AFC South preview: Andrew Luck, Colts unlikely to be corralled

The offense should be fine despite questions on the offensive line. The same can't be said about the defense. The Colts added only two new starters in the offseason -- safety Dwight Lowery and defensive end Kendall Langford -- to a unit that finished 18th in the NFL in stopping the run last season. Linebacker Robert Mathis, who led the NFL in sacks (19.5) in 2013, is back after missing last season with a torn Achilles. The Colts' offense should be explosive this season, but having to win games 45-42 on a weekly basis because the defense can't stop the opponent isn't ideal. "We have to hold our own," safety Mike Adams said. "We don't want to rely on Andrew Luck."

The progression with Luck is right on course. Wild-card playoffs in his first year. Division round in the second season. AFC Championship Game in the third season. Super Bowl appearance in the fourth season. Grigson spent the offseason adding the necessary pieces he thought would get the Colts past the likes of New England, Pittsburgh and Denver in the AFC. The additions of Gore and Johnson to go with the holdovers on offense put the Colts in position to be able to match points with any team in the league. Indianapolis reaches its first Super Bowl since 2009. But just like in 2009, the Colts will be on the wrong side of the outcome.

No. 20: HOUSTON TEXANS

Last Season: 9-7
Second place, AFC South

Quarterback is once again a problem in Houston. New starter Brian Hoyer ranked 27th in QBR last season (39.8) and is on his fifth team in seven years. The backfield isn't likely to offer Hoyer as much support as hoped, with a groin injury sidelining RB Arian Foster. The Texans do appear to be very well coached, however, and that should help. So should the defense. The Texans nearly made the playoffs last year, led by a defense that ranked first in turnovers forced (34) and second in EPA. That D could be even better in 2015 if LB Jadeveon Clowney is healthy and plays to his potential. Adding rookie CB Kevin Johnson also helps, but it all starts with All-Pro J.J. Watt and Houston's tremendous front seven. -- Mike Sando

They'll have an upgrade at quarterback, which I'll get to later. That combined with a defense that picks up where it left off last season, will push them over the edge. In the final quarter of last season, the Texans' defense was remarkable. This year they'll have Jadeveon Clowney back and they'll have an upgrade at nose tackle. And they won't be going through the learning curve that slowed them at the beginning of last season as they worked to pick up defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel's system. Remember, this is a team that was one game out of the playoffs last season despite playing four different quarterbacks.

Three of the four quarterbacks who played last season had Arian Foster available for at least part of their time starting. Foster changes the Texans' offense and without him the Texans could struggle to control the clock and score. Foster could be back for most of the season, and if he is that will help the Texans tremendously. They'll also play a much tougher schedule than the last-place schedule they played last year and will need more out of their offense than they did last year to again post a winning record.

Texans' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Chiefs: 54.3
Sept. 20 @ Carolina: 42.1
Sept. 27 vs. Tampa Bay: 72.9
Oct. 4 @ Atlanta: 44.8
Oct. 8 vs. Indianapolis: 43.3
Oct. 18 @ Jacksonville: 62.0
Oct. 25 @ Miami: 40.2
Nov. 1 vs. Tennessee: 73.9
Nov. 16 @ Cincinnati: 42.7
Nov. 22 vs. N.Y. Jets: 61.1
Nov. 29 vs. New Orleans: 53.5
Dec. 6 @ Buffalo: 42.3
Dec. 13 vs. New England: 44.3
Dec. 20 @ Indianapolis: 31.7
Dec. 27 @ Tennessee: 61.1
Jan. 3 vs. Jacksonville: 73.6

Tania Ganguli's game-by-game predictions

The quarterback position has completely turned around from last year. Former Texans starter Ryan Fitzpatrick might well have a strong year in New York, having been reunited with his former head coach Chan Gailey, but Brian Hoyer will be better in the Texans' system. Hoyer was 10-6 as a starter with the Browns, with an ACL tear in between. Last season he went 7-6, without much talent around him. The Browns had a nonexistent running game, a receiving corps that pales in comparison to what the Texans have now and the loss of center Alex Mack sent the offense in to a tailspin. Hoyer will have more help around him this year and he'll be in a system he has said feels like "coming home."

Right now the Texans are asking everyone to give Hoyer a chance. They're expecting creativity and consistency on offense. They're expecting dominance from their defense which has five former first-round picks in the front seven alone. They're saying that last year's 9-7 season wasn't anything to celebrate, even though it was greeted that way in Houston. Bill O'Brien's first year exceeded expectations in the city after the Texans slogged through 14 straight losses in 2013, but it did not exceed expectations inside the building.

They'll be saying the defense had a spectacular season, even though the process for easing Clowney back into his regular workload remained ongoing. The combination of J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork was as good as expected and Louis Nix III made major strides toward being able to be the Texans' nose tackle of the future. The defense helped mask an offense that had some growing pains without Foster early on and helped the team sneak into the playoffs, in which Houston went one and done. That won't work every year.

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No. 30: TENNESSEE TITANS

Last Season: 2-14
Fourth place, AFC South

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We heard a lot about off-the-chart intangibles from those scouting Marcus Mariota -- work ethic, leadership, poise. But those qualities can only take a team so far when the surrounding talent is lacking. Starting WRs? That'd be Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, who combined for just 1,213 receiving yards last season. RB Dexter McCluster is a decent complementary piece, and although his backfield mate Bishop Sankey could emerge (see below), Mariota might threaten to lead the Titans in rushing yards if the team makes full use of his talents. Tennessee did make a needed offseason move by signing LB Brian Orakpo. Best-case scenario? Mariota avoids injury, shows he has a bright future and the Titans emerge with a draft choice high enough to help them keep building. -- Mike Sando

It would take a year in which everything goes right for them and a lot goes wrong for the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars for the Titans to bounce back from 2-14 to go to the playoffs in 2015. The offense will have to produce way more than 15.8 points per game and convert more than 30.1 percent of third downs, and the defense will have to allow a lot less than 27.4 PPG while holding opponents' time of possession under last year's number, 32:29. Young running backs Bishop Sankey and David Cobb will have to emerge as a solid tandem behind a revamped, improved line, which will help put rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in the most ideal position to grow.

While there has been an influx of new talent -- largely through the draft on offense, largely through free agency on defense -- it's hard to rebuild a weak roster and change results so dramatically in just one year. Even if Mariota is a home run, he's going to need some time to make the transition to the NFL game. Look at the division's best players and the Titans don't have anything close. J.J. Watt is the best defender in the AFC South, and no one on the Titans comes close to rivaling that. The Titans have a decent crop of receivers, but no singular, dynamic player who's at the top of the league's list. The running backs rank lower than that. It's not star power so much as firepower that is the concern.

Titans' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Tampa Bay: 41.7
Sept. 20 @ Cleveland: 36.3
Sept. 27 vs. Indianapolis: 26.4
Oct. 11 vs. Buffalo: 42.1
Oct. 18 vs. Miami: 33.3
Oct. 25 vs. Atlanta: 39.7
Nov. 1 @ Houston: 25.9
Nov. 8 @ New Orleans: 26.2
Nov. 15 vs. Carolina: 39.5
Nov. 19 @ Jacksonville: 42.4
Nov. 29 vs. Oakland: 59.4
Dec. 6 vs. Jacksonville: 56.5
Dec. 13 @ N.Y. Jets: 30.9
Dec. 20 @ New England: 16.6
Dec. 27 vs. Houston: 38.6
Jan. 3 @ Indianapolis: 18.2

Paul Kuharsky's game-by-game predictions

Mariota at quarterback gives the Titans a highly regarded quarterback to develop and build around. He will certainly have some bad days and will need time to develop into an NFL signal-caller. But his early body of work, before appearing in a game that counts, has been very good. His fast learning and ability to not repeat mistakes, throw through tight windows, show pinpoint accuracy and lead the offense have all drawn raves from coaches and teammates alike. The Titans need to run the ball better and play more efficient defense to help maximize his chances to excel. But a team that has long lacked a face of the franchise certainly has one right now.

The Titans see themselves as a team on the rise that will be far more competitive in 2015. Three new veterans on defense will help lead the side of the ball now led by Dick LeBeau. And to a man the Titans are certain that Mariota will be a difference-maker for the franchise, making a significant impact from the start while not making the same sorts of mistakes over and over. "I understand we don't have much equity with fans," coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "We've got to build that up."

The record may not have shown it, but the Titans will be talking about a season that got their arrow pointing up. After a solid rookie campaign, they'll have a lot of stuff to review and consider with Mariota, and they'll know just what positions they need to bolster for him on offense and to fill out LeBeau's 3-4 defense.

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No. 31: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Last Season: 3-13
Third place, AFC South

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A sampling of opinion on Blake Bortles: "I'm not feeling it," one coach says. "He looked lost," says another. And now the good news: According to one personnel director, "For the beating he was taking, he was pretty poised about it." Really, the problems in J-ville are so widespread -- 26th in both points and yards allowed in 2014 -- that it's unfair to bury Bortles, even if he did have the fifth-lowest QBR for a rookie (25.2) since 2006, the year the metric made its debut. To help him, the Jags signed TE Julius Thomas and drafted back T.J. Yeldon to join emerging WR Allen Robinson. They also have significantly upgraded their depth on the offensive line. Adding DT Jared Odrick and CB Davon House should help a pass D that collected a league-low 6 INTs last season. But losing DE Dante Fowler to a season-ending knee injury was devastating for the pass rush. -- Mike Sando

The Jaguars have one of the league's easiest schedules (25th in strength-of-schedule rankings), which includes games against Tampa Bay, the NFC South, and two against Tennessee. Based on training camp and the early preseason games it looks like the offense is going to be better. QB Blake Bortles' mechanical fixes have resulted in better accuracy (80 percent completions in the first two preseason games factoring in six drops) and second-year WR Allen Robinson is developing into a reliable playmaker to go along with TE Julius Thomas. New OL coach Doug Marrone has made the unit better in the run game and the addition of RB T.J. Yeldon helps, too. Greg Olson's offense will play to the team's strengths, which will be tight end play with Thomas and Marcedes Lewis.

It's hard to make a significant jump in one year and the Jaguars would need to win at least nine games in 2015, three times the number they won last season. One season after finishing sixth in the league in sacks, the pass rush is again a huge concern. No Dante Fowler Jr. (torn ACL), which means the team is relying on Chris Clemons (who turns 34 in October) and Andre Branch, a former second-round pick who has 10 sacks in three seasons, to be the team's top two pass-rushers. As mentioned above, the offense will be better - but it was one of the worst in the league in 2014 (31st overall, 21st rushing, 31st passing). It would be unrealistic to expect a jump into the top 15, and it's hard to win games with an average offense unless you have a lights-out defense, which the Jaguars don't have.

Jaguars' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Carolina: 38.2
Sept. 20 vs. Miami: 36.5
Sept. 27 @ New England: 15.5
Oct. 4 @ Indianapolis: 16.2
Oct. 11 @ Tampa Bay: 42.2
Oct. 18 vs. Houston: 37.6
Oct. 25 vs. Buffalo (in London): 31.9
Nov. 8 @ N.Y. Jets: 34.4
Nov. 15 @ Baltimore: 20.0
Nov. 19 vs. Tennessee: 57.2
Nov. 29 vs. San Diego: 44.8
Dec. 6 @ Tennessee: 43.1
Dec. 13 vs. Indianapolis: 28.4
Dec. 20 vs. Atlanta: 43.0
Dec. 27 @ New Orleans: 29.5
Jan. 3 @ Houston: 26.2

Mike DiRocco's game-by-game predictions

Early returns on the improvement of the offensive line are promising and that's directly related to the hiring of Marrone, the former Buffalo Bills head coach who has a reputation as one of the better OL coaches in the league. He has already adjusted LG Zane Beadles' stance to generate more power in the run game. He has also helped LT Luke Joeckel be more consistent with his hands in pass protection. The key to the offense's improvement will be how well this unit improves from last season, when it was largely responsible for the NFL-high 71 sacks the Jaguars allowed.

Coach Gus Bradley said four words at his news conference the day before training camp began: "Now is the time." The Jaguars need to show progress and improvement. They've had three draft classes, have apparently found their quarterback, and spent $80.5 million in guaranteed money this year on free agents. It's Year 3 of the rebuild under Bradley and GM David Caldwell and they are expecting things to look better on the field, which should mean more victories.

If everything goes right the Jaguars should be improved enough to challenge a .500 record and talk should be centering on a potential playoff push in 2016. That's a legitimate expectation in Year 4 under Caldwell and Bradley, especially when you take into consideration that the team will have two first-round picks: its normal pick and Fowler, who was the No. 3 overall pick in 2015.