Sometimes on draft day, news breaks that forces you to think on your toes. This was certainly the case for the owners in our latest mock draft.
An hour before our start time, we received official word of Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension, as well as the trades of Sammy Watkins (to the Los Angeles Rams) and Jordan Matthews (to the Buffalo Bills). Quite an eventful day, one that made each of us reassess our draft boards on the fly.
For our fifth mock draft of this preseason, our ESPN fantasy football crew on this day -- comprised of fantasy writers and editors and NFL Nation writers -- went with a 12-team, non-PPR setup.
A couple of weeks earlier, our analysts took part in a 12-team PPR draft, so it's worth comparing to see the many differences between the two drafts due to the difference in scoring setup -- it's always important to note those players whose values rise or fall when not using a point-per-reception system -- as well as any news that has come about since then.
The participants for this mock, in order of draft position, were Eric Karabell, Jordan Raanan, Leo Howell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Dan Graziano, Mike Triplett, Keith Lipscomb, Michael Rothstein, Field Yates, Matt Bowen, KC Joyner and Jim McCormick.
You can see where Elliott, McFadden, Watkins and Matthews went below, but here are quick takeaways on them, as it relates to this mock:
• Elliott, who had been the third overall selection on average in ESPN live drafts (tied with Antonio Brown with an ADP of 3.9), fell to 28th overall to Cockcroft in this one. That may seem early to some, because of the fact that you'll have to stash him on your bench for more than a month, but Tristan offered this reasoned take on why he's well worth it at this point, including the possibility of his suspension being reduced:
"I can't tell you how many times I've had a draft within hours of breaking news. ... In instances like this, guesswork generally drives. For suspended players, I like to go with the old rule of thumb of 'player's new projected seasonal total plus X games of replacement-level performance.' So in this example, Elliott's six missed games drops his ESPN projection from 306.1 to 191.3, and in a 12-team non-PPR league, my historical estimates have a replacement-level player earning somewhere in the 6-8-point range per game. By the way, if you go with the value based drafting (VBD) angled replacement method of 31st-best player, that'd be a 10-point average, but I think seven is more realistic (meaning 42 total points from the replacement). That would result in a 233.3-point season for Elliott plus his replacement, which would put him right at the back end of the RB1 class, and in this mock he was the 13th player at the position off the board. The third round feels right, and I have no problem going with a piece-it-together strategy in his absence considering the strength of my quarterback and wide receivers. Plus, let's not discount the possibility of either an appeal delaying Elliott's suspension taking immediate effect, or shortening it."
• Watkins' value decreased slightly, maybe because of less confidence in his new quarterback, Jared Goff, as his ADP was 40.9 entering the draft, but he was selected 44th by Graziano, who had this to say about drafting the Rams' new No. 1 wideout:
"Wide receiver seemed deep at that point, and the two RBs I'd taken seemed kind of dull (Lamar Miller and Isaiah Crowell). I like Miller and Crowell, but not real high ceilings. I wanted a WR there and the other options were Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson types. I felt like Watkins has superstar potential if healthy, and would give me two No. 1 WRs when he plays. I figured I could easily get WR2 insurance later, and did so with Emmanuel Sanders. I have spoken with a few sources this summer who are high on Watkins' health. It's a flier, but one with big upside. The Rams' WR depth chart doesn't throw a lot of roadblocks in his path."
• Matthews' move to the Bills was viewed as a positive in this mock, considering his role with the Eagles was in question. Yates selected Matthews 88th overall, nearly 40 spots higher than his ADP entering the draft (115.8). Since the No. 1 WR role is clearly up for grabs in Buffalo, and only rookie Zay Jones and veteran Anquan Boldin stand in the way, it was well worth it for Field to take a shot on Matthews, who will serve as a WR5 for his team. Of course, Matthews suffered a chip fracture in his sternum in his first practice with the Bills on Sunday -- after this mock draft was conducted -- and is "week to week," according to NFL Nation Bills reporter Mike Rodak.
• Lastly, McFadden was taken by yours truly just two picks after Matthews in Round 8. This was all about the quality of the Cowboys' offensive line and the fact that I don't expect Run-DMC to be forced to split the workload much for the first six games of the season. At that point in the draft, I didn't think there was any other back available who was guaranteed to get six full games as the featured option (assuming good health, of course). I couldn't pass up the opportunity.
Note: This draft took place before the Jordan Matthews sternum injury and before Marqise Lee left Sunday's practice with a right leg injury. There was no official word on the severity of Lee's injury at the time of this story being published.
