The UConn Huskies and San Diego State Aztecs will face off Monday night from NRG Stadium in Houston for the chance to make history.
After one of the most exciting tournaments in recent memory, it all comes down to the NCAA championship game as the Aztecs look to win their first title, while UConn looks to secure its first in nine years. The Huskies have won each of their previous four appearances in the title game (1999, 2004, 2011 and 2014).
Our betting experts have got you covered Monday night, with tips and picks to help you make smart wagering decisions.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
(5) San Diego State vs. (4) UConn
7 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
Line: UConn (-7)
Money Line: San Diego State (-350) UConn (+275)
Total: 132.5 points BPI projected winner: UConn (74.3)
UConn opened as 7-point favorites over San Diego State and has dominated its opponents throughout the tournament. What are your thoughts on the total and spread and how do you see this game playing out?
Doug Kezirian: If I had to play it, I would lay the points. UConn just looks too formidable on both ends. The Huskies have enough size to prevent the Aztecs from dominating the boards and creating extra possessions. Offensively, they have multiple guys who can shoot from distance, and their polished half-court offense creates plenty of opportunities for Adama Sanogo on the blocks. It's one game, the point spread is quite high, and the Aztecs have found a way to grind out wins, so it's hard to envision them losing convincingly. But UConn has covered every game in this tourney. I am passing, but UConn probably covers.
Jeff Borzello: I lean toward what Doug said. The spread feels really solid, but if it goes one way, I think it would be UConn covering. Because of the way San Diego State plays -- low number of possessions, game played mostly in the half-court -- the Aztecs should be able to stay in the game regardless. UConn has won all 16 of its games against non-Big East opponents by double digits, while San Diego State has lost only one game by double-digits -- and that was at the Maui Invitational back in late December. But the Huskies are built to win at different tempos, their defense is operating at an incredibly high level right now and Andre Jackson will be able to not only neutralize Matt Bradley but jump-start their transition game.
Tyler Fulghum: I would lay the points with UConn ... but also think there is some value in attacking the team totals. UConn's offense has scored 70-plus points in every game it has played in this tournament. Despite San Diego State's physically imposing defense, I think the Huskies can dictate the tempo and game script and go over 69.5 points.
Joe Fortenbaugh: UConn -7. No reason to deboard this train now. The Huskies have won their five tournament matchups by an average of 20.6 points. San Diego State just knocked down 50 percent of their 3-pointers in that come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic. Do we see that happening again for a team that shot below the national average from 3-point range during the season? I think not. Look for UConn's free throw shooting to be the difference in this one.
Erin Dolan: I'd have to lay the points with the Huskies. UConn was immediately bet up for a reason. The Huskies have covered every game in this tournament. The Huskies have covered every game in this tournament, beating the spread by an average of 16 PPG, which is the second-best mark by any team entering the national title game since 1985. UConn ranks in the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. San Diego State has a great defense, but that crumbled in the first half against Florida Atlantic, helping snap the Aztecs' 12-game under streak.
Anita Marks: UConn -7. San Diego State's offense does not even come close to Gonzaga and Miami -- and those games were blowouts for the Huskies. The Aztecs were very fortunate to beat Creighton and FAU. They have averaged 66 PPG but won't be able to put up more than 65 against the Huskies. They needed 12 offensive rebounds vs. FAU and won't get that vs UConn. The Huskies are ranked 20th in defensive rebounding percentage, beat teams by a plus-20 ppg and plus-10 RPG advantage. They have dominated teams with a variety of styles, have a ton of depth and are the most complete team in the tourney.