By this point in the NBA campaign, every team has played at least 16 games and most are nearing 20 entering the weekend of Dec. 2. This means we're at least 20 percent of the way into the campaign. While the sample isn't exactly large, it's significant enough for us to take stock of the differences in advanced production for teams from last season to this.
In an effort to survey the significant shifts from last season to this current campaign, we've investigated the most meaningful changes in pace and offensive efficiency. The table below reveals the 10 greatest leaps in offensive rating, which measures points per 100 possessions, from last season to now.
As ESPN fantasy hoops analyst John Cregan deftly details, the Lakers have become a fantasy gold mine, as they've enjoyed the biggest leap in offensive efficiency this season and rank 10th in effective field goal percentage, ninth in true shooting percentage, fourth in pace, seventh in assists, 10th in 3-pointers and fifth in steals. The Raptors are enjoying DeMar DeRozan's epic and efficient scoring breakout, while the Rockets' transition into Mike D'Antoni's fantasy-friendly scheme is proving successful. We can identify profitable fantasy draft picks on every one of these rosters.
The 10 teams below have enjoyed the largest surges in pace, which measures the amount of possessions per 48 minutes. Pace is an essential ingredient for fantasy basketball, particularly when seeking differentiation in lineup decisions and in daily fantasy.
It's not surprising to find several key rising assets on Brooklyn this season, as Sean Kilpatrick -- available in more than half of ESPN leagues as of Friday morning -- and Trevor Booker -- tied for third in steals per game -- have proven immensely valuable for fantasy investors. The Nets are also an inviting matchup for opponents, as they've ceded the second-most points per 100 possessions (108.9), behind only the Blazers' league-worst rate of 110.4.
The Cavs' uptick in pace is also compelling, as it has accommodated a 36 percent jump in scoring production from Kevin Love since last season, and a 25 percent increase in scoring for Kyrie Irving.
Fantasy Forecaster: Dec. 5-11
Access the downloadable forecaster chart PDF here
Matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Ratings roundup
As if the Warriors' historically efficient offense needed any help, they claim the rare five-game week and are thus positioned with the lone perfect rating of the week.
Even as the Clippers are the only team limited to just two games this coming week, NBA junkies can't wait for their pivotal matchup against the Warriors on Wednesday night. Both teams rank in the top five in offensive rating and the top eight in defensive rating.
The Bucks enjoy a strong week as well, with matchups against up-tempo teams like the Blazers and Hawks.
South Philly splits
The 76ers' glut of big men will eventually become a unique issue once Nerlens Noel returns to the lineup. It is possible Noel can pair well with Joel Embiid, while it's somewhat clear the team doesn't believe Jahlil Okafor and Embiid are a reasonable pairing, as they've played just two minutes together on the court so far.
The key takeaway for this frontcourt -- besides the fact Embiid's per-36-minute numbers are ridiculously awesome -- is that with Embiid on the floor, the 76ers have allowed a defensive rating of just 98.5, which would rate second-best in the league based on current allowance rates. With Okafor on the court, Philly has a defensive rating of 108.9, which would tie for the second-worst in the NBA with a full sample.
When Embiid is sidelined and Okafor is the leading big, the 76ers are an ideal matchup for streaming and DFS plays. When Embiid is starting, his rare defensive prowess is notable, especially as his minutes restriction has reportedly loosened to 28 minutes per game.
Defensive real plus-minus
Pursuing point guard matchups with the Trail Blazers and Suns could prove rewarding this season, as Damian Lillard ranks 81st out of 83 eligible point guards in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus rate, while Brandon Knight of Phoenix comes in last in the index. This advanced metric isn't perfect, but it does reveal plus matchup metrics, given that the premise estimates the on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions.
Small forwards have feasted against the Dallas Mavericks, as Hoop Stats indicates they claim the second-worst defensive rating facing the position and DRPM records Harrison Barnes 72nd out of 80 eligible players at the position. Given the aforementioned defensive data on Okafor, it's not surprising to see him ranked in the bottom tier at the position in defensive plus-minus. The Nets also appear generous to opposing fives, as they rank 23rd in defensive rating against the position thanks to Brook Lopez rated fifth-worst in DRPM at the position.