The second week of May seems pretty early for a de facto elimination final, but that's how Sunday's clash between Adelaide and Brisbane is being described in some quarters.
This was supposed to be the season the Lions finally cashed in on five years of finals under Chris Fagan, but it's rapidly turning into a disaster, first form eluding last year's runner-up, and now injuries cutting a swathe through Brisbane's list.
Adelaide, meanwhile, were the proverbial non-finalist with a bullet, widely expected to shoot up the charts in 2024 with some added experience and just a tiny bit more luck in close finishes.
Now they meet in Round 9 occupying a lowly 12th and 13th on the AFL ladder, both with just three wins to their name from eight games and potentially as much as three games outside the eight by Sunday evening.
There's been much theorising about the issues of both the Crows and Lions, but the single most fundamental of them cuts to the heart of what the game is essentially about. Scoring.
Indeed, the single most stark difference between Adelaide and Brisbane of last year and this is the goals they kicked in 2023 and are kicking no longer.
It was the Crows who were the No.1 ranked scoring team last year, averaging 95.3 points per game, nearly two goals more than the competition average of 83.7. Brisbane ranked No.2 behind Adelaide, averaging 94.8 points per game.
But the goals have dried up for both, and those rankings have nosedived. Adelaide now ranks 12th for points scored at an average 77.4, around three goals per game less than last year. Brisbane is currently a dismal 14th for scores at an average 74.5, more than 20 points less per game than in 2023.
Interestingly, both teams have, despite their lack of victories so far this season, still improved their ranking for fewest points conceded, the Crows lifting their defensive rating from ninth to sixth, Brisbane sixth to fifth. Have they focused too much on improving weaknesses at the expense of capitalizing on their strongest suit?
Perhaps, in Adelaide's case, it's more about trying to second-guess potential problems if the numbers are a guide, aside from the more obvious early indifferent form of key forward pair Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty.
According to Champion Data, Adelaide last year had the greatest amount of what were classed difficult shots at goal, obviously managing to nail enough of them to end up the highest-scoring team in the competition.
But in 2024, perhaps not wanting to count on its goalkicking accuracy being above par, the Crows have had a higher percentage of "gettable" shots.
Yet by manufacturing more shots from more orthodox positions, Adelaide has also arguably been more predictable in attack, which has made it easier for opposition defences to read their intent, a good example when the Crows played Geelong in Round 3 and All-Australian defender Tom Stewart kept picking off Adelaide attacks with intercept marks. Adelaide, consequently, which last year also ranked first for scores per inside 50, is now 14th.
For Brisbane, though, the biggest issue is even more frustratingly simple. Inaccuracy.
The Lions last year ranked first on the differentials for inside 50s and third for the time in forward half differential. They're still first for the former, and now first for the latter statistic as well.
But the telltale numbers here for Brisbane are the drop in rankings in scores from turnovers from first to second-last, which makes sense when you consider the Lions' appalling accuracy, at the moment just 44%, easily the worst figure in the competition.
In its last three games against Geelong, GWS and Gold Coast, Brisbane has racked up the astonishingly inaccurate tally of 22.43.
The effect is twofold. Not only are the Lions not taking their opportunities to score goals. But with each behind and resultant opposition kick-in comes more time spent with lots of congestion around the Brisbane forward 50 as the Lions try to pressure the opponent into error and turnovers, paradoxically making it harder to score.
Charlie Cameron was converting at around 70% over 2022-23, and Joe Daniher comfortably over 60%. At the moment, both are going at well under 50.
All is not yet lost for Adelaide or Brisbane. The Crows, particularly, are looking better, having won three of their past four games and losing the other by a kick, and twice topping the 100-point mark in doing so with both Walker and Fogarty in much better form.
And while Brisbane didn't hit the target against Gold Coast last week, it did at least generate 29 scores, the most in any game this season other than the demolition of North Melbourne.
But in the lead-up to Sunday's crucial clash between these two teams, when the question asked is how can the Crows and Lions still turn things around, what might in other circumstances sound like a bit of smart-arsery will this time merely be a statement of fact. And the answer, of course, is simply "by kicking more goals".
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.