RENTON, Wash. -- One of John Schneider's football mantras, ingrained in him during his formative years in the Green Bay Packers' front office, is that the two most important people in an NFL franchise are the head coach and the quarterback.
The Seattle Seahawks' general manager now controls the fates of both spots.
To be sure, Schneider will weigh input from whichever coach he hires to replace Pete Carroll when deciding on whether to stick with Geno Smith at quarterback in 2024. But now that Schneider holds final say in personnel matters in the Seahawks' post-Carroll power structure, the decision will ultimately be his to make.
Smith, 33, has two years left on the three-year, $75 million extension he signed last March after making the Pro Bowl and winning the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award, though the Seahawks could conceivably move on this offseason with non-prohibitive cap penalties. They would incur $17.4 million in dead money either by cutting him before his $12.7 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed on Feb. 16 or by trading him before March 17.
Conventional wisdom suggests the likeliest outcome is the Seahawks rolling with Smith for at least another year and seeing whether a new coaching staff/offensive system will coax steadier play out of him in 2024, the kind that typified his first half of 2022 and his finish to '23.
But that doesn't feel like a sure thing.
Smith is coming off a mixed-bag of a season. He was historically clutch in the fourth quarter and posted the NFL's best QBR over the final six weeks, a span that includes the two games he missed with a groin injury. But even with that strong finish, his production dipped across the board from 2022, including 10 fewer touchdown passes (though also two fewer interceptions) and a completion rate that fell from 69.8% to 64.7%.
Just as significantly, he no longer has Carroll -- perhaps his biggest supporter in the organization -- calling the shots.
"I think Geno had a good season," Schneider said earlier this month in his first media appearance as the Seahawks' top decision-maker. "It was a little bit opposite of last year. He started out real strong last year and things dipped a little bit the second half. And then I thought this year he started out not quite as strong as last year and then finished in a real strong manner."
Schneider's tepid assessment of Smith's play in 2023 stood in contrast to how Carroll often spoke of him, repeatedly deflecting blame away from the quarterback and at one point calling him "one of my favorite all-time guys."
SMITH'S 2023 SEASON, like his future in Seattle, was hardly straightforward.
The first half included one of his best performances as a Seahawk in an overtime win over the Detroit Lions in Week 2, but also a four-game stretch from Weeks 6-9 in which he turned the ball over eight times, double the number of touchdown passes he threw in that span.
That turnover funk came with the caveat that Smith wasn't getting enough help around him, a point Carroll often noted in defense of the QB. The run game was inconsistent, the O-line used nine different starting combinations due to injuries, rookie receivers went through growing pains and the defense struggled to get off the field. Yet Smith overcame those issues during his strong finish.
The turnaround started in Week 13, when Smith played his best game of the season in a 41-35 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, totaling 340 yards and four touchdowns with one interception.
That game marked right tackle Abraham Lucas' return from a knee injury and the beginning of a shift in emphasis with Seattle's passing game. In order to get their offense out of a rut of seven straight quarters without a touchdown and combat the formidable pass rushes they were about to face, Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron (who is set to become the Bears' new OC) made it more of a priority to get the ball out quicker.
From Weeks 1-12, Smith's average time before throw was 2.91 seconds, 24th-fastest in the NFL. From Weeks 13-18, which includes the two games he missed with a groin injury, it was 2.65 seconds, fifth-fastest.
Smith went from 12 touchdown passes, eight interceptions and a QBR of 49.6 (20th) in Weeks 1-11, to eight TD passes (and one rushing), one interception and an NFL-best 81.3 QBR in his final four games. His rate of sacks per dropback went from 6.8% (20th) to 2.7% (first).
Overall, Smith finished 14th in QBR (59.4), which was down from his seventh-place finish in QBR (62.8) in 2022.
"I felt like I got better as a quarterback," Smith said after the Seahawks' season-ending win over the Arizona Cardinals. "I got better as a leader. I gained so much perspective this year, battled through injuries. We had different things happen, different circumstances with injuries as a team and we fought through it.
"I pushed every single day, didn't miss a single day, was there early, left late and gave it all I got. I know I can be a lot better in some areas, working to improve on those, but I'm appreciative ... of all these moments because they always, always lead to something greater."
With only one of their nine victories coming by more than 10 points, the Seahawks routinely needed Smith to come through in the clutch, and he did. His 34-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett in the finale against Arizona was his seventh go-ahead TD pass in the fourth quarter or overtime. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that's the most in a season in NFL history.
"I felt like I was better in the pocket this year," Smith said. "I felt like I got better as the season went on at limiting turnovers and really just leading this team. I was able to get a bunch of different last-second drives in the end. That's something that we always want to do, we want to finish games the right way."
WITH THE SEAHAWKS missing out on the playoffs, Smith is due to make $22.5 million in 2024.
In addition to its $75 million base value, Smith's contract gave him the ability to make an additional $15 million via escalators in each of the next two seasons. That included $2 million escalators for matching or exceeding his 2022 stats in passing yards (4,282), passing touchdowns (30), completion rate (69.755%) and passer rating (100.874). Smith fell short in all four categories, finishing with 3,642 yards, 20 passing TDs, 64.7% completion rate and a 92.1 rating.
Another $2 million was available if the Seahawks made the playoffs or won 10 games (provided Smith played at least 80% of the offensive snaps, which he did).
By not qualifying for any of his escalators, Smith's roster bonus -- due on the fifth day of free agency in March -- remains at $9.6 million. That plus his $12.7 million salary and a $200,000 workout bonus make up the $22.5 million he's scheduled to earn in 2024.
According to Spotrac, that ranks 18th among quarterbacks in cash owed for next season. Smith's $31.2 million cap charge ranks 12th, though the Seahawks could reduce that number by around $5-10 million by converting his roster bonus and/or base salary into a signing bonus. According to OverTheCap.com, they're projected to be around $4 million over the salary cap before any subtractions or restructures.
The Feb. 16 trigger date for Smith's 2024 salary would serve as a deadline to cut him, but not necessarily to trade him, since any team that dealt for him would inherit his contract. A trade before March 17 would wash the Seahawks' hands of the $47.5 million remaining on his contract but would leave them with $17.4 million in dead money that would count against their 2024 cap.
If the Seahawks are to move on from Smith this offseason, a trade seems more likely than a release. In addition to potentially getting something in return, waiting until closer to the start of free agency to find a trade partner would give Schneider and the new coach more time to vet draft options, whereas cutting Smith before Feb. 16 means they'd have to move on before seeing or meeting with any quarterbacks at the combine later that month.
The Seahawks own the No. 16 overall pick in April's draft. They have an extra third-rounder but no second, having parted with it in the Leonard Williams trade. That would complicate efforts to draft Smith's replacement, another reason why Drew Lock, who will be a free agent come March, would seemingly be the most likely candidate to assume the starting job should Seattle make a change.
Lock, after all, was one of the main reasons why Schneider wanted to trade Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos in 2022. Much of the organization presumed he would start that year until Smith beat him out. After not playing a snap in '22, Lock made four relief appearances this past season, throwing three touchdown passes to three interceptions and going 1-1 in his two starts. He led the Seahawks on a game-winning drive against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, which snapped Seattle's four-game losing streak.
Lock, 27, played this season on a one-year, $4 million contract. He has positioned himself for a better deal this time around, but could Schneider be intrigued by Lock as a cheaper and younger -- even if not immediately better -- alternative to Smith?
Such a move would be more in line with a rebuild and not with Schneider's stated belief that the Seahawks are "on the cusp."
Smith might have done enough during his strong finish to put the question about his viability as the Seahawks' long-term starter on hold.
"Honestly I never really focus on that," Smith said after the season finale of his job security. "My job as the player is to get better, honestly, and so that's what I'm focused on. Security and all that, I'm secure with myself as a player. I'm secure with the type of quarterback I am. I know I'm a championship quarterback. I know I'm going to continue to lead and continue to be great, and I've just got to continue to push and continue to get better and help the guys around me get better. That's really where my focus is."