With the first quarter of the NHL season in the books, it's time to take stock of the blue-liners making waves early on. But here's the real question: Are these strong starts sustainable, or are we looking at players who might fade into the background as the grind of the season kicks in?
In 2023-24, only 10 defenders who appeared among the top 24 in fantasy points for the first quarter of the season were also among the top 24 performers for the final quarter. That's it. Just 10 of the best 24 managed to sustain their relative rate for both bookends of the season. And it's not a fluke. Across the past six seasons the number of defenders to be great at the start and great at the end are: 10, 12, 12, 12, 10 and six.
The blue-liners don't get much more consistent when you tighten the focus. If we look at top-12 starts and top-12 finishes, we get the same player in both groups six times last season, seven the year prior and six the season before that.
Jump ahead: Goalies | Power play | Droppables
That's a lot of fluctuation and it makes it hard to trust some of these players, but many who shift across these arbitrary lines in the sand only do so by a matter of inches. So what if Noah Dobson finished last season like a lamb, ranking outside the top 40 defenders for the final quarter; he was fifth overall and got you to the end to be competitive.
What you actually want to avoid are the extreme swings the other way, and there are some every season.
Filip Hronek was ninth among defenders after the first quarter last season, but closed the season ranked 122nd among his peers down the stretch.
In 2022-23, it was Ivan Provorov putting up top-12 stats at the start, but limping toward the finish line. (Dobson did the same that season, which is a concerning coincidence, we hope.)
In 2021-22, Mario Ferraro did the disappearing act, ranking third among defenders in the first quarter but closing out with barely 1.3 fantasy points per game in the final quarter. (Oh, hey, there's Dobson again in this season ranking 87th in the first quarter and fifth in the fourth quarter; Dobson seems to be the definition of streaky.)
That means that if we look at the current top 12 defenders, there is at least one player, possibly two, that history suggests won't even be roster-worthy once we get to March. That can be a tough pill to swallow, but if you look closer, there are candidates that jump out at you.
Neal Pionk of the Winnipeg Jets stands out. He ranks ninth in fantasy scoring at the moment, but isn't even on his own team's top power-play unit. The second unit of the Jets had a strong start and has helped spike Pionk's totals with nine extra fantasy points. But is he likely to tumble like some of the aforementioned seasons? The Jets are great, he has his physical engine going with hits and blocks, it's tough to foresee such a wild value swing.
I really like Travis Sanheim because he is a reliable shot blocker, but eighth overall among D is a little on the overachieving side. So I expect a slip, but not an enormous one.
I keep coming back to Rasmus Andersson as my top value-drop candidate. He's fifth among all defensemen for fantasy points, one spot behind his teammate MacKenzie Weegar. But Andersson doesn't throw hits and isn't on the top power-play unit. These points are being generated through a rate of blocked shots that is out of line with his profile. For his career before this season, Andersson posted 4.3 blocked shots per 60 minutes. This season, he's blocking 7.32 per 60 minutes.
I might try to sell high on all three of these players, but I'd be especially aggressive with Andersson.
This statistical deep dive ended with a very specific example, but the idea is to constantly evaluate trends and look for anomalies. Fantasy hockey is as much about spotting patterns as it is about knowing when to act on them. By identifying players with unsustainable rates or those benefiting from unusual circumstances, you can stay ahead of the inevitable regression and avoid being caught off guard when the dynamic shifts.
The numbers tell a story - but only if you're willing to read between the lines. Whether you're selling high on a player like Andersson or holding steady with a hard worker like Sanheim, the key is staying proactive, not reactive.
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Goalie notes
Check out some of the top performers in fantasy NHL from Monday, including Jacob Markstrom and Jack Hughes.
Carolina Hurricanes in 24 games (five last week):
Pyotr Kochetkov (crease share season/week: 53.5%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 36.0/DNP, 60.6% available)
Spencer Martin (crease share season/week: 29.0%/96.5%, fantasy points season/week: -8.4/-9.8, 98.5% available)
Frederik Andersen (crease share season/week: 16.9%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 19.0/DNP, 42.1% available)
Yaniv Perets (crease share season/week: 0.6%/3.5%, fantasy points season/week: -0.8/-0.8, 99.9% available)
The crease has been ugly with just Martin and Perets, but Kochetkov has been back at practice and may even be in the crease Tuesday. If not then, soon. As a reminder, Kochetkov has runway until at least mid-February to have massive crease share for an elite club. In other words, lock him into rosters.
Colorado Avalanche in 25 games (five last week):
Alexandar Georgiev (crease share season/week: 58.6%/87.5%, fantasy points season/week: -0.8/-2.2, 34.5% available)
Scott Wedgewood (crease share season/week: 17.4% with Nashville, fantasy points season/week: -4.0/3.0, 97.8% available)
Wedgewood is expected to make his debut on Tuesday. Georgiev just hasn't been able to find his form and keep key pucks out of the Avs net. Wedgewood has had a journeyman's career to date, but with the middling performances in the net for Colorado so far, all bets are off. A goaltender that gives them a chance to win 3-2 or 4-3 is all the Avalanche need right now, and Wedgewood could push for split of duties in the short term with a strong opening performance.
Detroit Red Wings in 24 games (five last week):
Cam Talbot (crease share season/week: 56.5%/60.2%, fantasy points season/week: 34.2/0.0, 38.5% available)
Alex Lyon (crease share season/week: 35.0%/24.5%, fantasy points season/week: 20.0/5.4, 94.5% available)
Ville Husso (crease share season/week: 8.5%/15.3%, fantasy points season/week: -10.0/-2.0, 98.6% available)
They are dropping like flies in Detroit. Lyon remains out and Talbot has now joined him on the sidelines. Sebastian Cossa was called up for Tuesday's contest, but Jack Campbell might be an option if these injuries drag out. Husso has not been the answer but, as you can tell from Talbot's and Lyon's fantasy totals, there is value here that only requires competency to tap. Both the injuries are listed as "lower body," which is never good for goaltenders. For what it's worth, Cossa is on the short list to be a crease contender in 2025-26 given his trajectory, so this is a tad early. But he's been great this season in the AHL.
Los Angeles Kings in 25 games (five last week):
David Rittich (crease share season/week: 55.0%/75.6%, fantasy points season/week: 21.8/-2.2, 92.4% available)
Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 39.2%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 16.4/DNP, 86.5% available)
Erik Portillo (crease share season/week: 3.9%/24.4%, fantasy points season/week: 7.6/7.6, 99.9% available)
Pheonix Copley (crease share season/week: 1.8%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -2.0/DNP, 99.9% available)
Kuemper's status keeps getting strung along day-by-day, while Rittich has mercurial results. Portillo had a fantastic debut but becomes truly interesting for fantasy this season only if Kuemper's timeline is confirmed to be longer than anticipated.
St. Louis Blues in 25 games (three last week):
Jordan Binnington (crease share season/week: 74.0%/66.6%, fantasy points season/week: 20.8/13.8, 45.9% available)
Joel Hofer (crease share season/week: 26.1%/33.4%, fantasy points season/week: 14.2/5.4, 95.8% available)
With 13.4 of his 20.8 fantasy points on the season coming in one magical game against the Devils last week, we aren't quite on side with renewed optimism for Binnington with the coaching change. We need to see the Blues give him goal support before the upside meter starts pinging again here.
Power-play notes
Lane Hutson, D, Montreal Canadiens (available in 64.2% of ESPN leagues): The Habs power play has been better with Hutson instead of Mike Matheson. The guard hasn't changed fully yet, but it might soon. This past week, Hutson spent more time with the top unit and generated a much better shot attempts rate with them. Of course, we need this dangerous power play to start scoring again for this to matter. Patrik Laine is back soon, you say?
Brandt Clarke, D, Los Angeles Kings (21.2%): Drew Doughty is now reportedly eyeing early January -- not early December -- for a return. This buys Clarke another month as the power-play QB. He's currently tied with Moritz Seider for 14th among defenders for fantasy points.
Mackie Samoskevich, LW, Florida Panthers (99.7%): As the Panthers power play found its footing again, Samoskevich found himself in the middle of the action. He was on the ice for three of the Cats' six power-play goals across the past three games, including staying on the ice with the first unit for both wins against the Hurricanes. Was that matchup-specific, or are we going to see more of him on special teams?
Ryan Donato, RW, Chicago Blackhawks (88.1%): The composition of the first unit has been crystalizing. Donato is a part of it with Connor Bedard and has been in on both goals by the group across the past three games.
Michael Rasmussen, C, Detroit Red Wings (98.8%): Filling in for Patrick Kane on the top unit, Rasmussen has been a successful addition. Even if Kane comes back soon, there is a chance the Red Wings keep him here.
Corey Perry, RW, Edmonton Oilers (99.6%): Zach Hyman could be back as early as Tuesday evening, but it's worth filing away the fact that Perry was a more-than-adequate replacement on the top unit. Though he didn't quite pick up enough fantasy points for his own benefit, he kept the engine running for others.
Philip Tomasino, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (99.6%): I suspect it was very situational and one great game, but it's fun to look at the week and see the Penguins top unit with 1.25 shot attempts per two minutes and zero goals across 7:56 of PP time, while the second unit had 6.58 shot attempts per two minutes and three goals in 5:10.
Droppables
No one we haven't already discussed here is jumping off the page this week, but I'm serving notice to three players who might get highlighted here next week if they don't pick up the pace: Casey Mittelstadt, C, Colorado Avalanche; Jonathan Marchessault, RW, Nashville Predators; and JJ Peterka, RW, Buffalo Sabres.