Way back in April, before the NFL draft and training camps and the preseason, I picked the Jacksonville Jaguars to go 7-9 in 2015.
One of the qualifiers I put on that record was that quarterback Blake Bortles make progress from what was, statistically, anyway, a pretty poor rookie season: 11 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions and a quarterback rating that ranked 33rd.
Based on what we've seen in training camp and the preseason, there's no reason to back off on the 7-9 prediction. There's also no reason to bump it up.
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13, Carolina, 1 p.m.
I picked the Jaguars to win this game in April, and I feel even better about their chances now that the Panthers won't have WR Kelvin Benjamin (torn ACL). Carolina won the NFC South last season, but they were 7-8-1 in the worst division and had a playoff victory over an Arizona team that was without its starting running back and was on its fourth quarterback. Jaguars 27, Panthers 24. Record: 1-0.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 20, Miami, 4:05 p.m.
QB Ryan Tannehill has had a good preseason, and there's a lot of optimism in Miami that the Dolphins will finally be able to overtake the Patriots in the AFC East. Even though the Jaguars' offensive line appears to have improved, it'll be hard to deal with Ndamukong Suh. Dolphins 17, Jaguars 7. Record: 1-1.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27, at New England, 1 p.m.
Things would have been easier for the Jaguars had Tom Brady's suspension been upheld, but he's playing and that makes the Patriots' offense one of the hardest to stop. There are just too many weapons for the Jaguars' defense to handle, especially with a pass rush that's struggling to get any pressure because of injuries. Patriots 31, Jaguars 12. Record: 1-2.
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4, at Indianapolis, 1 p.m.
The Jaguars have lost five in a row to the Colts by a combined score of 161-43. Quarterback Andrew Luck is 5-1 against the Jaguars, with the lone loss coming in just his third professional game. The offense is even better with the addition of Andre Johnson and Frank Gore. Even with an improved Bortles, TE Julius Thomas and emerging WR Allen Robinson, the Jaguars aren't equipped to win a shootout. Colts 37, Jaguars 17. Record: 1-3.
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 11, at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.
Even if the Jaguars' pass rush continues to struggle as it has in the preseason (especially if DE Andre Branch isn't back from his MCL sprain), the Jaguars have to like their matchup against rookie QB Jameis Winston. He has been up and down in the preseason. Jaguars 27, Buccaneers 7. Record: 2-3.
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18, Houston, 1 p.m.
The Jaguars feel better about LT Luke Joeckel and really like RT Jermey Parnell, whom they signed away from Dallas. They'll both have to handle J.J. Watt one-on-one at times. They'll need to win some of those battles, because it'll be hard to get help from the inside because of Vince Wilfork. If the Jaguars can keep Watt off Bortles, they can win this game. Jaguars 21, Texans 14. Record: 3-3.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 25, vs. Buffalo (London), 9:30 a.m.
The Bills should have one of the league's best defenses, especially up front. I don't like the quarterback situation. Neither EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor nor Matt Cassel does much to scare a defense. I also think the Jaguars' experience in making the trip overseas will help them, too. This will be Buffalo's first trip. Jaguars 28, Bills 16. Record: 4-3.
Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1: BYE.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 8, at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
The Jets are actually a better team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback instead of Geno Smith. However, we're not even out of the preseason and the Jets seem to already be imploding. You also have to wonder if Todd Bowles will be able to keep things together by this point. Jaguars 17, Jets 7. Record: 5-3.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15, at Baltimore, 1 p.m.
This was a weird game in 2014. The Jaguars converted a fake punt and an onside kick but were hurt by eight sacks and some key drops and lost by eight points. With a better offense, the Jaguars will make this competitive, but this is the time of year that Joe Flacco starts heating up for his playoff run. Ravens 30, Jaguars 20. Record: 5-4.
Week 11: Thursday, Nov. 19, Tennessee, 8:25 p.m.
Very few people thought that Marcus Mariota would look better than Jameis Winston, but that's exactly what has happened during the preseason. Still, this is a favorable matchup for the Jaguars, because the Titans aren't exactly explosive on offense. Plus, as bad as the Jaguars have been the past two seasons, they're unbeaten on Thursday nights (2-0). Jaguars 32, Titans 24. Record: 6-4.
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 29, San Diego, 1 p.m.
Philip Rivers has absolutely dominated the Jaguars the past two seasons, completing 78.4 percent of his passes for 662 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. Chargers 34, Jaguars 24. Record: 6-5.
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6, at Tennessee, 1 p.m.
The Jaguars have swept the season series only twice (1997 and 2005), so logic says the sweep won't happen in 2015. Plus, I'm expecting Mariota to be harder to handle at the end of the season. Titans 20, Jaguars 13. Record: 6-6.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 13, Indianapolis, 1 p.m.
The Colts should have the division wrapped up at this point, but they'll be in the hunt for the No. 1 seed, which would be huge so they can avoid going to New England in the postseason. The Colts will get their seventh victory in a row over the Jaguars. Colts 31, Jaguars 17. Record: 6-7.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 20, Atlanta, 1 p.m.
The Falcons have given up the most yards per game (388.8) and third-most passing yards (261.7) and rushing yards (127.1) per game in the NFL over the past two seasons. They've also allowed 26.9 points per game, which ranks 28th. The Jaguars' offense, especially the passing game, looks significantly better and should be able to score points against the Falcons. Jaguars 35, Falcons 24. Record: 7-7.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 27, at New Orleans, 1 p.m.
The Saints lost one of the league's top tight ends in Jimmy Graham, but WR Brandin Cooks could be on the verge of a breakout season. QB Drew Brees makes the difference. Saints 28, Jaguars 25. Record: 7-8.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Houston, 1 p.m.
With WR Andre Johnson gone, it's time for WR DeAndre Hopkins to take over as the Texans' No. 1 receiver. The question mark is whether Brian Hoyer (or Ryan Mallett) can consistently get him the ball. Hopkins is a deep threat, and the Jaguars had trouble defending deep throws last season. They may be better this season, but we'll have to wait and see. Texans 20, Jaguars 17. Record: 7-9.