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What the Rebels' demise means for Super Rugby Pacific format, finals

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Quarterfinals usually produce the best tournament rugby.

Cast your mind back to last year's Rugby World Cup. The best matches of that tournament by a long way? The All Blacks-Ireland, and France-South Africa quarterfinals.

Sure, fixing the World Cup draw years in advance and pitting the world's four leading teams against each other at that premature stage - two weeks before the final - was a blowout of epic proportions.

As it transpired France and Ireland exiting early sucked the life from the 2023 tournament.

Those contests, though, stand as moments in time - as two of the most gripping knockout matches in rugby history.

And while the Wales-Argentina and England-Fiji quarterfinals were never going to match their counterparts for quality or intrigue, their respective 12- and six-point winning margins ensured a true sense of jeopardy.

Last year's World Cup quarterfinals aren't alone in this regard. At the 2015 World Cup the Wallabies snuck past Scotland 35-34 in a highly controversial finish that concluded with referee Craig Joubert running from the field in panic. Argentina stunned an injury-ravaged Ireland in Cardiff. And the All Blacks summoned one of their finest World Cup performances to extract revenge on France.

The quarterfinal stage of any tournament seeks to captivate attention and elevate the stakes.

Despite the notion of no tomorrow, no second chance, quarterfinals often conjure more expressive freedom, more wow moments, than semifinals or the last dance final as rising tension tends to constrict attacking instincts and instead favour defensive battles as the knockout stages progress to the defining juncture.

Compare those aforementioned quarterfinals to Super Rugby Pacific's this weekend, and the southern hemisphere's pinnacle domestic tournament's flaws are laid bare.

At least two, possibly three, of Super Rugby's four quarterfinals appear forgone conclusions, with the Blues and Hurricanes expected to romp past the soon-to-be-defunct Melbourne Rebels and Fijian Drua, the latter yet to win away from home this season.

That a team such as the Rebels, who lost their last six games to finish with a 5-9 record, can be rewarded with the final place in the postseason speaks to the folly of Super Rugby's top eight finals format integrity issues.

For any elite, professional competition the quarterfinal stage should generate more interest, not less. It should, in broadcast parlance, deliver premium content.

To achieve that, there must be a true sense of jeopardy that at least two of Super Rugby's quarterfinals do not in any way project.

To put this weekend in perspective there's a high chance the Blues will welcome a smaller crowd to their quarterfinal than the 22,000 Eden Park hosted for last weekend's final regular season victory against the Chiefs.

Thankfully, finally, change is imminent for Super Rugby's much-maligned playoff format.

Eight of 12 teams reaching the finals damages Super Rugby's credibility. Eight of 11 teams making the cut is laughable. This is why next year, following the Rebels' exit, two alternate playoff systems are on the table.

The first, and likely favoured option, is ushering in the widely touted six-team model that would reward the top two finishers with the first week of the finals off.

The second follows the NFL's seven-team playoff blueprint, with the top qualifier earning a week's rest, and the three quarterfinals determining the semifinal qualifiers.

Both models should, in theory at least, inject more much-needed jeopardy into the playoffs - rather than this weekend's expectations for two of the four quarterfinals to fall flat.

The Chiefs-Reds quarterfinal is the clear standout contest, despite Australia's horror 0-15 record in playoff matches in New Zealand, with the Highlanders at long odds to upset the Brumbies in Canberra.

While the Rebels' demise is unfortunate for those involved, it should improve overall competitiveness by concentrating Australia's talent base.

The Melbourne franchise's financial plight - they are far from alone - proves Australia never had the player depth or money to support five teams.

Any odd number of teams leaves a dysfunctional draw, however. With the runway too short to immediately solve that 11-team issue next year's Super Rugby will, therefore, require the season to start earlier and run longer to accommodate every team needing to satisfy two byes - one every weekend.

For that reason, organisers are intent on including a 12th team for 2026 and beyond.

Reinstating Argentina's Jaguares remains a live option but travel and cost challenges are seen as barriers. Luring an established League One team from Japan is the preference but may prove a pipe dream.

All the while dark clouds hover over Moana Pasifika's future due to their compromised financial model and lack of a home base.

Another pressing factor is broadcast negotiations.

Australia desperately needs an uplift from its last underwhelming deal and there are fears New Zealand could see a reduction on its last record windfall from Sky TV.

Broadcasters aren't in the business of paying more for less which adds significant pressure to reestablish a 12-team competition posthaste.

As this year's competition reaches the pointy end, off the field the heat is on administrators to find swift, credible solutions.