2015 preview: All 32 teams
No. 6: DALLAS COWBOYS
Last Season: 12-4
First place, NFC East; lost 26-21 to Packers in divisional round
Sometimes a team simply asks too much of its quarterback. From 2006 to 2013, the first eight seasons with Tony Romo, the Cowboys passed 61.7 percent of the time, the seventh-highest rate over that stretch. In 2014: a 16 percent drop, to 51.8 percent. The Cowboys went 12-4 and won a playoff game. "I'm wondering why they haven't done that forever," one offensive coordinator says. But RB DeMarco Murray's departure and the Cowboys' halfhearted attempts at replacing him will test whether a dominant O-line can produce a top-level running game without an upper-tier back. On defense, the hope is that DE Greg Hardy, after his four-game suspension, can improve a pass D that ranked 26th in yards allowed. He might, but losing CB Orlando Scandrick hurts. -- Mike Sando
The Cowboys lost DeMarco Murray in free agency to the Philadelphia Eagles and Orlando Scandrick for the season in training camp with a knee injury, but there are still plenty of reasons to believe they can make the playoffs and it starts with the offense. The Cowboys still have Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and one of the best offensive lines in football. The defense will miss Scandrick, but the Cowboys were able to overcome the loss of Sean Lee before last season and made the playoffs. Rod Marinelli made more with less last year, but even with the loss of Scandrick he has more talent defensively this season.
The Cowboys have some of the best talent inside the division, but they face a more challenging nonconference schedule this year. Last year, they were matched up with the weak AFC South and won all four meetings. This year, they get the tougher AFC East with difficult defenses in the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. They will now have to face Tom Brady leading the New England Patriots. Plus, the Cowboys play the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.
Cowboys' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. N.Y. Giants: 67.8
Sept. 20 at Philadelphia: 45.9
Sept. 27 vs. Atlanta: 67.5
Oct. 4 at New Orleans: 49.2
Oct. 11 vs. New England: 48.0
Oct. 18 at N.Y. Giants: 56.4
Nov. 1 vs. Seattle: 49.6
Nov. 9 vs. Philadelphia: 55.3
Nov. 15 at Tampa Bay: 66.9
Nov. 22 at Miami: 47.5
Nov. 26 vs. Carolina: 65.0
Dec. 6 at Washington: 63.7
Dec. 13 at Green Bay: 34.9
Dec. 20 vs. N.Y. Jets: 68.9
Dec. 27 at Buffalo: 49.3
Jan. 3 vs. Washington: 74.0
Todd Archer's game-by-game predictions
The Cowboys knew they had to bolster the pass rush after they were unable to get to a gimpy Aaron Rodgers in the playoff loss to the Packers. They signed Greg Hardy as a free agent and will have him for at least 12 games instead of six with a reduced suspension. They drafted Randy Gregory in the second round and he has been one of the best defenders in training camp. They also believe second-year defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence will blossom as well. Marinelli's defense is built on pressure from the front four. He has more to work with this year and that should help overcome the loss of Scandrick.
The Cowboys showed up to training camp with high expectations based on last year and the new additions. They believe they have a team that can contend, but Jason Garrett has used a golf analogy to make sure the players understand the value of hard work. Except for the Scandrick injury, the Cowboys were able to stay away from catastrophic injuries. "Coach Garrett has got a great phrase, 'Don't just bang balls,'" tight end Jason Witten said. "I think this team came out with a purpose each day to get better and focused on those things. Now hopefully we see the results follow with it."
The Cowboys surprised just about everybody with their 12-4 finish and NFC East title last season. They enter this season with much higher expectations. Playing as the favorite is different from playing as the underdog. In the past, they have not dealt well with expectations, but Jason Garrett has a team that has strong veteran leadership and quality young talent. The Cowboys might not win 12 games again, but they will make the playoffs, which would put them in contention for a spot in Super Bowl 50.
No. 9: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Last Season: 10-6
Second place, NFC East
Yes, Sam Bradford has the talent to make the Eagles a contender. A healthy Sam Bradford. Provided he can avoid injury (two torn ACLs in two seasons), he should keep the Eagles' O flying alongside offseason prize RB DeMarco Murray. "If he can stay healthy," says one rival coach, "he can be so accurate." The defense has ranked near the middle of the pack in EPA since head coach Chip Kelly arrived two years ago, but improvement is possible thanks to a trade for stud LB Kiko Alonso and the acquisitions (for almost $70M) of CBs Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III. An NFC East crown is certainly within reach. -- Mike Sando
They're in the NFC East. Chip Kelly has won 10 games in each of his first two seasons. Now, with a significantly improved roster, Kelly should win at least that many. But it's the apparent lack of a really intimidating rival in the division that puts the Eagles in such great shape. If Sam Bradford can stay healthy (a serious if), the Eagles should be an 11-5 or 12-4 team. That should be enough to get them into the postseason.
While most of Kelly's offseason moves appear to be sound, there is a definite risk that he just plain made too many changes. The Eagles could have 11 new starters this season. It will take time for that many new players to get comfortable with each other and develop a winning chemistry. And there's always the injury factor: Kelly is counting on a lot of players who have had serious injuries, from Bradford to Kiko Alonso to DeMarco Murray.
Eagles' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 14 @ Atlanta: 50.6
Sept. 20 vs. Dallas: 53.8
Sept. 27 @ N.Y. Jets: 56.0
Oct. 4 vs. at Washington: 60.9
Oct. 11 vs. New Orleans: 61.1
Oct. 19 vs. N.Y. Giants: 64.5
Oct. 25 @ Carolina: 49.0
Nov. 8 @ Dallas: 44.4
Nov. 15 vs. Miami: 61.0
Nov. 22 vs. Tampa Bay: 78.1
Nov. 26 @ Detroit: 50.4
Dec. 6 vs. at New England: 37.6
Dec. 13 vs. Buffalo: 62.9
Dec. 20 vs. Arizona: 60.9
Dec. 27 vs. Washington: 74.5
Jan. 3 @ N.Y. Giants: 52.2
Phil Sheridan's game-by-game predictions
It has to be Bradford. Kelly came to feel that his team was limited by the performance of its quarterbacks. He traded Nick Foles for Bradford, hoping to acquire an elite quarterback coming off two torn ACLs. Kelly changed (and likely improved) his linebacking corps, his secondary, his running backs and his offensive line. But it will be the quarterback who determines whether the Eagles make the leap from good to great.
There is an air of optimism around this team. The players who survived Kelly's roster purge feel as if they passed a test. The guys who failed it are gone. And the guys who are still here have been fortified by the additions of Bradford, Murray, Alonso and Byron Maxwell, among others. They already believed in Kelly's system. Now they feel they have the players and the depth to make a run at the postseason.
While the Eagles will likely finish playing in January, there is every chance they will have a playoff win to show for their 2015 efforts. When February comes, the Eagles will feel that they made progress toward becoming a Super Bowl team and are headed in the right direction. Most of all, they will believe that they have, in Bradford, a quarterback who can lead them there.
No. 21: NEW YORK GIANTS
Last Season: 6-10
Third place, NFC East
Eleven-year vet Eli Manning set a career high in completion percentage (63.1) last season while racking up 4,410 yards. Yet the Giants were only 6-10, an indication of just how much the defense has fallen off, ranking 18th in defensive EPA and last in yards per carry in 2014. The Giants signed LBs J.T. Thomas and Jonathan Casillas, which should help, but the team still lacks the major pass rush required to compete in the East, exacerbated by the absence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul. New RB Shane Vereen, signed away from New England, does at least give the offense yet another dynamic playmaker. "Finally getting Manning weapons and guys with speed is really going to help him going forward," says a personnel director. -- Mike Sando
This is a tough one. You can make the argument that it's going to be tough for the NFC East champion Cowboys to repeat the 12-4 season they had last year. And the Eagles ... no one seems to know whether they'll be good or not. The Giants play the NFC South -- a division in which no team finished .500 last year -- and generally don't have an intimidating schedule. If their offense clicks the way it did in the second half of last year behind Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr., and if the offensive line holds up, they could sneak into the playoffs with nine or 10 wins, I guess.
They just don't have enough good players. The whole idea of a dominant offense is based on the idea of a run game that didn't exist last year springing to life behind a questionable line, and the return of Victor Cruz to his old self following a major knee injury. Those are big "ifs," and the defense looks woefully short on impact players even if Jason Pierre-Paul does come back from his hand injury to be effective. This is still a roster in rebuild, and too many things would have to go right.
Giants' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Dallas: 31.9
Sept. 20 vs. Atlanta: 57.7
Sept. 27 vs. Washington: 67.8
Oct. 4 @ Buffalo: 42.7
Oct. 11 vs. San Francisco: 62.2
Oct. 18 @ Philadelphia: 35.2
Nov. 1 vs. Dallas: 43.3
Nov. 9 @ New Orleans: 39.8
Nov. 15 @ Tampa Bay: 57.8
Nov. 22 vs. New England: 41.0
Nov. 26 @ Washington: 57.4
Dec. 6 vs. N.Y. Jets: 53.6
Dec. 13 @ Miami: 38.0
Dec. 20 vs. Carolina: 55.7
Dec. 27 @ Minnesota: 43.8
Jan. 3 vs. Philadelphia: 47.4
Dan Graziano's game-by-game predictions
Health. The Giants have been the most injured team in the league the past two years, according to Football Outsiders' "adjusted games lost" metric, and if they were to get some good health luck for a change, things might look a lot better. The problem is that they lost their starting left tackle, Will Beatty, to a torn pectoral muscle in May and their best defensive lineman, Pierre-Paul, to a fireworks accident in July. Not exactly a stirring start if you're trying to reverse your bad injury luck.
"I still think you need to have a solid defense, but the rules now favor the offense mostly, and you have to score points," GM Jerry Reese said. "If you don't score points, if you're playing from behind all the time, it's hard to win football games. You've got to get out and score points. We hope our offense can do that."
The Giants haven't had three straight losing seasons since they had eight of them in a row from 1973 to '80. Those were dark times in franchise history, and the miserable results in the 2008-12 drafts have created another lull from which it will take a while to escape. Tom Coughlin's Super Bowl pedigree has kept him in his job longer than a lot of people with similar recent results would have lasted. But after a fourth straight year without a playoff appearance, the Giants probably end up cutting ties with their legendary coach and starting over with a new program in 2016.
No. 32: WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Last Season: 4-12
Fourth place, NFC East
In the three years since Robert Griffin III arrived in Washington, the Redskins' offense has slipped dramatically -- dropping in 2014 to 26th in points scored (down from fourth in 2012). "Griffin's done," says an offensive coach. "The injury (torn ACL, LCL in wild card loss on Jan. 6, 2013) slowed his legs, and his ego will not allow him to grind his way back." That's why the Redskins did not hesitate to name Kirk Cousins their starter for Week 1. To compensate for its QB issues, the team will need an elite defense -- which it doesn't have. Last year the D ranked 31st in EPA and last in QBR allowed at 76.6, the worst mark in the nine-year history of the metric. Yes, the Redskins switched out D-coordinator Jim Haslett for Joe Barry and made moves designed to upgrade the blocking (welcome, Brandon Scherff), but this team had too many flaws to fix in one offseason. -- Mike Sando
Their run game becomes one of the NFL's best, behind a bigger line and with running backs Alfred Morris and Matt Jones. They could then use deep play-action with receiver DeSean Jackson for big plays. That, and an improved defense (they were better than 2014 even before Junior Galette was signed) will offset quarterback issues. The run defense should be improved and the interior pass rush should be as well. Also, they'll make it if quarterback Robert Griffin III struggles early and they don't wait long to see if anything changes.
Because they still have major questions at quarterback and injury issues and a head coach who must prove himself after a four-win debut. It's not even whether or not Griffin can return to his 2012 level, it's whether he can even be a mediocre passer. But don't be fooled: This isn't just about the quarterback. The Redskins still have holes elsewhere and early-season injuries have robbed them of at least one potential playmaker in Galette; questions in the secondary persist.
Redskins' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Miami: 41.5
Sept. 20 vs. St. Louis: 46.8
Sept. 24 @ N.Y. Giants: 32.0
Oct. 4 vs. Philadelphia: 38.8
Oct. 11 @ Atlanta: 32.6
Oct. 18 @ N.Y. Jets: 32.8
Oct. 25 vs. Tampa Bay: 57.6
Nov. 8 @ New England: 21.0
Nov. 15 vs. New Orleans: 43.8
Nov. 22 @ Carolina: 31.6
Nov. 29 vs. N.Y. Giants: 42.2
Dec. 7 vs. Dallas: 36.0
Dec. 13 @ Chicago: 39.7
Dec. 20 vs. Buffalo: 43.6
Dec. 26 @ Philadelphia: 25.3
Jan. 3 @ Dallas: 25.8
John Keim's game-by-game predictions
The defensive staff, including coordinator Joe Barry, and half the starting personnel on that side of the ball. The Redskins added defensive linemen who can get upfield, such as end Stephen Paea, and a run-stopper in the middle in nose tackle Terrance Knighton. They pieced together a new secondary, with corner Chris Culliver and safety Dashon Goldson. All the changes led to a different, and welcome, energy. The Redskins know they must win with an improved defense and strong run game.
"I'm not going to put a number on it, but I know this, when you play the Redskins this year, you're going to know you played us. You're going to feel us from the standpoint of being physical. The next morning, you're going to be sore. We're not going to win every game, but I tell you what, we're going to compete no matter what. We're going to get after you and we'll not back down from anything. If we do, changes will be made, but we're not going to. We're going to get after it. You're going to know you played us. That's all I ask for right now," GM Scot McCloughan.
Who will be our next quarterback? It's hard to see this going well (or ending well) for Griffin or the Redskins, unless he dramatically improves his game so he can become a consistent passer. If he's struggling and they keep playing him, it'll lead to more of the chaos that engulfed the franchise the past two seasons - leading to stories about who really wants him on the field and more. If Griffin struggles and the Redskins do make a change, the other question will be whether or not Kirk Cousins will show, once and for all, if he's a worthy starter and should be re-signed.