Giant Killers is back for our 14th annual forecast for the Sweet 16. As usual, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the regional semifinals. (Quick reminder: A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)
Perhaps we might additionally say: Welcome to our shortest-ever forecast for the Sweet 16. You might have noticed a good many favorites winning all weekend long, and, as a result, this bracket is heavy with Giants and short on plucky underdogs just itching to take them down. Nevertheless, there is indeed one game to talk about, so let's do this.
Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game, based on the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have most often led to tournament upsets in the past. As always, we've sorted our picks (or, in this case, pick) into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and, last and very likely least, Stay Away. (Hopefully, the titles are self-explanatory.)