In the first nine things I liked and disliked of 2024, we look at why Oklahoma City's title window is open thanks in part to co-star Jalen Williams, what Victor Wembanyama can already do playing at center and the area where the Golden State Warriors are missing the suspended Draymond Green the most.
Jump to Lowe's Things:
OKC's open title window | Wemby playing the 5!
Scoot showing signs | What the Suns can be
How real is Cam Thomas? | Where Golden State misses Draymond
New flop signal | Another step Stewart needs | Always helpful Batum
1. Jalen Williams, true co-star, has arrived, and so have the Oklahoma City Thunder
Young NBA teams are not supposed to do this -- ascend to the top of the league, beating juggernaut after juggernaut -- and they are certainly not supposed to do it in the style with which the Oklahoma City Thunder have announced themselves as a contender right freaking now.
This team finished below .500 last season! All five of its starters are 25 or younger; three of them are 21, 21 and 22. They have logged 75 combined playoff games. More than half of those -- 45 -- belong to Davis Bertans, who barely plays. Isaiah Joe has 11 more dating to his time with the Philadelphia 76ers; he accumulated 24 total minutes in those games.
And yet, the Thunder are 23-10 and have mauled opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions -- third best overall and No. 1 in the West, where the Thunder are within a game of the top seed.
The experience of watching these young Thunder is even more jarring than those numbers. They play with a poise and ruthlessness so beyond what is typical for their age that it is almost hard to process.
In tight games, the environment gets frenzied. Defenses change schemes and matchups by the minute. They rotate with ferocity, darting in and out of passing lanes. Arms are everywhere. Crowds are loud. It is hard to hear. You might have three reasonable options where you catch the ball, but they are all half-closed by the time you look up. They will be totally closed within one second. In those hothouse moments, championship teams need every player to pick the right option without hesitation.
To a remarkable level for a team so young, the Thunder thrive in those moments. They ping the right extra passes, even short-distance interior dishes you need to anticipate before even getting the ball. If the shot clock suggests it's time to shoot, whoever has the ball calmly goes into a go-to move. Cason Wallace, a 20-year-old rookie, will jab step and rise into an easy jumper at closing time.
The steadiness radiates from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, zooming past the All-NBA conversation and starting a new one about whether he is the best guard in the world. He has every move, and moves within those moves. He rarely turns the ball over, and that is a foundational characteristic of the entire team; only the Dallas Mavericks, helmed by another "best guard in the world" candidate in Luka Doncic, have a lower turnover rate.
Gilgeous-Alexander's trademark herky-jerky staccato confounds defenses, but part of his rise to superstardom is realizing when to dispense with all that and just go:
Unconventional guard-guard pick-and-rolls -- with Chet Holmgren pulling rim protectors outside -- are a bedrock of Oklahoma City's offense. One reason they work is that defenders never know how Gilgeous-Alexander will use those screens. Defenses worry about Gilgeous-Alexander knifing away from those picks instead of going around them. That tactic -- rejecting screens at turbo straight-line speed -- is a nasty counter to switching defenses. (Gilgeous-Alexander is a mean screener in his own right.)
Even if Gilgeous-Alexander barely ekes by his man, he contorts into reaching, angular scoop shots he can hit with either hand.
Holmgren is playing at an All-Star level. Teams fear defending him with centers, since many of them are too slow to contest Holmgren's pick-and-pop 3s. Opponents often guard him with wings and hide their centers on Josh Giddey -- leaving Giddey free to chuck 3s.
Giddey has hit 10 3s over his past three games; he's up to 37.5% from deep. Late in Oklahoma City's mega-win Tuesday, the Boston Celtics readjusted their matchups -- slotting a wing back onto Giddey and transferring Kristaps Porzingis onto Holmgren. It took the Thunder precisely zero possessions to pivot into a hail of Gilgeous-Alexander-Holmgren pick-and-pops. That is a veteran-level calculation.
Jalen Williams helped ice the game with a bullying drive and step-back over Jayson Tatum. Williams is a tank. He goes right through smaller guards and skinnier wings: