EAGAN, Minn. -- The quarterback has one of the best downfield arms in the game. The roster boasts the top receiver in the game. The No. 2 receiver is awfully good himself. The scheme is designed for chunk plays, and the coach considers them central to his winning formula.
So here's the dilemma: The quarterback's history of turnovers helped scuttle his previous two starting opportunities elsewhere and the habit has reappeared in his new team's offense -- even as he has made more big plays than at any time in his career. What should the team do?
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold led the NFL in turnovers (13) through Week 10 but also was tied for No. 4 in touchdown passes (17) and No. 2 in completed passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air (17). Darnold's arm has helped receiver Justin Jefferson compile the second-most receiving yards in the NFL (831), and it has been one of the primary reasons the Vikings have jumped out to an unexpected 7-2 record.
But turnovers have come in bunches his past two games, including five interceptions -- three in the end zone -- and a fumble returned for a touchdown. Darnold now has a higher average of turnovers per play (0.04) this season than in any other of his career, and it prompted a noticeable shift toward the running game last week in the second half of the an ugly 12-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Coach Kevin O'Connell had been attempting to balance the big-play potential Darnold's arm provides with the decision-making that has made the past two games much closer than they otherwise would have been. He has maintained full support in Darnold as his starter, and he said last week that he wants Darnold to be aggressive because "He's, in my opinion, throwing the ball as well as many, many guys in this league right now."
But in a revealing exchange during an interview Tuesday with KFAN-1130, O'Connell acknowledged he intentionally flipped his run-pass ratio against the Jaguars, shifting from 37% designed runs in the first half to 57.4% in the second. It led to the Vikings' lowest rate of designed passes in a game (52.5%) since a Week 1 blowout of the New York Giants and was a sign that he can and will adjust away from the pass if Darnold can't stem the tide of turnovers.
"I think there's a layer sometimes where in my mind I'm trying to have some growth as the head coach," O'Connell said, "and not just the playcaller, not just the egomaniac of wanting to score points and constantly show everybody how smart we are.
"There was a mode that I think you have to go into sometimes to ensure victory. When your defense is playing the way we were playing, I made the decision in the second half we were going to commit and run the football."
Indeed, were it not for a defense that has allowed 10 points per game and forced five turnovers over the past two weeks, and a place-kicker transition that led to Parker Romo's 4-for-4 performance in his NFL debut, the Vikings might have absorbed a season-crushing pair of losses rather than wins over the Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts.
The turnovers have muted what were the team's two best offensive performances of the season in terms of moving the ball, with a combined 57 first downs -- the most in the NFL over that period.
The Vikings (7-2) might not need high-scoring efforts to win their next two games, against the Tennessee Titans (2-7) and Chicago Bears (4-5), who rank No. 27 and No. 25, respectively, in offensive scoring.
Soon, however, they'll need Darnold to settle in. In 24 previous seasons this century, the NFL turnover leader has entered the playoffs as a starter three times (12.5%). Backup Nick Mullens might not provide a specific cure, as his career rate of 0.039 turnovers per play is essentially the same as Darnold's this season.
"I've just got to continue to take what they give me," Darnold said this week, "and if I am going to try to force one in there, make it an 'us or nobody' kind of throw. I think that's pretty much it. ... Things happen during this game. Obviously, we don't want to turn the ball over, but when things happen on the football field, which they're gonna happen, [I need to] be able to move on and get ready for the next play."
The Vikings have built their offense around Jefferson, for good reason, and Darnold has targeted him on a higher percentage of his passes (31.7) than any other NFL QB-receiver combination this season. That emphasis prompted the Jaguars to use a two-deep shell defense on Jefferson for 39 of 42 dropbacks All three of Darnold's interceptions came on passes he directed Jefferson's way.
Later, when the Vikings faced third down in the red zone during the third quarter, O'Connell called a play for Jefferson to run a fade on the right side of the formation. Darnold instinctively threw toward Jefferson, who was bracketed by two defenders. The ball fell incomplete, nearly 10 yards away from Jefferson -- just as No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison broke open on an in-cut on the other side of the field.
"I told Sam coming off the field, 'No matter how much we want it to change, they're not changing [their defense],'" O'Connell said in the radio interview. "So we've got to see that, we've got to diagnose that, we've got to put the ball in play. Had a chance at Jordan on the backside. In my mind as the playcaller, I'm thinking the backside could be the frontside if we see it and progress, but that's a lot sometimes to put on Sam. That's where I've got to get better at the minute-to-minute communication."
Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips described that communication as ensuring that Darnold knows and understands the "intent" of the play. Absent that, it's not out of the question that the Vikings make their shift toward the running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers more permanent.
"It is a balance, and sometimes the turnovers are a concern," Phillips said. "Certainly. It's not something we brush over. ... There's a lot of factors there, but we're just going to keep coaching and keep trying to make sure that we're getting to the plays that we're rock solid on what the intent is from our standpoint -- from Kevin's standpoint when he calls a play -- so that Sam is on the same page. And hopefully we can set it up in a way that we get the guys open for him."