Do you think the early PPR adopters knew what would happen to the WR and TE positions when they pushed hard for video game scoring? Also, how do I make sure someone from product doesn't see this question?
Gone are the days of waiting on a receiver. Even top-tier tight ends are coming off of draft boards before the fifth round. That's what happens when 1,000+ yard seasons and double-digit receiving scores become commonplace. Fantasy managers, however, can't become complacent. Identifying potential peaks and valleys in the market is key to winning.
That's why Daniel Dopp and Liz Loza are back to uncover some potential pass-catching pitfalls and, of course, prop until we drop.
Vegas has thoughts. We have answers.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings O/U 1,375.5 receiving yards
Liz: JJetta cleared 1,400 yards as a rookie (back when teams played only 16 games in a regular season). His total receiving yards have increased by about 200 each year that he's been in the league. Coming off of a dominant season, in which he led the position with 1,809 receiving yards (just ahead of Tyreek Hill who managed 1,710) it's hard to imagine he won't flirt with 1,500 this go-around. Jefferson might find himself more regularly pestered by defenders with Adam Thielen gone to Carolina, but the increase in targets figures to cancel out any potential inefficiencies. (Plus, I have a feeling Jordan Addison's pro legs will be underneath him relatively soon.) Liz, you had me at "JJetta cleared 1,400 yards as ROOKIE." That's exactly what I was going to say. He's hit this mark every year of his career and he's still getting better. No reason to drag this one out. I'm taking the OVER! (and the first overall pick in any and all drafts, as well).
Daniel: Liz, you had me at "JJetta cleared 1,400 yards as rookie." That's exactly what I was going to say. He's hit this mark every year of his career and he's still getting better. No reason to drag this one out. I'm taking the OVER!
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 900.5 receiving yards
Daniel: I gotta be honest -- this one is much more of a gut call. Ridley has only beat 1,000 receiving yards one time. That season, he beat it by almost 500 yards, so we know he has the talent. The question is, will he really be the WR1 of this Jaguars offense? Last year, Christian Kirk led the team with 1108 receiving yards. Zay Jones also had a pretty legit season with 82 receptions for 823 receiving yards. I know Marvin Jones is gone, but he only accounted for 500 yards last year... Still, I'm a believer in the kid and everything he brings to the field. He's ready to prove himself and I can't wait to see it -- give me the OVER.
Liz: Love the passion, DD. And I, too, want to believe. But I'm hesitant. Ridley has been away from the game for nearly two years. While reports from camp are overwhelmingly positive, there are still three other mouths to feed in this offense. I just don't feel comfortable hammering the above line. Give me the reluctant UNDER (it's about 75 yards to high for me to bet).
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints O/U 4.5 receiving touchdowns
Liz: How is my Must Have Player of 2023 only supposed to score 4-5 touchdowns? What a tilt! Olave is the ESPN consensus ranked WR15 overall (I have him WR13). Terry McLaurin was the only wideout to record fewer than 6 TDs and still finish inside the top-15 fantasy producers at the position last year (WR14 overall with a 77-1191-5 stat line). It's hard to imagine the Ohio State product -- who managed 4 TDs as a rookie -- won't see an increase in high value looks while improving his conversion rate in the red zone. Derek Carr may not be a world beater, but he's better than Andy Dalton. Furthermore, the Saints have the best (i.e. easiest) strength of schedule in the whole league. Those factors alone (and some admittedly big feelings) have me hammering the OVER.
Daniel: Knowing that Olave hit 4 receiving TDs last year as a rookie and just like you said, he'll have a more aggressive quarterback throwing him the ball this year, it's hard to imagine he won't hit this mark. I'm in the positive mood right now... give me the OVER!
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers O/U 875.5 receiving yards
Daniel: Well, this is a tough one. Allen had bested this number for five consecutive seasons coming into last year. On top of that, he was on pace to beat this last year if he had played a full 16 games. But I guess that's the question isn't it. Allen, who turned 31 in April, isn't getting any younger. He missed 6 games last year, after missing only 2 games over the previous five seasons combined. On the other hand, the Chargers have added Kellen Moore and we expect him to keep Justin Herbert throwing early and often. On the other other hand, the Chargers also drafted Quentin Johnston of the first round of this year's draft and he'll start fighting his way into this offense. I'm still on team Allen to beat this mark as the main slot receiver in this offense. Give me the OVER.
Liz: All of those hands deserve a round of applause, Daniel! As you detailed, there's a lot going on with Allen and the Chargers. The team is clearly in a state of transition and Allen (who is signed through 2024, but who has a potential out in his deal at the close of this season) appears to be in the "bridge" phase of his Bolts era. Allen had been ultra-reliable for the five years prior to 2022. So, was his last campaign a sign of things to come or just a blip on the final phase of his pro career? I lean towards the latter. Allen has proven that he can bounce back from injury and while Johnston is the future, Keenan is still the now. I don't foresee another 1,000 yard effort, but do think he clears 876 receiving yards. I'm going with the OVER.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 5.5 receiving touchdowns
Liz: Evans is expected to have a down year with Tom Brady officially-officially retiring. The above line, however, feels like an over reaction. Are we all forgetting about the numerous missed connections between Brady and Evans last year? Evans drew a catchable target rate of around 74% (WR65 range) for the three years that Brady was under center. Stunningly, Evans' catchable target rate was slightly higher in 2018 (when he managed 8 TDs over 16 games) with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (75.5%). The offense figures to be more run-focused and less efficient with Baker Mayfield at the helm, but Evans is still a contested catch monster who shines in the red area of the field. He can convert on at least 6 Hail Mary's with the Bucs chasing points. Give me the OVER.
Daniel: Liz, we are drinking the same Mike Evans Kool-Aid! I've been known to hate on Mr. Evans when talking about his boom/bust nature for fantasy, but -- I just checked, he 's still 6-foot-5 -- so he's still a giant in the painted area that's cleared 5.5 TDs in seven of his nine seasons. I feel quite confident he can do it with Mayfield. I'm taking the OVER!
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs O/U 9.5 receiving touchdowns
Daniel: You know what... I don't love this one. Kelce's been the top tight end in football, especially fantasy, for almost a decade. The dude defies the position. He's hit this mark in four of his last five seasons, but I don't love it this year. I hate to be the guy that says something negative about Travis Kelce, but he's 33 years old -- turning 34 in October -- and he hasn't really missed much time in his career. Kelce didn't play as a rookie, so here's his games played for the last 9 seasons: 16, 16, 16, 15, 16, 16, 15, 16, 17. He's a machine! He's never been hit or miss. He's as consistent as it gets. But he's about to be a 34 year old machine and sooner or later, time's gonna catch up. Ugh. I hate even saying that cause the game is better with Kelce in it, especially on 3rd and long. But I'm shocked at the consistency of his availability as a 33 year old tight end. It's incredible. But... this can't last forever, unfortunately, so I'm taking the UNDER.
Liz: Whoa! I did not anticipate a Kelce UNDER near the end of our column this week... but here we are! Apologies for the womp, womp, folks. Kelce has managed double-digit TDs in three of his last five efforts (with Patrick Mahomes under center). He's also coming off of a 12 receiving score campaign. However, he could record 9 spikes (like he did in 2021) and still lead the position in TDs and overall fantasy scoring. The red area of the field is too fluky for me to assume a 10+ end zone conversions. I'm going with the UNDER, too.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills O/U 425.5 receiving yards
Liz: I feel attacked! I've spent much of July and August hyping Kincaid as a late-round sleeper at the position. I'm also painfully aware that he's a rookie and expectations for a first-year tight end should be tempered. But this is also a player who recorded the second-most receiving yards (809) among FBS TEs in 2022. Furthermore, the Bills traded up to make Kincaid the first tight end selected (No. 25 overall) this past April. He is going to make an immediate (i.e. first-year) impact on a fairly thin receiving corps, but I'm hesitant to believe the breakout occurs over the first five weeks of the season. While a 500 receiving yard season is within Kincaid's range of possible outcomes, it's more probable to believe he'll finish the year below this line. I'm taking the UNDER.
Daniel: Liz, I don't love your honest and realistic perspective, but it's simliar to how I feel. In fantasy football, we know how difficult it is to rely on rookie tight ends for production. I want to take the over because I'm excited about the upside this kid has, potentially being the #2 pass-catcher in this offense... you know what, no. I will not let your negativity tear me down, I'm going with the OVER!