Realizing what a special superstar he's become in the pros, it's amazing to look back at Kawhi Leonard's numbers from San Diego State. The Spurs' star shot just 25 percent from 3-point range while competing in the Mountain West Conference, yet was fourth in the NBA last season at 44.3 percent from beyond the arc.
However, the key reason we love Leonard as a fantasy basketball asset isn't his awesome improvement in shooting touch, but rather his amazing statistical diversity, namely his defensive exploits. Leonard is currently averaging an astounding (albeit unsustainable) five steals during his first two games.
Having led the league in steals per game in 2014-15, Leonard's current perch atop the league in larceny appears legitimate. It's also very possible his reign over the Player Rater could be sustainable if this season's surge in offensive volume continues. It's easy to forget that Leonard just turned 25 this past June and enjoyed a massive 28.4 percent leap in scoring from 2014-15 to last season. Leonard is again enjoying a steep ascent on offense both in terms of shot volume and, more significantly, from the free throw line.
As I wrote this past June, "The playoffs confirmed for me that Leonard is a surefire top-five fantasy selection for 2016-17 drafts." In fact, Leonard ended up going seventh, on average, in ESPN drafts this fall. My lofty opinion of Leonard was due to his increasing offensive workload and his team's reliance on him -- and not LaMarcus Aldridge -- as its chief creator in the postseason.
With Tim Duncan retired and significant mileage on Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, this is undoubtedly Leonard's team. For those that landed Leonard late in the first round, you just might have netted a dark horse candidate for the top overall fantasy asset this season.
After perusing the upcoming week of the NBA schedule below, be sure to check out our trendspotting notes, as we delve into a number of rising players and intriguing trends.
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Matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Ratings roundup
For those playing in weekly head-to-head leagues, maximizing games played can prove paramount to almost all other factors. Even if your opponent hoards greater overall talent, you can surpass them statistically if you can guarantee more games in your weekly profile. When it comes to streaming players, then, we should look to identify teams with busy schedules.
The Sacramento Kings, for example, lead the NBA with five games this week. It's rare to find a five-game stretch in a given slate, so this makes shares of guys like Ty Lawson, averaging more than 35 minutes as the substitute starter at point guard, and even Matt Barnes and his 27 minutes per game somewhat attractive as rentals for the week ahead.
The Atlanta Hawks enjoy a strong rating this week thanks to three home games out of four contests in total. They have inviting meetings with the likes of the fast-paced Lakers, Kings and Rockets. The Cleveland Cavaliers play just three games this week, but it's nice to see that they only play up-tempo opponents. That could extract increased exposure and output from LeBron James and his fellow stars.
As for some of the weaker profiles this week, the Brooklyn Nets face a series of capable defensive teams prone to slowing the pace. The Charlotte Hornets play just two games this coming week, making them an avoidable source for streaming given such a limited slate. Similarly, the Miami Heat are limited to two games with one coming against the down-tempo, defensive-minded Raptors.
Surging in Charlotte
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could serve as an awesome approximation of Leonard if you missed out on him in drafts. While he doesn't possess Leonard's shooting touch, it's nice to see such rich rebound and steal potential from the versatile forward after he played in just seven games last season. A gifted rebounder for his position, "MKG" enjoyed a league-high 30 rebounding chances in the season opener, which are defined as being within 3.5 feet of an available board.
With nearly 35 minutes played in the first game and available in half of ESPN leagues as of press time, Kidd-Gilchrist is a strong early waiver warrior to consider for your player portfolio. With real defensive prowess and upside in steals and even blocks, this forgotten forward could prove to be quite valuable this season.
Myles ahead
One fear for the Pacers' Myles Turner was a potential lack of minutes on an increasingly deep roster. Yet, with 37 minutes played and 19 field goal attempts in Indiana's first game, it's clear he's a priority player on the new-look roster.
Tabbed as a breakout candidate for this season, Turner led the NBA playoffs last summer with 3.3 blocks per game and a Whiteside-like block rate of 9.8 percent. Turner's per-36 rates of 16.3 points, 8.7 boards and 2.3 blocks from his rookie campaign suggest increased minutes could propel fantasy stardom for the second-year big man.
Croatian impact
I'll be writing a waiver wire column which debuts on Sunday but, as a preview, here's a widely available asset to admire early this season. It's Dario Saric of the 76ers, who could provide helpful numbers as a key rotation cog. The rookie enjoyed 20 rebounding chances in his debut thanks to his playing nearly 28 minutes.
We saw his knack for playmaking emerge for Croatia in the Olympics this past August, and he might have the steadiest minutes profile of Philadelphia's collection of big men. Even though he struggled from the field, there is upside found in his exposure rates (12 shots and the strong minutes). Saric is a name to watch in the early weeks of the season.