Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 177 188 11 9 73 777 4 2. Chris Olave , NO 163 148 -14 10 60 742 5 3. Davante Adams , LAR 158 153 -5 9 42 652 8 4. Justin Jefferson , MIN 153 132 -21 9 51 702 5 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 148 182 34 9 54 614 5 6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 144 197 53 9 52 752 2 7. Drake London , ATL 143 158 15 8 50 644 5 8. Troy Franklin , DEN 142 119 -23 10 44 637 5 9. George Pickens , DAL 137 161 25 9 42 592 6 10. Emeka Egbuka , TB 137 147 10 9 43 663 4 11. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 136 120 -16 10 45 656 4 12. Rome Odunze , CHI 134 129 -5 9 43 617 5 13. Puka Nacua , LAR 134 179 45 8 55 609 2 14. Ladd McConkey , LAC 134 138 4 10 51 619 4 15. Keenan Allen , LAC 131 130 -1 10 49 567 4 16. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 128 125 -2 10 55 599 2 17. Nico Collins , HOU 127 114 -14 8 39 589 5 18. Courtland Sutton , DEN 121 126 5 10 39 579 4 19. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 117 150 33 10 49 531 3 20. Rashid Shaheed , NO 113 104 -9 9 42 538 3 20. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 3 3 0 1 1 5 0 21. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 114 143 29 10 41 555 3 22. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 114 113 -1 9 35 510 5 23. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 113 121 8 9 43 424 3 24. Quentin Johnston , LAC 112 122 10 9 35 505 4 25. Zay Flowers , BAL 108 119 11 9 47 505 1 26. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 107 68 -39 9 36 534 3 27. Romeo Doubs , GB 105 106 1 9 31 501 4 28. Stefon Diggs , NE 105 123 18 10 41 472 3 29. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 105 86 -19 8 37 513 2 30. DeVonta Smith , PHI 102 132 29 9 38 497 2 31. DK Metcalf , PIT 97 112 16 9 32 414 4 32. Tee Higgins , CIN 94 118 24 9 26 475 3 33. Khalil Shakir , BUF 93 109 17 9 45 396 1 34. Hollywood Brown , KC 92 97 5 9 34 407 3 35. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 91 90 -1 6 32 457 2 36. Parker Washington , JAC 91 86 -5 9 29 444 2 37. Alec Pierce , IND 90 93 2 8 23 545 2 38. DJ Moore , CHI 90 90 0 9 31 366 2 39. Jauan Jennings , SF 89 78 -11 8 30 407 3 40. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 89 70 -19 9 31 451 2 41. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 88 100 11 7 37 435 1 42. Jordan Addison , MIN 88 79 -9 6 27 394 4 43. A.J. Brown , PHI 85 90 5 8 29 446 2 44. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 4 7 3 1 2 22 0 44. Jakobi Meyers , LV 80 68 -12 7 33 357 2 45. Tre Tucker , LV 83 107 24 9 33 344 2 46. Malik Washington , MIA 82 73 -9 10 32 279 2 47. Keon Coleman , BUF 81 81 0 9 29 392 2 48. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 80 65 -15 9 37 337 1 49. Jameson Williams , DET 79 99 20 9 28 409 1 50. Josh Downs , IND 77 84 6 9 33 325 2 51. Xavier Worthy , KC 76 63 -13 7 26 332 2 52. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 53. Dyami Brown , JAC 73 50 -24 8 21 307 3 54. Jalen Nailor , MIN 72 65 -7 9 18 296 4 55. Xavier Legette , CAR 70 50 -20 8 23 282 3 56. Kendrick Bourne , SF 69 79 11 9 30 340 1 57. Sterling Shepard , TB 68 65 -3 9 27 291 2 58. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 59. Tyquan Thornton , KC 66 63 -3 9 13 353 3 60. Chimere Dike , TEN 65 54 -11 9 22 245 1 61. Calvin Austin III , PIT 65 57 -8 7 24 300 2 62. Michael Wilson , ARI 64 51 -13 9 23 296 2 63. Kayshon Boutte , NE 63 96 33 9 16 309 3 64. Darnell Mooney , ATL 61 32 -29 7 21 332 1 65. Darius Slayton , NYG 60 55 -5 8 22 304 1 66. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 59 61 2 8 21 251 1 67. DeMario Douglas , NE 58 68 10 10 20 230 2 68. Mack Hollins , NE 58 71 13 10 21 262 2 69. Tez Johnson , TB 57 69 12 8 21 254 2 70. Isaiah Bond , CLE 57 24 -33 8 18 263 2 71. Rashee Rice , KC 56 67 11 3 20 182 2 72. Matthew Golden , GB 56 54 -2 8 20 240 1 73. Calvin Ridley , TEN 56 45 -11 6 21 306 1 74. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 55 47 -9 9 19 253 2 75. Rashod Bateman , BAL 55 49 -6 9 18 261 2 76. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 55 60 5 9 24 218 2 77. Jayden Higgins , HOU 54 57 3 9 18 234 2 78. Jaylin Lane , WAS 54 41 -13 10 18 268 1 79. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 53 62 8 9 20 215 2 80. Cooper Kupp , SEA 51 67 16 8 21 251 1 81. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 82. Mike Evans , TB 49 34 -15 4 14 274 1 83. Tory Horton , SEA 48 65 17 8 13 195 3 84. Ricky Pearsall , SF 47 52 6 4 14 264 1 85. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 86. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 44 34 -10 7 16 234 1 87. Jaylin Noel , HOU 44 44 0 9 16 189 1 88. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 42 39 -3 9 13 191 2 89. Van Jefferson , TEN 42 31 -11 9 16 218 1 90. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 42 42 0 7 15 158 1 91. Cedric Tillman , CLE 41 37 -5 5 14 188 1 92. Tyler Lockett , LV 12 9 -2 2 5 41 0 92. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 93. Christian Kirk , HOU 41 29 -12 5 17 203 1 94. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 41 44 4 9 15 169 1 95. Brandin Cooks , NO 40 36 -4 10 17 194 1 96. Pat Bryant , DEN 36 31 -5 10 13 162 1 97. Greg Dortch , ARI 36 36 0 9 14 94 1 98. Terry McLaurin , WAS 36 39 4 4 11 189 1 99. Demarcus Robinson , SF 35 27 -8 7 12 187 1 100. Luther Burden III , CHI 34 45 11 8 15 143 0 101. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 102. Joshua Palmer , BUF 33 37 4 6 11 181 1 103. Zay Jones , ARI 31 30 -1 8 10 164 1 104. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 31 16 -15 8 8 203 0 105. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 31 51 21 9 9 147 1 106. Tre Harris , LAC 31 34 3 10 13 135 1 107. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 30 45 14 9 8 163 1 108. Jordan Whittington , LAR 30 25 -4 9 13 116 0 109. Chris Moore , WAS 30 31 2 9 9 143 1 110. Kalif Raymond , DET 28 32 4 9 14 120 0 111. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 28 35 7 8 10 142 1 112. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 27 20 -7 10 14 126 0 113. Elijah Moore , BUF 27 28 1 8 8 110 0 114. Adonai Mitchell , IND 26 22 -4 8 10 146 0 115. Roman Wilson , PIT 26 36 10 9 11 121 0 116. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 116. Ray-Ray McCloud III , NYG 2 2 -1 2 1 16 0 117. Jahan Dotson , PHI 24 29 5 9 8 135 0 118. Devaughn Vele , NO 24 17 -6 9 7 107 1 119. Adam Thielen , MIN 23 15 -8 9 9 115 0 120. Allen Lazard , NYJ 23 18 -6 6 6 78 2 121. Christian Watson , GB 23 27 4 3 6 144 0 122. Casey Washington , ATL 23 15 -7 6 7 139 0 123. Chris Godwin , TB 23 11 -11 2 8 117 1 124. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 22 17 -5 6 6 76 0 125. Savion Williams , GB 21 20 -1 9 8 47 0 126. Jamari Thrash , CLE 20 21 0 9 10 102 0 127. Arian Smith , NYJ 20 11 -9 9 7 94 0 128. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 3 5 92 1 129. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 19 22 3 9 8 100 0 130. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 18 15 -3 9 8 95 0 131. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 18 5 -13 6 5 105 0 132. Tutu Atwell , LAR 17 26 10 6 5 92 0 133. Jack Bech , LV 17 14 -2 9 6 78 0 134. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 16 23 6 9 2 61 1 135. Ashton Dulin , IND 16 14 -1 9 4 65 0 136. Jalen Coker , CAR 15 14 -2 4 7 80 0 137. Xavier Smith , LAR 14 14 -1 9 6 72 0 138. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 14 6 -8 8 5 72 0 139. Kyle Williams , NE 14 18 4 10 4 78 0 140. Robbie Chosen , WAS 13 10 -3 2 4 69 0 141. Beaux Collins , NYG 13 5 -8 9 3 53 1 142. Noah Brown , WAS 12 7 -6 2 4 61 0 143. Kameron Johnson , TB 12 18 5 9 4 53 0 144. Tylan Wallace , BAL 12 15 2 9 3 41 1 145. David Sills V , ATL 12 5 -7 9 5 64 0 146. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 12 8 -4 9 4 67 0 147. Curtis Samuel , BUF 12 17 5 5 4 51 0 148. Skyy Moore , SF 12 11 -1 10 4 62 0 149. Tim Patrick , JAC 11 16 5 8 4 48 1 150. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 151. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 11 14 3 9 2 53 1 152. Braxton Berrios , HOU 11 10 -1 4 5 51 0 153. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 11 9 -1 10 1 27 1 154. Jayden Reed , GB 10 14 3 2 3 47 0 155. Devontez Walker , BAL 10 21 11 5 1 29 1 156. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 10 9 0 9 3 37 0 157. Malik Heath , GB 9 15 5 9 4 45 0 158. Devin Duvernay , CHI 9 1 -8 9 1 26 1 159. Ryan Miller , TB 8 11 3 9 2 41 0 160. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 8 14 6 7 4 28 0 161. Austin Trammell , JAC 8 5 -3 2 2 40 0 162. Gage Larvadain , CLE 8 5 -3 5 3 36 0 163. John Metchie III , NYJ 2 1 -1 1 1 5 0 163. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 7 4 19 0 164. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 7 1 -6 6 2 39 0 165. Ben Skowronek , PIT 7 12 5 9 2 21 0 166. Justin Watson , HOU 7 6 -1 2 2 27 0 167. Trent Sherfield , DEN 7 5 -2 10 3 30 0 168. Malachi Corley , CLE 7 11 4 5 3 15 0 169. Treylon Burks , WAS 6 11 5 2 2 36 0 170. Mason Tipton , NO 5 0 -5 9 1 19 0 171. Jordan Watkins , SF 4 5 0 3 2 27 0 172. Tahj Washington , MIA 4 0 -4 3 1 27 0 173. Dareke Young , SEA 4 7 3 6 1 24 0 174. Scotty Miller , PIT 3 2 -2 6 1 12 0 175. Jason Brownlee , KC 3 0 -3 5 0 7 0 176. Cody White , SEA 3 13 10 3 1 18 0 177. Derius Davis , LAC 3 0 -3 7 1 4 0 178. Tay Martin , WAS 3 4 1 3 2 15 0
