With the 2015-16 playoffs in the rearview mirror, it's time to take a look at the postseason and ahead to the offseason from a fantasy hoops angle. I have gathered our experts one more time to prep fantasy owners on what to watch for this summer. Our contributors are ESPN NBA Insiders Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton, plus ESPN Fantasy analysts Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick, John Cregan and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
1. What is the top fantasy takeaway from the 2015-16 playoffs that you will take into next season?
Kevin Pelton: Hassan Whiteside's ability to maintain his production with so much on the line. Whiteside's performance until his injury makes me more comfortable expecting him to be a consistent offensive contributor, in addition to averaging a double-double and providing copious blocks. Wherever Whiteside signs as a free agent, he figures to be one of the more valuable centers in 2016-17.
Bradford Doolittle: Steven Adams' play through the postseason for OKC makes him a guy to watch in the unlikely event that Durant leaves. Westbrook's numbers might become surreal in that event, but if a Westrook-Adams pick-and-roll becomes the bread-and-butter play for the Thunder, Adams' minutes and production could really soar.
Jim McCormick: This one was a bit difficult for me, as several narratives appear compelling. For example, DeMar DeRozan led the playoff field by 49 2-point field goal attempts and could feast on shots if he lands with the Lakers. In a small sample, Myles Turner's 3.3 blocks per game and stellar block rate of 9.8 percent scream breakout for 2016-17.
My main takeaway is in the superstar tier, as the aging Spurs seem ready to truly hand the team over to Kawhi Leonard, who leads the postseason PER and posted a box plus/minus behind only those of Russell Westbrook and LeBron James. We all know Leonard is special, but it's easy to forget that he turns 25 this summer and has yet to near peak production. The Spurs will need much more from him as incumbent pillars continue to erode. The playoffs confirmed for me that Leonard is a surefire top-five fantasy selection for 2016-17 drafts. I'll give him every opportunity this offseason to creep into my top three.
Joe Kaiser: Steven Adams is worthy of attention at center. Adams has always been a guy who can grab seven or eight rebounds and block a shot or two, but the series against Golden State showed newfound confidence on the offensive end. Next season, he'll be entering his fourth year in the league at the tender age of 23, and I expect him to flirt with a double-double average while blocking around 1-1.5 shots per game.
John Cregan: I avoid recasting my fantasy opinions based on playoff performance. Obviously, these are the most memorable games of the season, but we shouldn't let a small sample of games played in an altered style geared on extended matchups with opponents reshape our expectations for the upcoming regular season. That said, I thought the Trail Blazers advertised still-developing, under-the-radar value headed into 2016-17. C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard and Mason Plumlee could go for a round or two beneath their actual value. Noah Vonleh flashed some potential -- I like his upside. Then there's free agency ... an incoming big would have a big fantasy impact up and down this lineup.
Tom Carpenter: I think the biggest takeaway for me is that it looks like the Spurs can't continue to play in their old-school, methodical approach and expect to beat teams such as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors in the playoffs. I think that in order to really compete and hold their own against the league's other elite scorers, they will want to get Leonard used to taking over games offensively. Now, I don't think Gregg Popovich is going to give Leonard 25 shots per game for a full season, but even if Leonard takes 18 per game and is treated more like an impact scorer, his well-rounded fantasy game could push him all the way to the top of the Player Rater by season's end.
2. Which team should fantasy owners hope Kevin Durant joins if he leaves the Oklahoma City Thunder as a free agent?
Pelton: Unless Durant signs with the Golden State Warriors, which seems like a long shot, he's going to have all the possessions he needs anywhere he goes. The only factor that would really change his fantasy production from my perspective is the pace of the team, which would make the Boston Celtics (third in possessions per 48 minutes) ideal, compared to a team such as the San Antonio Spurs (26th). In all likelihood, though, the point is moot. It's hard to see Durant leaving Oklahoma City this summer.
Doolittle: If we're talking about a choice between the Warriors and the Spurs, I think you have to go with the Warriors because of their pace of play. On a per-possession basis, Durant will be Durant; other players' usage rates will fluctuate -- not his. As such, it's all about tempo, and the Spurs will still have slow-down possessions working LaMarcus Aldridge in the post.
McCormick: For fantasy value, Durant taking the trip to his hometown of Washington D.C. could be a big boon for raw production. The Lakers seem like an unrealistic destination for Durant, given his intent to contend, while his former coach is in place in the capital. The Eastern Conference has certainly improved, but it remains a softer path to the Finals than the West, where the Warriors and Spurs continue to loom large. John Wall would offer a ball-dominant capacity similar to Westbrook's, yet with fewer shots, while Durant would have carte blanche as the team's key offensive weapon. Durant is already sitting at No. 2 in our way-too-early ranks, and he was fourth in the NBA in points per touch (minimum 25 MPG) the past season, so upward trajectory in the rankings isn't the differentiating factor, but I could see increased offensive volume pushing him into the top spot if he heads home to feast on the East.
Kaiser: What the Lakers have in promising young talents, such as Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell, they lack in star power, and what better way to replace a legend such as Kobe Bryant than with a player such as Durant, who can immediately come in and be the go-to-guy and franchise player for the next five years? After he averaged 28.2 PPG while sharing the ball and the limelight with Russell Westbrook this season, it's fun to think about what type of numbers Durant would put up if he didn't have to share the ball as much.
Cregan: The Celtics. I'd love to see how Durant's production would shift playing in Brad Stevens' system. The Celtics as presently constructed are a little too egalitarian for my fantasy tastes: too much depth and too few players getting premium touches. Durant's arrival would shift the dynamic of the Celtics' offense and make them easier to handicap from a fantasy perspective.
Carpenter: I think the ideal team for Durant's fantasy value would be the Celtics. Not only would he be joining at team that has just one scorer who averaged more than 15.2 PPG (Isaiah Thomas) and one player who averaged more than 6.3 RPG (Jared Sullinger) the past season, but also the Celtics run a high-paced offense and don't have a genuine point guard. That combination likely would result in career highs in points, rebounds and assists for Durant.
3. Besides Durant's free agency, what is the top story you will be watching with your fantasy teams in mind this offseason?
Pelton: A possible Kevin Love trade. Although I don't think a return to the productivity Love had with the Minnesota Timberwolves is realistic at this stage of his career, Love could easily become a 20-point scorer again on a team on which he is the first or second option on offense, instead of the distant third role he occupies for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Love's assists could surge in a leading role too, so if I had Love in a keeper league, I'd be hoping for a deal.
Doolittle: This is probably proximity bias because I'm in Chicago, but I'm very curious what the Bulls will do this summer. I strongly feel that Chicago needs to split up Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. Obviously, moving either player will have a number of ripple effects on the stat sheet. If Butler stays and Rose goes, he would probably become the Bulls' primary playmaker and a consistent triple-double threat. If it's the other way around, Rose will present a dilemma: Do you take his inflated per-game numbers in the face of his injury risk?
McCormick: DeRozan is a key asset to track, as his shot- and drive-happy ways converts into fantasy production. The USC product shot his best clip from the field in six seasons, posted career-best numbers from beyond the arc and was third in free throw attempts per game the past season. Although his game arguably isn't ideal for this analytically inclined era, that won't stop needy teams such as the Lakers and Sixers from sending massive max pacts his way. Even if he stays in Toronto, we clearly have a player entering his prime in DeRozan.
Kaiser: I'll be watching where Al Horford ends up. The style of play used by the Golden State Warriors is making it more important than ever in the NBA to have a big man who can not only rebound and defend but also pass and shoot. Horford is all those things, and he stuffs the stat sheet better than most centers in the league. We are used to seeing him in Atlanta and know what to expect if he returns to the Hawks, but the 30-year-old unrestricted free agent will certainly be coveted by many teams, and where he lands will impact his fantasy value.
Cregan: The 76ers and Lakers will provide a lot of fantasy fluctuation this offseason. It's not just about the draft for these teams. Can they attract any impact free agents? What deals will the top-heavy 76ers attempt in hopes of smoothing out their frontcourt situation? They'll both be bad teams headed into 2016-17, but they'll be stacked with young players with heavy fantasy upside.
Carpenter: I'll be keeping a close eye on the Chicago Bulls, who have a lot of potential moving parts. Pau Gasol has a player option, Joakim Noah is an unrestricted free agent, and it's possible Derrick Rose or Jimmy Butler could be shipped out of town. Ideally, we see Rose, Gasol and Noah leave, so Butler, Nikola Mirotic, Bobby Portis and maybe even Doug McDermott get open shots at stuffing box scores next season.
4. Who would you rather have in a keeper league: Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns?
Pelton: Towns. Davis should be better with more offensive help and possibly better health next season, and it wouldn't surprise me if he is the better fantasy player next season. At the same time, Towns is not only younger and likely to develop more but also the more certain contributor because of Davis' injury history. There are few better keeper options than Towns at this point.
Doolittle: Towns, though I'm not going to be depressed about having either one, considering they both can and likely will be MVP candidates during their respective careers. Towns' passing ability makes the difference for me.
McCormick: I'd rather have Towns. The simple reduction focuses on durability concerns. We don't know if Towns, who just played 82 games, will endure a litany of ailments in the years to come. We do know Davis has battled a number of injury issues already in his young career. The DFS community knows this all too well, as late scratches have become common occurrences for the Brow. Even if we project the same number of games played per season over, say, the next five seasons, there is a valid argument for going with the Wolves' sensation. Let's begin with the fact that his per-36 numbers as a professional freshman were nearly identical to those of Tim Duncan, which you can see below. The only differences were that KAT hit 3-pointers and shot an elite clip from the stripe after just one year of college grooming. Davis is still an elite asset who can win leagues when healthy, but Towns appears truly generational and ideally suited to thrive in the modern NBA.
Kaiser: I'd rather keep Towns, and the reason is twofold. First, it comes down to health and durability. Davis simply hasn't shown that he is able to play anywhere close to 82 games in a season. In fact, Davis has yet to play more than 68 games in any of his first four NBA seasons. The second reason I'd choose Towns is because of what he showed as a rookie (18.3 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2 APG, 1.7 BPG, 0.7 SPG, 54.2 FG%, 81.1 FT%, 34.1 3PT%). He's three years younger than Davis, and he played in all 82 games in his first NBA season. If he managed to put up those numbers at the age of 20, I can only imagine how great he'll be next season.
Cregan: Towns, based entirely on injury concerns. Based on averages, I think Davis outperforms Towns in 2016-17, but the odds of Davis missing 10-15 games more than Towns misses are just too great.
Carpenter: Health aside, I would take Davis for his steals and blocks. Unfortunately, you can't put Davis' health aside. I suspect that on a per-game basis, the Brow will outpace Towns next season, but Towns will come out on top in totals. You have to take the safer player in KAT as an early first-round pick.
5. Would you consider taking Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first round this fall?
Pelton: Probably not. It's hard for me to see Antetokounmpo playing much better than he did the past 30 games, and he was still 11th in the player rater over that span. If the Bucks add another point guard option, that player or even more minutes for a healthy Michael Carter-Williams will cut into Antetounmpo's assist opportunities. So while Antetokounmpo might be top-20 or even top-15, I think the top 10 is a stretch.
Doolittle: Yes. He'll be on one of the three All-NBA teams next season. After the All-Star break, he averaged 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists and had a .561 true shooting percentage. The Bucks have already anointed him their full-time point forward, and he will spend his summer working on his jump shot. The Greek Freak has made the leap.
McCormick: Over the final 26 games of the 2015-16 season, which is essentially just after the All-Star break, the Greek Freak averaged a gaudy slash of 18.8 points, 8.4 boards, 7.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.9 blocks. A leap in his ball-dominance and usage percentage as he was the team's de facto point guard over that stretch buoyed these awesome, fantasy-friendly results. The draft and free agency will in part determine whether Antetokounmpo remains the team's best distributor. For this practice, I'll assume he's still the ball-dominant point forward we enjoyed in the second half of the season. That said, I'm still taking Draymond Green, Paul George and John Wall over him for next season, which likely puts him atop the crop in the second round. This isn't a slight to Antetokounmpo's stock, but I'd rather invest in his higher-floor ADP peers. For those chasing high ceilings on the turn in snake drafts, shares of the Freak are indeed palatable.
Kaiser: I definitely would consider taking Antetokounmpo in the first round. He has made major improvement in each of his first three years in the NBA, filling virtually every fantasy category except 3-point shooting, and I expect him to make another leap forward as he enters year four at the age of 21. I wouldn't be surprised if he adds the 3-pointer to his game this season, and there is increasing talk of his playing the role of point guard at times in 2016-17, which would mean good things for his assist numbers.
Cregan: Definitely. Besides Towns, no other potential first-rounder has a greater chance of taking a quantum numerical leap. You'd be gambling on upside over players with more reliable histories, but I'd start thinking Greek Freak in the 8-10 range.
Tom Carpenter: Well, I put him at No. 10 in my way-too-early rankings, so obviously, I think he is in the mix. In fact, I could see myself going bold in some drafts and taking him at No. 7 behind Curry, Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Towns and Leonard. His upside is unbelievable.