There are three weeks left in the 2022 NFL season, and little has been decided in the AFC. We know the Chiefs have won the West and the Bills have clinched a postseason spot. Everything else is up for grabs. There are 13 teams that can wake up Thursday morning with realistic hopes of making it to the playoffs.
Four of those teams are leading their respective divisions. There are nine competing for three AFC wild-card spots. Let's talk about that race and the teams outside of first place that have the best postseason shot. After a week in which games took stunning turns at halftime, on the final snap of the game and in overtime, we should remember that so much can change over these final three weeks.
With that said, I'm going to focus on the six teams whose chances of advancing into the postseason are at least 10%, per ESPN's Football Power Index. In doing so, I have to leave out three 6-8 teams:
The Pittsburgh Steelers (FPI projected playoff odds: 0.1%) won their third game in four weeks to keep their slim postseason hopes alive, but those wins have come against the Colts, Falcons and Panthers, who are a combined 14-27-1. With a 2-7 record in the AFC, Pittsburgh is hamstrung by a key tiebreaker in the wild-card race. Per The Upshot, the Steelers could win out and still have only a 4% chance of advancing to the postseason. They would need to have multiple games go their way each week to stay alive.
The Cleveland Browns (0.4%) followed in Pittsburgh's footsteps with their own win, taking advantage of a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens offense to win Deshaun Watson's first home start. Watson has struggled for consistency since rejoining the team after his suspension, but the bigger problem is the losses they racked up with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. They would lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Jets, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins and Bills, making a wild-card berth at 9-8 nearly impossible.
The Las Vegas Raiders (3.8%) salvaged their season with an incredible come-from-behind victory against the Patriots, with Derek Carr converting a fourth-and-10 to extend the contest and finding Keelan Cole for a tying touchdown before that famous "pitchy pitchy woo woo" finish in Las Vegas. The 2021 Raiders were on the ropes at 6-7 before winning their final four games and making it into the postseason, sparking hope they could again ride a hot streak in the final month of the season into a playoff berth.
Anything is possible with the Raiders, who seem to play a game that either traumatizes themselves or their opponents each week. There's also a slim chance the Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 18 and sit their starters, which would turn a difficult matchup into a much easier contest. Even if the Raiders win out against the Steelers, 49ers and Chiefs, though, they would still have only about a 60% chance of advancing to the postseason. Every other team ahead of them is essentially a lock to get in if they win out.
Let's run through the six remaining wild-card teams by increasing playoff odds:
Jump to a team:
Chargers | Dolphins | Jaguars
Jets | Patriots | Ravens
6. New England Patriots (7-7)
FPI playoff odds: 13.8%