Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (at Jacksonville Jaguars). Though it has been six weeks since Darnold reached the 20-point fantasy plateau, this is the kind of matchup that can easily propel a quarterback beyond that threshold. For the season, the Jaguars have afforded the position the most total fantasy points, points per game and adjusted fantasy points added (+7.4), and they've allowed the second-most points per pass attempt (0.56). Joe Flacco (Week 5), Caleb Williams (Week 6) and Drake Maye (Week 7) all exceeded 20 points against the Jaguars despite all three sporting seasonal averages below 15 points per game.
Others to like: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers); Daniel Jones, New York Giants (at Carolina Panthers).
Matchup to avoid: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (versus Detroit Lions). He's in the midst of a funk, falling short of 20 fantasy points in each of his past five games and averaging 9.8 points in his past three, which can be attributed in part to multiple injuries to key receivers as well as poor protection from his offensive line. Since Week 7, the Texans rank 26th in pass block win rate and have allowed the most sacks (14) and third-most quarterback contacts (40). Even with Nico Collins (hamstring) possibly back from injured reserve for this game, Stroud has his work cut out for him against a stout Lions defense. The Lions have an interception in each of their eight games and a sack in seven, and they have limited quarterbacks to the third-fewest fantasy points per pass attempts for the season (0.29).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants (at Panthers). His backfield takeover appears complete as, in three games since Devin Singletary's return from a groin injury, Tracy has played 35% more of the offensive snaps, amassed 28 more carries and averaged 8.8 more fantasy points per game than Singletary has. It's the kind of workload we want to see with the league's most favorable matchup for a running back up next. The Panthers have surrendered the most total fantasy points, points per game and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, with a league-leading six individuals scoring 20-plus against them this season.
Others to like: D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (versus New England Patriots); Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (versus Denver Broncos).
Matchup to avoid: Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (at Los Angeles Chargers). Pollard is coming off a season-high 31 touches in Week 9, which earned him 18.4 fantasy points against one of the league's worst run defenses, but he shouldn't be expected to repeat that workload this week. The Chargers are heavily favored in what's projected to be one of the week's lower-scoring games. It's also possible that Tyjae Spears (hamstring) returns to action and steals some of Pollard's work. Either way, the matchup is stacked against Pollard, as the Chargers are one of three defenses to have not afforded a 20-point game to a running back this season, and their 0.44 points per rushing attempt mark is the lowest in the league.
Wide receivers
Daniel Dopp, Field Yates and Stephania Bell break down Marvin Harrison Jr.'s disappointing performance in Week 9.
Matchups highlight: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (versus Vikings). Thomas is the Jaguars' de facto No. 1 wide receiver for the remainder of 2024, though it didn't play out that way in the Week 9 game, in which both Christian Kirk (collarbone) and Gabe Davis (shoulder) were absent. Bear in mind that he played a receivers-room-leading 90% of the team's offensive snaps and led the team with 32 routes run, including a red zone target. Thomas should be primed for much better fantasy numbers in this matchup against the weak point of the Vikings' defense. Eight wide receivers have scored at least 17.5 fantasy points against the Vikings this season, including three in the past three weeks alone.
Others to like: Jauan Jennings, 49ers (at Buccaneers); Jordan Addison, Vikings (at Jaguars).
Matchup to avoid: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (versus New York Jets). He has had quite his share of quiet games already this season, typically the result of tough matchups. Harrison was held beneath 6.0 fantasy points by the Buffalo Bills (Week 1), 49ers (Week 5), Green Bay Packers (Week 6), Chargers (Week 7) and Bears (Week 9), all of which rank among the bottom 13 defenses in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers for the season. The Jets have been the ninth-best defense in that category in 2024, after having been the league's best in 2023, making this one of Harrison's toughest assignments yet.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (at Indianapolis Colts). Though his fantasy production hasn't yet reflected it, his usage supports that of a prospective top-five positional option. Kincaid's 22% target share is fourth best among tight ends, and he is fifth best with eight red zone and four end zone targets. If he continues to see that many targets against the Colts, he could be destined for a season best in fantasy points. Indianapolis surrendered 16.8 points to Josh Oliver last week, 22.6 to Jonnu Smith in Week 7 and 12.4 to Brenton Strange in Week 5.
Matchup to avoid: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (versus Philadelphia Eagles). Though Cooper Rush targeted Ferguson three times, with two completions, after coming on in relief of injured Dak Prescott in Week 9, Rush's history leaning on tight ends isn't as promising as Prescott's. Since the beginning of 2021, Rush has targeted a tight end on 17% of his attempts, while Prescott has done so 22% of the time. Throw in the matchup and Ferguson is a low-end TE1 at best for Week 10. The Eagles have held tight ends to 1.33 fantasy points per target this season, fourth fewest in the league, and only four individuals have scored more than six points against them.