Introducing the ESPN 2020 NFL Draft Challenge!
What is it? It's a brand-new, free-to-play game in which you answer a series of questions related to the upcoming NFL draft, which kicks off on Thursday, April 23, and ends Saturday, April 25. You can play against your friends, while also trying to climb the overall leaderboard in order to win prizes. A perfect score will make you $100,000 richer!
Listed below are the 18 questions you'll need to answer in order to participate. Also included is some background information on each topic. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe and I teamed up to supply some nuggets of info to help guide you through your decision-making process, but we did not offer up exactly where we landed on each question. Why? Well, we're fantasy players, too, and we're here to win. (Personally, I'd put that $100K toward an upgraded iRacing rig, but to each their own.) Good luck!
(Note: All mentions of Caesars sportsbook odds are as of April 15.)
1) Who will be the first overall pick?
a. Joe Burrow (LSU), b. Jeff Okudah (OSU), c. Chase Young (OSU), d. Any Other Player
OK, we said we weren't going to tip our picks, but how do you avoid that here? The quarterback-needy Bengals have the first pick of the draft and are fully expected to select Burrow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Nearly all mock drafts have him as the No. 1 pick and he's the sportsbook consensus favorite at -3500. Young is next closest at +1400. Even if a team overwhelms Cincinnati with a trade offer -- we're looking at you, Miami -- that team would be a near lock to select Burrow. Four of the past five No. 1 picks (and eight of the past 11) have been quarterbacks.
2) Which team will pick Tua Tagovailoa (ALA)?
a. Los Angeles Chargers, b. Miami Dolphins, c. Jacksonville Jaguars, d. Any Other Team
Caesars shows the Dolphins as the heavy favorites at -140. The Chargers (+250) and Redskins (+350) are next in line, with the Bengals coming in as the long shots at +3000.
All three of the teams listed as options have a need at quarterback. The Chargers (picking sixth) "mutually agreed" to part ways with Philip Rivers, which currently leaves 31-year-old Tyrod Taylor atop their depth chart and Easton Stick as his backup. Taylor has been a backup throughout most his career and hasn't started a game since being benched for Baker Mayfield in Week 3 of the 2018 season.
Miami (picking fifth) has 14 picks in the draft and thus the most ammunition to trade up for Tagovailoa. The Dolphins' current depth chart includes 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. The Jaguars (picking ninth) appear committed to 2018 sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew II for at least the 2020 season, but shouldn't be overlooked after trading away Nick Foles. With Minshew at the helm most of last season, the Jaguars ranked just 26th in points per game (18.8) and 26th in QBR.
If you're considering "the field," the other teams picking in the top 10 and their current QBs are as follows: Bengals (first, Burrow?), Redskins (second, Dwayne Haskins Jr.), Lions (third, Matthew Stafford), Giants (fourth, Daniel Jones), Panthers (seventh, Teddy Bridgewater), Cardinals (eighth, Kyler Murray) and Browns (10th, Mayfield).
3) Which division will the team that picks Justin Herbert (ORE) come from?
a. AFC East/NFC East, b. AFC North/NFC North, c. AFC South/NFC South, d. AFC West/NFC West
Here is a quick glance at the quarterback-neediest teams for each "geographical area."
East: The Dolphins have the fifth, 18th and 26th picks in the first round and Mel Kiper's latest mock draft has Herbert headed to Miami with that No. 5 pick. The Patriots pick 23rd and figure to be in the mix if Herbert falls that far. The Redskins are a long shot and would need to trade back from No. 2 overall.
North: The Bengals would need to trade back from the first pick. Neither the Steelers nor the Bears have first-round picks.
South: The Jaguars (ninth pick) are a team to watch and, while Minshew appears to be the guy for now, Todd McShay's latest mock has Herbert headed to Jacksonville there. Could the Panthers (picking seventh), Buccaneers (14th, Tom Brady) or Saints (24th, Drew Brees) start preparing for the future? Perhaps, if Herbert falls further than expected. The Colts don't have a first-round pick.
West: The Chargers (sixth pick) are the most likely candidate here, though perhaps the Raiders (12th) are a sleeper to consider.
4) How many defensive players will be picked in the top 10?
a. 0-3, b. 4, c. 5, d. 6 or More
In a 2019 draft class loaded with defensive talent, there were seven defenders selected in the top 10. However, there were only three picked in the top 10 in both 2017 and 2018. Both Mel and Todd have four defenders coming off the board in the top 10 (Young, Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown) in their latest mock drafts. In fact, Mel only has one additional defender in his top 15 while Todd has none.
5) Who will be the first wide receiver picked?
a. Jerry Jeudy (ALA), b. CeeDee Lamb (OKL), c. Henry Ruggs III (ALA), d. Any Other Player
Here are the Caesars odds: Jeudy (-150), Lamb (+140), Ruggs (+325), Jefferson (+15,000), Higgins (+30,000). Mel (ninth, to the Jaguars) and Todd (11th, to the Jets) agree with the odds, as both have Jeudy as the first wide receiver off the board. There's a healthy debate over which of Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs is the best prospect, however, and all it takes is one team to prefer the underdog to upset the applecart. Feel free to fire from the hip with this one.
6) Which of these players will be picked first?
a. Xavier McKinney (ALA), b. Kenneth Murray (OKL), c. Patrick Queen (LSU), d. Yetur Gross-Matos. (Penn St)
Let's head back to Mel and Todd's latest mocks. Mel has McKinney (17th) as the favorite, with Murray (20th), Queen (28th) and Gross-Matos (29th) trailing. Similarly, Todd has McKinney (17th) ahead, with Queen (21st), Murray (25th) and Gross-Matos (29th) next in line. A prop bet at Caesars Sportsbook asks which player will be selected first between Murray and Queen. Murray is considered the favorite at -150, with Queen sitting at +120.
7) How many players from the CFP Championship Game (Clemson vs. LSU) will be picked in Round 1?
a. 0-5, b. 6, c. 7, d. 8 or More
Mel and Todd's latest mocks both have seven Clemson/LSU players coming off the board in the first round. However, two of those are "close calls" in the final five picks of the round. Last year, six players from the previous championship game were picked in the first round. The year before, it was seven players. Both Mel and Todd have three players from the title game going in the second round (with two being selected inside the top 10 of Day 2), so it's certainly possible that either CB Kristian Fulton or S Grant Delpit (both from LSU) could work his way into the first round.
8) How many offensive linemen will be picked in Round 1?
a. 0-5, b. 6, c. 7, d. 8 or More
Exactly six offensive linemen have been picked in the first round of the past two drafts. The number was two in 2017 and seven in 2016. Mel's latest mock shows four of the first 14 picks being spent on offensive linemen (Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Jedrick Wills Jr., Andrew Thomas) and one more later in the round (Cesar Ruiz) for a total of five. However, he also has two more among his top 36 picks (Josh Jones, Austin Jackson). Todd's mock is similar, with five in the first round, including four in the top 15. He also has two more off the board in the first three picks of Day 2, which makes this a very close call.
9) Which of these players will be picked first?
a. J.K. Dobbins (OSU), b. Jacob Eason (WAS), c. D'Andre Swift (UGA), d. Jonathan Taylor (WIS)
Let's start with the mocks. Mel has Swift 32nd overall, Dobbins 37th, Eason 44th and Taylor 45th. Todd has Swift 32nd, Dobbins at 39th, Taylor 47th and Eason 49th.
Day 2 has emerged as a hotbed for finding a lead back, and teams like the Buccaneers (Ronald Jones II is currently atop their depth chart), Dolphins (Jordan Howard), Rams (Darrell Henderson Jr.), Chiefs (Damien Williams), Lions (Kerryon Johnson), Steelers (James Conner) and Bills (Devin Singletary) all figure to be in the mix.
Quarterbacks are always wild cards. Remember, it only takes one team to love a player and grab him earlier than expected, which could vault Eason up the board. a grand total of three quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round over the past five seasons. That makes Eason a tough bet considering at least one of the running backs figures to be selected during the first two rounds.
10) Which of these conferences will have a player picked first on Day 2 (Rounds 2-3)?
a. ACC, b. Big 12, c. Big Ten, d. Pac-12
Get your dart board ready! Mel's latest mock would tell you to go with the Big 12 (Baylor's Denzel Mims 34th overall), whereas Todd's would push you toward the Pac-12 (USC's Austin Jackson 33rd). Of course, it only gets more complicated from there, with Tee Higgins (ACC), Ross Blacklock (Big 12), A.J. Terrell (ACC), Michael Pittman (Pac-12) and Cesar Ruiz (Big Ten) all showing up in the 30-35 pick range of the mocks. Last season, the SEC had the most players drafted (64), with the Big Ten (40), Pac-12 (33), ACC (28) and Big 12 (26) well behind.
11) How many running backs will be picked in Round 2?
a. 0-1, b. 2, c. 3, d. 4 or More
Over the past decade, an average of 2.7 running backs have been drafted in Round 2. That number falls to 2.0 per year if you stick to just the past five seasons. Starting with 2019 and working backward, the number of backs picked in the second round over the past decade is as follows: 1, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 5, 2, 4, 3.
That paints a picture suggesting you should lean toward either A or B, but the 2020 class is heavy on Day 3 RB options. Mel's latest mock has three running backs off the board in Round 2 (Dobbins 37th, Taylor 45th and Clyde Edwards-Helaire 52nd). Todd has four with Dobbins (39th), Taylor (47th), Edwards-Helaire (52nd) and Cam Akers (62nd). Of course, both have D'Andre Swift just missing the cut at No. 32 overall to the Chiefs. Zack Moss is another name to watch as a Round 2 possibility.
12) How many non-Power 5 players will be picked in Round 3? (Note: Notre Dame is considered a Power 5 school)
a. 0-9, b. 10-12, c. 13-1,4 d. 15 or More
This question and the two that follow are very tricky as there are so many wild cards in play in the middle rounds. The best we can do is supply some data on the 2020 player pool. There are 255 selections set to be made during the draft, so I pulled a list of the top 255 players in our Scouts Inc. draft rankings.
From that pool of 255, 37 (14.5%) played at a non-Power 5 school. There will be 42 selections in Round 3 and 14.5% of that number is 6.1. If we specifically look at the players ranked 65th through 106th (the "third-round talent"), we land on six non-Power 5 players (14.3%). That's a lot of math, but this should give you a pretty darn good idea which way to lean.
13) How many schools will have multiple players picked in Rounds 2-3?
a. 0-12, b. 13-14, c. 15-16, d. 17 or More
Working with the same Scouts Inc data from Question 12, I looked at the players ranked 33rd through 106th. The results suggested that 17 schools will have multiple players picked on Day 2. LSU leads the way with five, followed by Notre Dame, Auburn and Alabama with four. Six schools show up with three and seven with two. However, if we look back at 2019, only 14 schools fit the bill, 11 of which had exactly two picked. In 2018, 13 schools fit the bill, nine of which had exactly two.
14) Which of these schools will have a player picked first on Day 3 (Rounds 4-7)?
a. Alabama, b. Michigan, c. Notre Dame, d. Clemson
Michigan and Alabama each have 10 players among the top-255 players in the Scouts, Inc rankings. Clemson has eight and Notre Dame has seven. If we eliminate the top-106 (in other words, the favorites to be selected on Day 1 and 2), we're left with Michigan tied for the most Day 3 talent (seven players) among all schools. Clemson (five), Notre Dame (three) and Alabama (one) are all further down the list. This one is more of a crapshoot that most, but hey, at least you have something to work with.
15) How many quarterbacks will be picked in Round 6?
a. 0, b. 1, c. 2, d. 3 or More
Over the past decade, an average of 1.9 quarterbacks have been drafted in Round 6. Again, restricted our look to just the past five seasons, that number remains pretty on target, at 1.8 per year. Starting with 2019, and looking backwards, the number of quarterbacks picked in the sixth round over the past decade is as follows: 2, 2, 1, 4, 0, 5, 0, 1, 1, 3.
Our Scouts Inc. data ranks two quarterbacks as being Round 6 talents (Cole McDonald, Jake Luton). However, Anthony Gordon and Nate Stanley fall into Round 5, with Brian Lewerke, Steven Montez and Tyler Huntley landing in Round 7. The likes of Kevin Davidson, Shea Patterson, James Morgan and Kelly Bryant were all also at the Combine and could also be candidates for a late-round pick.
16) How many SEC players will be picked?
a. 0-50, b. 51-55, c. 56-60, d. 61 or More
In 2019, the SEC set a new record for the most players selected from a single conference with 64. We shouldn't get too caught up in that number, though, considering the conference had not seen a number that high since it reached 63 back in 2013. In fact, the year by year totals from 2012-19 are all over the place: 42, 63, 49, 54, 51, 53, 53, 64. That works out to an average of 53.6. On the other hand, a look at our Scouts Inc Top 255 includes a whopping 70 SEC players. Will we see history get made again in 2020?
17) How many kickers and punters will be picked?
a. 0-2, b. 3, c. 4, d. 5 or More
Starting with 2019 and working backwards, the number of kickers/punters drafted over the past decade is as follows: 4, 6, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 2, 3. That works out to an average of 3.6 per season, both over the past decade and over the past five seasons. Notice that only once over the past eight seasons have fewer than three kickers/punters been drafted (2015) and only once over the past seven seasons have we reached as many as five.
The Scouts Inc rankings have zero kickers and two punters (Joseph Charlton, Braden Mann) inside the Top 255, however three kickers (Tyler Bass, Rodrigo Blankenship, JJ Molson) and one additional punter (Michael Turk) do crack the Top 300. For what it's worth, all 32 teams currently have at least one punter and 31 teams (all but the Patriots) have at least one kicker on their roster.
18) What conference will "Mr. Irrelevant" (last pick of draft) come from?
a. ACC/Pac-12, b. Big 12/Big Ten, c. SEC/Mountain West, d. Any Other Conference/Independent
Did you put that dart board away? Get it back out. Last season, the SEC and Mountain West combined for 74 selections, which easily beat out the Big 12 and Big Ten (66), ACC and PAC-12 (61) and all others (53). The last four to take home the prize were Caleb Wilson (Pac-12) in 2019, Trey Quinn (AAC) in 2018, Chad Kelly (SEC) in 2017 and Kalan Reed (AAC) in 2016. Incredibly, the last Mr. Irrelevant from the Big 12/Big Ten was Michigan's Matt Elliott way back in 1992.