Is it ever too early to look ahead to next season? According to the title of this piece, perhaps. Maybe even if you consider that the 2015-16 playoffs just started and we are a good six months away from the tipoff of the 2016-17 campaign.
But you know who wins their fantasy leagues? People who are already obsessing about next season's draft.
With that in mind, I offer up my way-too-early 2016-17 fantasy basketball rankings, based on season-long rotisserie formats. Just as I did during the season, I look at the top 130 players.
I haven't included any future rookies, because their fantasy worth will depend greatly on which teams draft them. I also did not project any offseason moves, outside of obvious ones like the impact Kobe Bryant retiring might have on Los Angeles Lakers players.
As always, I value your feedback, so feel free to hit me up @AtomicHarpua.
Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are pretty well set in stone, though you can debate the ordering of two through four.
At No. 5, I have Karl-Anthony Towns, and I don't think that is a bold statement at all.
Compare KAT's rookie stats with the numbers Anthony Davis posted in his first pro season, and you'll see that Towns outpaced the Brow by a healthy margin. Then consider that Towns played 82 games as a rookie -- so he shouldn't bring the same injury risks we see from the likes of Davis, Kawhi Leonard, DeMarcus Cousins or Hassan Whiteside -- and he is more likely than Leonard or LeBron James to be leaned on enough to ascend to the top of the rankings next season.
Of course, if Davis manages to actually stay healthy in his fifth season, he could be an epic steal at No. 7. We saw that same trajectory from Curry, who battled ankle injuries early in his career before staying healthy and busting loose in his fourth campaign. The bottom line is that Davis is going to be a game-changer one way or another next season, because someone in your league is going to end up investing a first-round pick on him.
Getting back to Leonard: It's important to keep in mind that this was the first season in which he topped 66 games played (72), so he has his own injury/rest issues to consider. His across-the-board numbers are fantastic, and we can only dream about what he could do in a higher-usage role on a fast-paced team like the Golden State Warriors -- but what a beautiful fantasy that is.
James no longer is a top-five fantasy basketball player. In fact, based on per-game averages, he came in at No. 7 on the Player Rater this season. He remains capable of production impact numbers that are entirely worth taking him at about that spot next season (I have him at No. 8). However, he is pushing further into his early 30s, is a detriment at shooting free throws and doesn't carry the same upside as those ranked above him. Basically, he is a safe but boring mid-first-round pick.
You could make a case for taking Cousins ahead of James, because of his untapped potential. However, the Sacramento Kings haven't found a coach who has proved capable of getting the best from Boogie across the board for a full season. He hasn't topped 71 games over his past three campaigns and continues to disappoint in percentages. He will be just 26 next season and will have yet another coach, so there is at least some hope that 2016-17 will be the campaign during which he puts it all together.
The fun-yet-risky ones at the turn are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Whiteside. Greek-freaky across-the-board numbers from Antetokounmpo and block production from Whiteside that can basically single-handedly win you a category in roto leagues are the things that get fantasy junkies all giddy. There is risk in drafting either this high, though.
Antetokounmpo won't even turn 22 until December and has yet to churn out those eye-popping numbers for a full season. Whiteside has shown issues with immaturity and has dealt with injuries during his brief NBA career, and the key to his overall standing in fantasy will be his role on offense, which will be impacted greatly by his free agency.
Nonetheless, as things stand right now, both players should be in the mix at the turn, along with Draymond Green.
There is an amazing depth of talent right now in the top couple of rounds, as you will be able get impact stat-stuffers even late in the second round. A couple of players I dropped down substantially from where they finished this season are Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry, both of whom finished in the top 10. CP3 has had injury issues in the past and will be 31 next season, plus he benefited statistically this season from Blake Griffin's extended absence. As for Lowry, I broke down my concerns for regression in my season-ending Starting Five. Both could well prove me wrong and become steals as second-rounders.
In that same piece, I also pegged Victor Oladipo as a player I expect to break out next season, thus his positioning at No. 22 in my 2016-17 rankings.
Pro sophomores are always intriguing in fantasy, because they have a season of experience under their belts and often get increased roles in Season 2. KAT is in his own class. Kristaps Porzingis comes in at No. 45, D'Angelo Russell (sans Kobe) at No. 54, Jahlil Okafor at No. 61, Julius Randle (essentially a sophomore) at No. 65, Devin Booker at 72, Emmanuel Mudiay at No. 80, Myles Turner at No. 96, Willie Cauley-Stein at No. 98, Nikola Jokic at No. 101 and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at No. 114.
During the offseason, we will closely watch the big-name free agents (and potential free agents) who might be on the move, like Durant, DeMar DeRozan, Pau Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Whiteside, Rajon Rondo and Nicolas Batum. Where those players land could have a big impact on their production and those around them.
However, fantasy owners will also want to keep a close eye on what goes down with the rosters of bad teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and the Lakers, because there are glaring holes in their rosters. Those holes offer opportunities for a free agent or rookie to come in and make a big splash next season. How those franchises handle the draft and free agency this summer will play a big role in the fantasy output of their players.