slightly regressing.
And in roto? Booker to date has been a borderline bust. He's languishing at No. 63 on the Player Rater. "Bust" may sound severe for a player averaging 23.8 PPG. But that's why Booker offers the danger of empty points production.
On the surface, he's fine. But under the hood, without the assists, he's underdelivering in roto.
The problems the partnership with Paul poses for Booker's fantasy portfolio are easy to quantify. Just look at what Booker threw down during Phoenix's back-to-back set on Feb. 7 and 8.
During this back-to-back, Paul was hounded by a hamstring issue. He was slowed against Boston, and missed the matchup with Cleveland. Over those two nights, Booker was able to return to his old, expanded bandwidth in possession and playmaking.
The result: two vintage box scores. A combined 54 points, 12 rebounds, 19 assists, six 3s, and the still-mediocre one steal and one block. Easily Booker's best two-game sample of this fantasy season.
Then last night, Paul was back at full strength and Booker's assists disappeared again. Booker still dropped 30 points on the Bucks but with Paul running the offense, Booker dropped back down to just three assists (with zero steals and zero blocks.)
Now, new backcourt partnerships can take time. Maybe Booker figures out how to run more of the offense alongside Paul as the season progresses. But I wouldn't bank on it.
For one more piece of evidence, head on over to NBA.com's Stats page and take a look at the net ratings of Phoenix's various 5-man lineups.
Phoenix's most-used lineup (Paul-Booker-Mikal Bridges-Jae Crowder-DeAndre Ayton) features the Paul-Booker backcourt.
Its net rating: -6.1. To date, it's a losing hand.
Phoenix's best lineup swaps Booker for Cameron Johnson. The Paul-Johnson-Bridges-Crowder-Ayton lineup's net rating: +26.0. To date, it's a wildly winning hand.
(This is the Suns' third-most used lineup. So, there's a decent enough sample of minutes to back this net rating up.)
Again, on the surface, this won't be a big issue in points leagues. In a points league, you can expect Booker to roughly return that 27.9 ADP in value. But I usually project Booker to overperform his ADP. That's been his annual return.
Instead, without impact defensive counting stats, and a regression in assists in roto leagues? Booker could miss his ADP by two-to-three rounds. Best-case, Booker's roto value will end up around Donovan Mitchell's.
Which make both players roto disappointments. Big-time scorers on the outside, fourth-rounders on the inside.